282
FXUS66 KOTX 312154
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
154 PM PST SAT JAN 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER.
- DRY AND QUIET WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
A MILDER PATTERN WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY. SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED FOR MOUNTAIN PASSES. THE FORECAST THEN TRENDS DRIER
AGAIN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: THE INLAND NORTHWEST IS UNDER A DIRTY
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. WHAT MAKES THE RIDGE "DIRTY" IS A SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING NORTHWARD OFF OF THE WEST
COAST BRINGING HIGH TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BAND. THE WARM FRONT CAN GENERALLY BE
TRACED FROM AROUND LEWISTON TO THE NORTH CASCADES AT 1:00 PM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WITH THIS FRONT THAT THE EXPECTATION WILL BE FOR VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS IT
CONTINUES TO SLIDE ACROSS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. PLACES LIKE REPUBLIC, COLVILLE, NORTHPORT,
SANDPOINT, AND BONNERS FERRY MAY PICK UP SOME SPRINKLES OR
ENOUGH RAIN TO WET THE SURFACE, BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. MID LEVELS
THEN DRY BACK OUT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON SUNDAY WILL BRING WITH IT BETTER DYNAMICS AND
WILL MORE LIKELY SQUEEZE OUT MOISTURE ALONG THE MOISTURE PLUME
AS IT SLIDES ACROSS WEST TO EAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL FAVOR THE
CASCADE CREST, NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH A PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE
BETWEEN 60-80%. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHER AT THE CASCADE
CREST WITH A GREATER THAN 70% PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST A HALF OF
AN INCH OF LIQUID. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BETWEEN 4,000-4,500 FEET
RESULTING WET SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR STEVENS PASS WITH
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES IF THAT CONSIDERING
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITAITON WILL BE FALLING DURING
DAYLIGHT HOURS. PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AWAY FROM THE CASCADES ACROSS NORTHEAST
WASHINGTON AND IN THE IDAHO PANHANDLE WHERE THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WILL SEE A 40-70% CHANCE OF ONLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE 500-1,000 FEET HIGHER THAN
OVER THE CASCADES WHERE SNOW WILL MAINLY ONLY BE OBSERVED AT THE
HIGHER PEAKS, AND UNLIKELY TO SEE IMPACTS FOR TRAVEL OVER
LOOKOUT PASS.
IT WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY ON SUNDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
INCREASING TO 8-12 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS THE
EXPOSED AREAS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES REMAINING MILD AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST DAY OF FEBRUARY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH ON
MONDAY. THIS ONE WILL CONTINUE TO SQUASH THE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING WILL TAKE PLACE AS
THIS DISTURBANCE DOES SO. AS SUCH, WE WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE CASCADES AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN ZONES. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A BIT LOWER RANGING BETWEEN
3,000-4,000 FEET, BUT A LACK OF MOISTURE WILL LIMIT TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL LITTLE TO NO TRAVEL IMPACTS
EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES INCLUDING STEVENS PASS.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: THE LONGWAVE HEIGHT PATTERN IS EXTREMELY
PERSISTENT WITH TROUGHING OF LOWER PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
AND OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IN BETWEEN LIES THE WEST COAST, AND A
STRONG RIDGE OF PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE PUMPED BACK UP FOR NEXT WEEK.
ENSEMBLES ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR A ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE
TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHEN THE NATIONAL BLEND
OF MODELS (NBM) INDICATES PROBABILITIES OF 20-30% CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AS MOISTURE RIDES UP THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TEND TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE BREAKING DOWN
STRONG RIDGES LIKE WHAT WE'LL SEE NEXT WEEK, SO I HAVE MY DOUBTS
THAT THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING PRECIPITATION MOVING IN BY
SATURDAY WILL VERIFY. A RIDGE OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL RESULT IN A
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL START
OUT MOIST AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE TOP. THE LIKELY
SCENARIO IS WE WILL SEE A LOT OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS UNDER THE
RIDGE. THE STRATUS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE SURFACE
AT NIGHT AND THIS TENDS TO RESULT IN HIGH ENOUGH MIXING HEIGHTS
THAT AIR STAGNATION DOESN'T LOOK TO BE A BIG CONCERN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AND ABOVE NORMAL. /SVH
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: A MIX OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL HOLD FIRM IN THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TODAY
WITH IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THIS INCLUDES AIRPORTS
FROM KMWH-KEAT-KS52-KOMK-K63S. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON WILL ERODE THE STRATUS
DECK ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY TODAY AND
IMPROVING FROM IFR/MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KGEG/KSFF
KCOE BY EARLY AFTERNOON (19-21Z) TODAY. A WARM FRONT PASSING
THROUGH TODAY WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, BUT NOT
MOIST NOR DYNAMIC ENOUGH FOR MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION WITH IT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AT KGEG/KSFF/KCOE WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY 19-21Z. WHERE
CONFIDENCE DECREASES IS IF THE STRATUS/FOG DISSIPATES OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN. THERE IS A 30-50% CHANCE
FOR LOW CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT AT KMWH BETWEEN 23-01Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING, BUT PROBABILITIES FOR CEILINGS TO
LIFT AT KEAT ARE LESS THAN A 30% CHANCE TODAY AND TONIGHT. /SVH
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 33 44 33 46 34 47 / 0 40 20 20 10 0
COEUR D'ALENE 34 45 34 44 35 47 / 0 50 40 20 20 0
PULLMAN 37 46 34 47 36 49 / 0 30 10 10 10 0
LEWISTON 39 52 37 51 39 53 / 0 10 10 10 10 0
COLVILLE 32 43 33 42 33 46 / 0 70 20 40 20 0
SANDPOINT 35 42 36 41 35 44 / 10 60 60 40 40 0
KELLOGG 39 47 38 44 37 48 / 0 50 60 40 30 10
MOSES LAKE 32 45 31 46 33 50 / 0 30 0 10 10 0
WENATCHEE 36 44 34 44 36 46 / 0 50 10 30 10 0
OMAK 36 42 34 42 35 43 / 0 30 0 20 10 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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