635
FXUS66 KOTX 020855
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1255 AM PST MON FEB 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING WARMER.
- DRY AND MILD TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SYNOPSIS
A MILDER PATTERN WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED FOR MOUNTAIN PASSES. THE FORECAST THEN TRENDS DRIER
AGAIN ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AND ABOVE
NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
TODAY AND TONIGHT: A WEAK SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVES BY THE AREA.
THIS MORNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL
HOLD STRATUS AND FOG IN PLACE. THE DEPTH OF THE FOG HAS BEEN
VACILLATING, WITH IT LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES BEFORE IT DISSIPATES
SOME. AS WE CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING I EXPECT TO FOG WILL
BE MORE PERSISTENT, WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OVER THE DEEPER
COLUMBIA BASIN INTO THE WEST PLAINS. THE INCOMING WAVE WILL
BRING MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW MIX AND LOWLAND RAIN IN FROM THE WEST
LATER THIS MORNING, WITH THE THREAT EXPANDING THROUGHOUT THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WANING THROUGH EVENING. THE WAVE IS
RELATIVELY WEAK AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AWAY FROM THE
CASCADES LOOKS LIGHT. A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
STEVENS PASS, MAYBE ONE INCH NEAR SHERMAN AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE. SOME MORE MODERATE RAIN AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE CASCADES CREST OTHERWISE, WHILE LOWLANDS GENERALLY SEE A
TRACE TO ABOUT 0.05 INCHES. HEADING INTO TONIGHT, STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE, WITH MORE FOG EXPANDING OUT AGAIN,
TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL LARGELY MEAN DRY
WEATHER, BUT WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH LOW CLOUDS AND MAYBE
SOME PATCHY FOG. AFTER TUESDAY THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST CWA
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SUN DURING THE DAY. BUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WILL BE STRUGGLING EACH DAY. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ITS EROSION AND
IT MAY ERODED TO A BIGGER EXTEND LATER IN THE WEEK.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: THE FRONTAL WAVE MOVES IN, THIS WILL
EXPAND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAINS SNOW INTO THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH SOME COOLER AIR LOWERING SNOW LEVELS
TOWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT MONDAY AND POTENTIALLY MIXING SOME
DOWN THE LOWLANDS AT NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S TODAY AND
MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY, WITH SOME 50S COMING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CWA. THEREAFTER CONFIDENCE WANES SOME. IF STRATUS
HOLDS ON TEMPERATURES WOULD BE COLDER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
YESTERDAY (SUNDAY) THE 25TH PERCENTILE TEMPERATURE VERIFIED IN
MANY SPOTS. THAT IS THE COLDER END OF SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER HEADING
INTO THE WEEK EVEN THE 25TH PERCENTILE VALUES WARM, BUT THEN
NBM MAY NOT BE HANDLING THE STRATUS WELL. EITHER WAY THE
FORECAST HAS MORE 40S AND LOWER 50S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND
30S WILL BE COMMON, WITH SOME LOW 50S NEAR THE L-C VALLEY.
/SOLVEIG
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: A REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND STRATUS WITH IFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOR THE EASTERN COLUMBIA BASIN, NORTHEAST WASHINGTON,
AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE (KGEG/KSFF/K63S/KDEW/KCOE/KSZT). A
DECREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN
LOW CLOUDS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS INTO KMWH AND
KEAT THROUGH THE MORNING ON MONDAY AS WELL. A CHANCE OF RAIN
DEVELOPS LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON, FROM WEST TO EAST.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO HELP AT LEAST MIX UP THE STRATUS SOME TO
MVFR CONDITIONS AT KGEG/KSFF/KCOE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR FOG AND STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT DEGRADING
CONDITIONS TO IFR FOR KEG/KSFF/K63S/KDEW/KCOE/KSZT. LOW CONFIDENCE
FOR CONDITIONS FALLING TO IFR AT KMWH AND KEAT. LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION, BUT EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIGHT.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 42 33 47 33 49 32 / 40 20 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 43 36 48 34 50 33 / 50 30 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 44 37 53 36 52 35 / 40 20 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 48 39 56 38 55 36 / 30 10 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 39 32 43 33 47 32 / 60 20 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 39 34 43 34 46 33 / 50 40 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 42 39 47 37 52 37 / 40 40 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 43 33 50 33 50 32 / 30 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 41 35 44 36 47 35 / 60 10 0 0 0 0
OMAK 40 34 44 36 44 34 / 40 10 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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