134
FXUS66 KOTX 051536
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
736 AM PST THU FEB 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND MILD THROUGH FRIDAY.
- MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWLAND RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH WINTER
TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES.
SYNOPSIS
THE INLAND NORTHWEST WILL BE UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AND
ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
BREEZY WINDS THIS WEEKEND. ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY: AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE REGION
TODAY WILL PROVIDE VERY MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE ONE CAVEAT IS
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THAT LINGERS ACROSS CENTRAL WASHINGTON DOWN
THROUGH THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN EXTENDING NORTH AND EAST INTO
RITZVILLE AND THE WESTERN PALOUSE. STRATUS IS LIKELY TO HOLD HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S WHERE IS PERSISTS ALL DAY. OVER NORTHEAST
WASHINGTON AND THE NORTH ID PANHANDLE, VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP FOG FORMATION SHALLOW, ALLOWING FOG TO
BURN OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON SUN ALLOWING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. ON FRIDAY THE
RIDGE MOVES EAST, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. IN
ADDITION LOWER LEVEL FLOW SWITCHES FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
THIS IS LIKELY TO ADVECT ALL OF THE STRATUS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
INTO THE SPOKANE/COEUR D'ALENE AREA AND NORTHERN VALLEYS RESULTING
IN COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: CHANGES ARRIVE AS A MOIST PRECIPITABLE
WATER PLUME TAKES AIM AT THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
SOME OF THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH AS MUCH AS 0.75-1.25" OF RAIN OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF WASHINGTON INTO THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. YET
THESE CURRENTLY FALL IN THE UPPER AMOUNTS OF THE NBM LEADING TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS PANNING OUT, YET WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 175-250 PERCENT OF NORMAL
OVER A 24-36 HOUR PERIOD IT'S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR A WET, RAINY,
PERIOD TO DEVELOP FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE HIGH, RANGING FROM 5000 TO 6500 FEET WITH SNOW CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SNOW LEVELS DROP AS THE REGION BECOMES
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS THE WET WEEKEND
FRONT SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. YET THE UPPER JET WITH THE TROUGH
DIGS SOUTH WITH THE BETTER LIFT FROM PASSING DISTURBANCES GOING
SOUTH INTO OREGON AND CALIFORNIA. YET SOME MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BRING AT LEAST SOME SNOW BACK TO THE MOUNTAINS.
FOR MONDAY THE NBM HAS THE CHANCE FOR 2 INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE AT
70% FOR STEVENS PASS AND 45% FOR LOOKOUT PASS. ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY POP'S DECREASE AND THE REGION LOOKS TO BE IN A LULL
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. JW
AVIATION
12Z TAFS:
UPDATE (1530Z): A STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE RESULT IN THICK FOG
THROUGH THE MORNING FOR KLWS/KGEG/KSFF/KCOE AND VISIBILITY DOWN
TO 1/4 MILE AND LESS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO SEE SOME ERASION BY
THE AFTERNOON, BUT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED TOO DRY THIS
MORNING MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO PREDICT HOW EFFECTIVE AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE WILL BE AT BURNING OFF THE FOG TODAY.
MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND THROUGH THE DAY AT
KEAT/KMWH/KEPH AND UNLIKELY TO SEE ANY EROSION. THE GENERAL
IDEA INTO FRIDAY IS FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO EXPAND THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LOW IFR
CONDITIONS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CONFIDENCE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF LOW CLOUDS,
ESPECIALLY ON WHEN FOG WILL IMPROVE TODAY. /SVH
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 50 32 43 33 48 41 / 0 0 0 0 20 50
COEUR D'ALENE 52 34 45 33 49 41 / 0 0 0 0 20 60
PULLMAN 55 37 44 36 51 42 / 0 0 0 0 10 40
LEWISTON 57 38 53 39 56 44 / 0 0 0 0 10 30
COLVILLE 48 32 43 32 44 37 / 0 0 0 0 30 60
SANDPOINT 49 34 45 34 45 40 / 0 0 0 0 30 70
KELLOGG 57 39 52 37 51 42 / 0 0 0 0 20 60
MOSES LAKE 52 33 46 33 46 40 / 0 0 0 0 20 30
WENATCHEE 48 36 47 36 46 39 / 0 0 0 0 30 50
OMAK 47 35 46 35 44 38 / 0 0 0 0 20 30
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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