455
FXUS66 KOTX 060705
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1105 PM PST THU FEB 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND MILD WITH AREAS OF FOG THROUGH FRIDAY.
- MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWLAND RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH WINTER
TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES.
UPDATE
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE UPPER COLUMBIA
BASIN, SPOKANE AREA, PALOUSE, AND THE ALPOWA SUMMIT AREA. NIGHT
TIME MICROPHYSICS CHANNEL SHOWS FOG EXPANDING INTO THESE AREAS
WITH VISIBILITY DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS. WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STAYING VERY MOIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING THE
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED THROUGH NOON FRIDAY. JW
SYNOPSIS
THE INLAND NORTHWEST WILL BE UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AND
ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
BREEZY WINDS THIS WEEKEND. ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST FOR ANOTHER 36-48 HOURS. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A POTENT INVERSION
WITH LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
EROSION OF THE FOG AND STRATUS TODAY, BUT IT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT
AND SLOW TO DISSIPATE. MODE GUIDANCE IS DOING A POOR JOB
ACCURATELY PORTRAYING HOW MOIST THE BOUNDARY IS, AND THE
FORECAST IS RELYING HEAVILY ON PATTERN RECOGNITION. THE
PROGNOSIS IS FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. AREAS THAT START OUT WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL
MORE LIKELY HAVE FOG FORM WITH THE SURFACE EXPECTED TO SEE
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE MOSES LAKE
AREA AND I-90 CORRIDOR THROUGH RITZVILLE UP TO THE SPOKANE/CD'A
AREAS. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN WILL ALSO BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FOG FORMING TONIGHT, WHICH WILL INCLUDE THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. I ALSO EXPECT FOG TO MOVE INTO THE
PULLMAN/MOSCOW AREA AND INTO THE LEWISTON-CLARKSTON VALLEY WITH
THE EASTERN WINDS WEAKENING AND RESULTING IN MORE MOIST AIR TO
ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. MOST IF NOT ALL AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN AND MOISTURE FROM
THE PACIFIC MOVES IN. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WITH A WEAK ATMOSPHERIC RIVER AHEAD OF IT
THAT WILL PENETRATE INLAND ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MODIFY WITH MAINLY VALLEY RAIN AND SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE METHOW VALLEY WHERE
COLD AIR TRAPPED MAY RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE UP TO
AROUND 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES AT THE CASCADE CREST AND OVER THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT THE STEVENS PASS WILL BE
BETWEEN 3-5 INCHES AND AT LOOKOUT PASS UP TO BETWEEN 1-3
INCHES. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT ABOVE PASS LEVELS UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT AT WHICH TIME THESE WET SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO RISES ON THE COEUR
D'ALENE RIVER. BASE FLOWS IN THE RIVER WILL START OUT LOW ENOUGH
THAT ANY RISES IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN IMPACTS THOUGH.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DIGS IN OVER THE
REGION FOR NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL DECREASE OUR TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. WE
WILL SEE A DRYING OUT PERIOD FOR THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK
FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AND THEN AN INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR ACTIVE WEATHER WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK. /SVH
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: IFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH AREAS OF VLIFR CONDITIONS AS DENSE FOG DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN, PALOUSE, AND SPOKANE AREA. THE STRATUS AND
FOG WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH ALL AREAS
BELOW 3500 FEET MSL EXPECTED TO BE SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS ON
FRIDAY, EXCEPT FOR KLWS WHICH HAS A CHANCE FOR SOME CLEARING
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH KPUW HANGING ON TO A LIGHT UPSLOPE
WEST BOUNDARY LAYER WIND PER HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS, CONFIDENCE
IN ANY IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY IS LOW, SO THE TAF WAS KEPT AT
1/4SM THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF EXPANDING FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT, AND ENCOMPASSING ALL OF
THE VALLEYS ON FRIDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT STRATUS LINGERS ALL
DAY, EXCEPT KLWS WHERE THERE IS LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF
SOME BREAKS IN THE STRATUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VLIFR CONDITIONS
FOR KGEG THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THAT KPUW STAYS AT 1/4SM THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. JW
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 31 41 33 45 41 47 / 0 0 0 20 70 70
COEUR D'ALENE 32 41 33 46 41 46 / 0 0 0 20 80 70
PULLMAN 35 44 35 53 43 47 / 0 0 0 10 70 80
LEWISTON 38 48 37 56 45 52 / 0 0 0 0 50 70
COLVILLE 32 40 31 41 37 45 / 0 0 0 40 70 60
SANDPOINT 32 40 33 41 39 44 / 0 0 0 30 90 80
KELLOGG 39 50 36 49 43 45 / 0 0 0 10 80 90
MOSES LAKE 33 43 34 44 38 47 / 0 0 0 30 40 60
WENATCHEE 37 43 36 42 38 46 / 0 0 0 40 50 60
OMAK 36 43 35 40 37 45 / 0 0 0 30 30 40
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST FRIDAY FOR LOWER GARFIELD
AND ASOTIN COUNTIES-SPOKANE AREA-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-
WASHINGTON PALOUSE.
ID...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST FRIDAY FOR IDAHO PALOUSE.
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