096
FXUS66 KOTX 012228
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
228 PM PST SUN FEB 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER.
- DRY AND MILD TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SYNOPSIS
A MILDER PATTERN WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY. SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED FOR MOUNTAIN PASSES. THE FORECAST THEN TRENDS DRIER
AGAIN ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AND ABOVE
NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: THE INLAND NORTHWEST WILL BE BETWEEN
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES OVERNIGHT. ONE PASSING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WILL EXIT LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN
AND A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS INCLUDING OVER LOOKOUT PASS.
ADDED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
CLEARING TONIGHT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP. WINDS
WILL START OUT A LITTLE BREEZY INTO THE EVENING, BUT THEN WEAKEN
OVER WITH AS THE FRONT PUSHES AWAY. IT MAY TAKE INTO THE LATE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE FOG GETS ESTABLISHED
BECAUSE OF THE WINDS. A DEEPER SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHEAST WASHINGTON INTO THE IDAHO PANHANDLE, AND THIS MAY
FAVOR MORE OF A LOW STRATUS DECK FOR THE VALLEYS ESPECIALLY A LITTLE
BIT OF WIND TO START OUT THE EVENING; HOWEVER, ACROSS THE COLUMBIA
BASIN INTO THE AND ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WASHINGTON WHERE CLOUD COVER
WILL BE MORE SPARSE TO BEGIN THE EVENING, ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE FOG
DEVELOP. FOG MAY BECOME DENSE WITH RAPID CHANGES TO VISIBILITY
THAT WOULD INCLUDE THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE MONDAY
COMMUTE PERIOD, AND PEOPLE SHOULD PLAN EXTRA TIME TO REACH THEIR
DESTINATION FOR TOMORROW MORNING.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
DISTURBANCE WON'T BE AS UNSTABLE AT MID LEVELS WITH A BROADER AREA
OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION DUE TO MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT. FORCING
ISN'T PARTICULAR STRONG, AND THE LACK OF AN INSTABILITY COMPONENT,
IS EXPECTED TO YIELD EVEN LIGHTER INTENSITY PRECIPITATION THAN
TODAY. RAIN IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN LOOKS TO BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT IT
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MEASURING. BETTER CHANCES WITH A
PROBABILITY OF 50-70% CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER FOR TOMORROW AT BETWEEN 3,000
TO 4,000 FEET WITH THE MOUNTAINS STILL ONLY RECEIVING VERY
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONLY AN INCH OR TWO AT BEST.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: MODEL ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WHERE UNCERTAINTY LIES IS WITH HOW
QUICKLY MOISTURE RIDES UP THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN THE FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD. THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS BEGINS SPREADING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN THE LONGER RANGE, IT DOES APPEAR
THAT WE MAY FINALLY SEE A SHIFT IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
FAVORING TROUGHING OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST FOR THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN. A RIDGE OF THIS MAGNITUDE NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT IN A
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL START
OUT MOIST AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE TOP. THE LIKELY
SCENARIO IS WE WILL SEE A LOT OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS UNDER THE
RIDGE. THE STRATUS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE SURFACE
AT NIGHT AND THIS TENDS TO RESULT IN HIGH ENOUGH MIXING HEIGHTS
THAT AIR STAGNATION DOESN'T LOOK TO BE A BIG CONCERN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AND ABOVE NORMAL. /SVH
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: A FRONTAL BAND WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST TODAY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT
IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH KMWH TO KOMK LATE THIS MORNING. THE
SHORT TERM EFFECTS OF THIS FRONT WILL BE TO MIX OUT THE FOG
THAT SETTLE IN ACROSS THE BASIN AND VALLEYS. IT WILL TAKE A
COUPLE MORE HOURS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR KDEW TO KSZT TO
SEE THE FOG MIX OUT. THE LIGHT RAIN WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY DOWN
TO BETWEEN 1-4 KFT AGL. WITH THE RAIN INTO THIS EVENING. SOME
WESTERLY WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE SUSTAINED TO BETWEEN
8-12 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS FOR KGEG TO KCOE AND AT KPUW BY
MID AFTERNOON. A REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND STRATUS WITH IFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOR THE EASTERN COLUMBIA BASIN, NORTHEAST WASHINGTON,
AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE (KGEG/KSFF/K63S/KDEW/KCOE/KSZT/KPUW). A
DECREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN
LOW CLOUDS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS INTO KMWH AND
KEAT THROUGH THE MORNING ON MONDAY AS WELL.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AT KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW
WITH INCREASING RAIN AFTER 21Z TODAY. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THAT STRATUS WILL MIX OUT AT KEAT AND KMWH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A 20-40% CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS HOLDING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. /SVH
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 32 45 33 46 33 50 / 30 40 20 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 35 45 35 47 33 49 / 60 40 30 0 0 0
PULLMAN 34 47 37 51 36 51 / 30 20 20 0 0 0
LEWISTON 36 52 39 55 38 54 / 10 10 10 0 0 0
COLVILLE 32 40 32 45 33 48 / 30 70 20 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 35 40 34 44 35 46 / 80 60 40 0 0 0
KELLOGG 37 44 38 49 36 52 / 80 40 40 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 30 44 32 49 33 50 / 0 30 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 35 42 35 44 36 48 / 0 40 10 0 0 0
OMAK 34 41 34 43 36 45 / 10 40 10 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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