897
FXUS66 KOTX 010853
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1253 AM PST SUN FEB 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER.
- DRY AND MILD TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SYNOPSIS
A MILDER PATTERN WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY. SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED FOR MOUNTAIN PASSES. THE FORECAST THEN TRENDS DRIER
AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: A FAST MOVING MID LEVEL WAVE WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, REACHING THE CASCADES THIS
MORNING, AND THEN EASTERN WA/ID PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. UNTIL THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF MORNING FOG HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AND SPOKANE/COEUR D'ALENE
AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING. A BRIEF SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE, EXCEPT THE
CASCADE CREST WHERE MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP UPSLOPE
SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. THE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
AROUND 4000-4500 FEET IN THE CASCADES WITH AROUND 1-2 INCHES OF
SNOW FOR STEVENS PASS. BUT WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
FALLING DURING THE DAY AND MARGINAL TEMPERATURES IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINOR. LOOKOUT PASS HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR DUSTING
OF SNOW WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED. THIS WAVE EXITS TONIGHT
WITH PRECIPITATION IN THE CASCADES AND ID PANHANDLE DECREASING
IN THE EVENING. THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES ON MONDAY WITH AGAIN MID
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW FAVORING THE CASCADES AND ID PANHANDLE FOR
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS AGAIN
FORECAST.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A BUILDING
RIDGE LEADING TO A WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
ONE CAVEAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
WHICH COULD HOLD DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO FORECAST
(BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL). RIGHT NOW STRATUS LOOKS ESPECIALLY
FAVORED FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEYS, CASCADE VALLEYS, AND AROUND
THE MOSES LAKE AREA. FOR THE PALOUSE AND LC VALLEY DOWNSLOPE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN MILD TEMPERATURES
COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S. ON SATURDAY THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE THIS MAY BE THE TRANSITION DAY BEFORE
POTENTIALLY A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR NEXT WEEK. JW
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN EXPANSIVE AREA
OF STRATUS OF IFR AND MVFR STRATUS FROM KEAT DOWN INTO THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND INTO THE MOSES
LAKE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE OVER NE WA
INTO THE N IDAHO PANHANDLE A MIX OF CONDITIONS IS OCCURRING, BUT
VFR AS OF 05Z AT KGEG/KSFF/KCOE. HOWEVER SHALLOW FOG IS FORMING
AROUND THE SPOKANE AREA, WITH NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
FAVORING SOME EXPANSION INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OVER SE WASHINGTON
INTO THE LEWISTON AREA DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS CONTINUE
WITH VFR CONDITIONS. ON SUNDAY A PASSING MID LEVEL FRONT WILL
SWITCH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL ADVECT THE
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE COLUMBIA BASIN INTO NE WA/N IDAHO
PANHANDLE WITH INCREASING IFR/MVFR STRATUS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MEANWHILE SOME DRYING WITH INCREASED WEST-SOUTHWEST
WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO HELP CLEAR OUT
KEAT/KMWH WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH DEGREE OF SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT AROUND
KGEG/KSFF TONIGHT, WITH HIGH CLOUDS MASKING COVERAGE THIS
EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE TIMING OF WHEN STRATUS
EXPANDS INTO KMWH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
KPUW/KLWS REMAINS VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z SUNDAY. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN ADVECTING INTO NE
WA/N IDAHO SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHWEST WIND SHIFT, BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER CIGS LOWER TO IFR OR MVFR. JW
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 44 32 45 33 47 34 / 50 10 20 10 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 45 34 45 35 47 35 / 60 40 30 10 0 0
PULLMAN 46 34 47 36 50 36 / 30 10 10 10 0 0
LEWISTON 52 36 50 38 53 39 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 43 32 41 33 45 33 / 70 20 50 10 0 0
SANDPOINT 42 36 41 35 43 35 / 70 60 40 30 0 0
KELLOGG 48 37 44 38 48 37 / 60 60 40 20 10 0
MOSES LAKE 47 31 46 33 50 34 / 40 0 10 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 45 34 44 36 45 36 / 50 0 30 10 0 0
OMAK 41 34 41 35 43 36 / 40 0 20 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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