494
FXUS66 KOTX 011922
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1122 AM PST SUN FEB 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER.
- DRY AND MILD TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SYNOPSIS
A MILDER PATTERN WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY. SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED FOR MOUNTAIN PASSES. THE FORECAST THEN TRENDS DRIER
AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
UPDATE (AT 1055 AM): A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PUSHING ACROSS EASTERN
WASHINGTON LATE THIS MORNING. FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT IS
PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT FOR LIGHT PRECIPITAITON IN THE LEE OF THE
CASCADES WITH UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS REPORTED FROM WENATCHEE TO
OMAK AND INTO THE MOSES LAKE AREA. PROBABILITY FOR MEASUREABLE
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN INCREASED FOR THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
EXTREME EASTERN WASHINGTON AND INTO THE IDAHO PANHANDLE UP TO A
PROBABILITY OF 70-90% FOR SPOKANE/COEUR D'ALENE, COLVILLE, AND
SANDPOINT AND BETWEEN 40-60% CHANCE FOR PULLMAN/MOSCOW.
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS LIGHT RAIN. INCREASED MIXING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT HAS ALSO LIFTED THE FOG ACROSS THE SPOKANE AREA WITH
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRING AT 1100 AM. /SVH
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: A FAST MOVING MID LEVEL WAVE WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, REACHING THE CASCADES THIS
MORNING, AND THEN EASTERN WA/ID PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. UNTIL THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF MORNING FOG HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AND SPOKANE/COEUR D'ALENE
AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING. A BRIEF SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE, EXCEPT THE
CASCADE CREST WHERE MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP UPSLOPE
SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. THE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
AROUND 4000-4500 FEET IN THE CASCADES WITH AROUND 1-2 INCHES OF
SNOW FOR STEVENS PASS. BUT WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
FALLING DURING THE DAY AND MARGINAL TEMPERATURES IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINOR. LOOKOUT PASS HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR DUSTING
OF SNOW WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED. THIS WAVE EXITS TONIGHT
WITH PRECIPITATION IN THE CASCADES AND ID PANHANDLE DECREASING
IN THE EVENING. THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES ON MONDAY WITH AGAIN MID
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW FAVORING THE CASCADES AND ID PANHANDLE FOR
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS AGAIN
FORECAST.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A BUILDING
RIDGE LEADING TO A WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
ONE CAVEAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
WHICH COULD HOLD DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO FORECAST
(BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL). RIGHT NOW STRATUS LOOKS ESPECIALLY
FAVORED FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEYS, CASCADE VALLEYS, AND AROUND
THE MOSES LAKE AREA. FOR THE PALOUSE AND LC VALLEY DOWNSLOPE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN MILD TEMPERATURES
COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S. ON SATURDAY THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE THIS MAY BE THE TRANSITION DAY BEFORE
POTENTIALLY A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR NEXT WEEK. JW
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: A FRONTAL BAND WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST TODAY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT
IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH KMWH TO KOMK LATE THIS MORNING. THE
SHORT TERM EFFECTS OF THIS FRONT WILL BE TO MIX OUT THE FOG
THAT SETTLE IN ACROSS THE BASIN AND VALLEYS. IT WILL TAKE A
COUPLE MORE HOURS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR KDEW TO KSZT TO
SEE THE FOG MIX OUT. THE LIGHT RAIN WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY DOWN
TO BETWEEN 1-4 KFT AGL. WITH THE RAIN INTO THIS EVENING. SOME
WESTERLY WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE SUSTAINED TO BETWEEN
8-12 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS FOR KGEG TO KCOE AND AT KPUW BY
MID AFTERNOON. A REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND STRATUS WITH IFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOR THE EASTERN COLUMBIA BASIN, NORTHEAST WASHINGTON,
AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE (KGEG/KSFF/K63S/KDEW/KCOE/KSZT/KPUW). A
DECREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN
LOW CLOUDS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS INTO KMWH AND
KEAT THROUGH THE MORNING ON MONDAY AS WELL.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AT KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW
WITH INCREASING RAIN AFTER 21Z TODAY. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THAT STRATUS WILL MIX OUT AT KEAT AND KMWH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A 20-40% CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS HOLDING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. /SVH
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 44 32 45 33 46 33 / 70 30 20 10 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 45 35 45 35 47 33 / 70 60 30 10 0 0
PULLMAN 46 34 47 37 51 36 / 50 30 20 10 0 0
LEWISTON 52 36 52 39 55 38 / 20 10 10 0 0 0
COLVILLE 43 32 40 32 45 33 / 80 30 60 10 0 0
SANDPOINT 42 35 40 34 44 35 / 80 80 50 30 0 0
KELLOGG 48 37 44 38 49 36 / 70 80 30 20 0 0
MOSES LAKE 47 30 44 32 49 33 / 50 0 20 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 45 35 42 35 44 36 / 70 0 40 0 0 0
OMAK 42 34 41 34 43 36 / 60 10 40 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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