120
FXUS66 KOTX 060020
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
420 PM PST THU FEB 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND MILD WITH AREAS OF FOG THROUGH FRIDAY.
- MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWLAND RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH WINTER
TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES.
SYNOPSIS
THE INLAND NORTHWEST WILL BE UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AND
ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
BREEZY WINDS THIS WEEKEND. ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST FOR ANOTHER 36-48 HOURS. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A POTENT INVERSION
WITH LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
EROSION OF THE FOG AND STRATUS TODAY, BUT IT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT
AND SLOW TO DISSIPATE. MODE GUIDANCE IS DOING A POOR JOB
ACCURATELY PORTRAYING HOW MOIST THE BOUNDARY IS, AND THE
FORECAST IS RELYING HEAVILY ON PATTERN RECOGNITION. THE
PROGNOSIS IS FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. AREAS THAT START OUT WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL
MORE LIKELY HAVE FOG FORM WITH THE SURFACE EXPECTED TO SEE
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE MOSES LAKE
AREA AND I-90 CORRIDOR THROUGH RITZVILLE UP TO THE SPOKANE/CD'A
AREAS. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN WILL ALSO BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FOG FORMING TONIGHT, WHICH WILL INCLUDE THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. I ALSO EXPECT FOG TO MOVE INTO THE
PULLMAN/MOSCOW AREA AND INTO THE LEWISTON-CLARKSTON VALLEY WITH
THE EASTERN WINDS WEAKENING AND RESULTING IN MORE MOIST AIR TO
ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. MOST IF NOT ALL AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN AND MOISTURE FROM
THE PACIFIC MOVES IN. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WITH A WEAK ATMOSPHERIC RIVER AHEAD OF IT
THAT WILL PENETRATE INLAND ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MODIFY WITH MAINLY VALLEY RAIN AND SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE METHOW VALLEY WHERE
COLD AIR TRAPPED MAY RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE UP TO
AROUND 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES AT THE CASCADE CREST AND OVER THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT THE STEVENS PASS WILL BE
BETWEEN 3-5 INCHES AND AT LOOKOUT PASS UP TO BETWEEN 1-3
INCHES. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT ABOVE PASS LEVELS UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT AT WHICH TIME THESE WET SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO RISES ON THE COEUR
D'ALENE RIVER. BASE FLOWS IN THE RIVER WILL START OUT LOW ENOUGH
THAT ANY RISES IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN IMPACTS THOUGH.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DIGS IN OVER THE
REGION FOR NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL DECREASE OUR TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. WE
WILL SEE A DRYING OUT PERIOD FOR THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK
FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AND THEN AN INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR ACTIVE WEATHER WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK. /SVH
AVIATION
00Z TAFS: REGION IS SEEING WIDESPREAD CLEARING AS THE INVERSION
HAS BROKEN AND ALLOWED MIXING TO THE SURFACE. VFR CONDITONS
EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES EXCLUDING MWH WHICH STILL REMAINS
UNDER IFR STRATUS DECK OVER SOUTHERN WASHINGTON. ENSEMBLES ARE
SHOWING ANOTHER STRONG INVERSION SETTING UP TONIGHT. FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL AGAIN SPREAD ACROSS THE BASIN AND BRING IFR
CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL START LATE
FRIDAY MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MODEL GUIDANCE
IS NOT INITIALIZING WELL AT ALL WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
AND IS TOO DRY. THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE AS
A RESULT AND PRIMARILY BASING THE FORECAST OFF OF PAST
EXPERIENCES WITH RIDGE PATTERNS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY OF SIMILAR
STRENGTH. /JDC
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 32 41 33 45 42 47 / 0 0 0 10 60 80
COEUR D'ALENE 33 41 33 46 41 47 / 0 0 0 10 60 80
PULLMAN 36 44 36 53 42 48 / 0 0 0 10 40 70
LEWISTON 38 48 38 56 45 55 / 0 0 0 0 20 50
COLVILLE 32 40 32 41 37 44 / 0 0 0 20 60 80
SANDPOINT 34 40 33 41 39 43 / 0 0 0 20 70 90
KELLOGG 39 50 36 49 43 46 / 0 0 0 10 50 80
MOSES LAKE 31 43 33 44 39 49 / 0 0 0 10 40 70
WENATCHEE 36 43 35 42 39 48 / 0 0 0 20 50 70
OMAK 35 43 35 40 38 45 / 0 0 0 10 40 60
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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