652
FXUS66 KOTX 051822
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1022 AM PST THU FEB 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND MILD THROUGH FRIDAY.
- MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWLAND RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH WINTER
TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES.
SYNOPSIS
THE INLAND NORTHWEST WILL BE UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AND
ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
BREEZY WINDS THIS WEEKEND. ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
MORNING UPDATE: A STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE TODAY WILL LIMIT
THE MIXING POTENTIAL WITH THE DRIER FREE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT WITH
THE MOIST BOUNDARY NEAR THE SURFACE. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
STUBBORN TO DISSIPATE TODAY AS A RESULT. I DO EXPECT THAT THE
LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE ALONG THE EDGES AND THE HIGHER FEBRUARY
SUN ANGLE WITH SLIGHTLY LONGER DAYS NOW WILL HELP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TODAY. MUCH OF THE VALLEYS ACROSS TUCKED IN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FROM THE METHOW TO CHEWELAH- COLVILLE TO
DEER PARK, PRIEST RIVER AND SANDPOINT WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS THIS MORNING. THE
SAME WILL BE THE CASE ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR AROUND
COULEE CITY THROUGH WILBUR, DAVENPORT AND THROUGH SPOKANE. FOG
WILL ALSO SLOSH AROUND IN THE LEWISTON-CLARKSTON VALLEY. ALL OF
THESE AREAS ARE WITHIN A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH NOON.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT A
REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG IS A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. /SVH
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: A STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW STRATUS COVER. THE UPPER
PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS WILL SEE LOW IFR CONDITIONS WITH DENSE FOG THROUGH THE
REST OF THE THIS MORNING. WENATCHEE TO MOSES LAKE TO LEWISTON
AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS UNDER A LOW
STRATUS DECK. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE GRADUALLY AND THE
EXPECTATION IS WHERE FOG HAS FORMED WILL EITHER LIFT TO A LOW
STRATUS DECK WITH CEILINGS BELOW 1 KFT AGL OR DISSIPATE
COMPLETELY. THE SPOKANE/COEUR D'ALENE CORRIDOR (KGEG/KSFF/KCOE)
ARE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS, AND THE PROGNOSES
IS FOR THESE TAF SITES TO BREAK OUT BETWEEN 21-23Z THIS
AFTERNOON. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL EXPAND AND FILL MORE SO
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL ALL AIRPORTS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER
OR WITHIN THE LOW CLOUDS BY FRIDAY MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MODEL GUIDANCE
IS NOT INITIALIZING WELL AT ALL WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
AND IS TOO DRY. THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE AS
A RESULT AND PRIMARILY BASING THE FORECAST OFF OF PAST
EXPERIENCES WITH RIDGE PATTERNS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY OF SIMILAR
STRENGTH. /SVH
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 50 32 43 33 48 41 / 0 0 0 0 20 50
COEUR D'ALENE 52 34 45 33 49 41 / 0 0 0 0 20 60
PULLMAN 55 37 44 36 51 42 / 0 0 0 0 10 40
LEWISTON 57 38 53 39 56 44 / 0 0 0 0 10 30
COLVILLE 48 32 43 32 44 37 / 0 0 0 0 30 60
SANDPOINT 49 34 45 34 45 40 / 0 0 0 0 30 70
KELLOGG 57 39 52 37 51 42 / 0 0 0 0 20 60
MOSES LAKE 52 33 46 33 46 40 / 0 0 0 0 20 30
WENATCHEE 48 36 47 36 46 39 / 0 0 0 0 30 50
OMAK 47 35 46 35 44 38 / 0 0 0 0 20 30
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR LOWER GARFIELD AND
ASOTIN COUNTIES-NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-SPOKANE AREA-UPPER
COLUMBIA BASIN-WATERVILLE PLATEAU-WESTERN OKANOGAN COUNTY.
ID...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR COEUR D'ALENE AREA-
LEWISTON AREA-NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
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