139
FXUS66 KOTX 061712
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
912 AM PST FRI FEB 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WITH AREAS OF FOG THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWLAND RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAIN
PASSES.
SYNOPSIS
THE INLAND NORTHWEST WILL BE UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY AND TONIGHT: THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST BEGINS TO PUSH EAST. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WITH STILL PLENTY OF WARM AIR OVER THE
REGION. HOWEVER MOST OF THIS WILL STAY UP IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY
AS FOG AND STRATUS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. ALL ELEVATIONS BELOW 3500 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO BE
STUCK UNDER A LOW CLOUD DECK AS THE STRATUS LAYER DEEPENS OVER
THE REGION AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TURNS LIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST (UPSLOPE DIRECTION FOR NE WASHINGTON INTO THE ID
PANHANDLE). THE FEW EXCEPTIONS ARE THE METHOW VALLEY, AND
LOCALLY THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS AND KAMIAH AREA. THERE
HAVE BEEN SEVERAL REPORTS OF VISIBILITY NEAR A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS THIS MORNING AROUND THE UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN, SPOKANE AREA,
PALOUSE, AND ALPOWA SUMMIT AREA WHERE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS
IN PLACE THROUGH NOON. THERE HAVE BEEN LOCAL REPORTS OF DENSE
FOG IN OTHER AREAS AS WELL, AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE LOW STRATUS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES RISES
TODAY, WITH MOST VALLEYS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S. THE STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS WELL.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: CHANGES ARRIVE AS A MOIST PRECIPITABLE
WATER PLUME TAKES AIM AT THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW,
WITH SNOW LEVELS INITIALLY STARTING OFF HIGH; RANGING FROM 4500
TO 6000 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS THEN FALL TO
AROUND 4000 FEET IN THE CASCADES ON SUNDAY, AND THEN AS LOW AS
2500-3000 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE LATEST
DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING
AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT, TRACKING FROM CENTRAL
OREGON INTO THE PALOUSE WITH A DEFORMATION BAND OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK AROUND THE PALOUSE/SPOKANE
AREA INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS. IF THIS PANS OUT
HIGHER SNOW TOTALS THAN FORECAST WOULD OCCUR WITH AS MUCH AS
5-10 INCHES IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS, AND POSSIBLY WET
SNOW MIXING IN DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS AS WELL. CURRENTLY THE
NBM SHOWS A 75% CHANCE OF 2" OR MORE OF SNOW AT LOOKOUT PASS,
WITH A 20% CHANCE OF 6" OR MORE. SIMILAR PROBABILITIES ARE SHOWN
FOR STEVENS PASS. BREEZY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS
PASSING SYSTEM ON THE PALOUSE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR DRIER CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. ON THURSDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES BUT THE NBM IS ONLY CARRYING A 20-30% CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF MAINLY VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW. JW
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: LIGHT WINDS AND IFR-LIFR FOG AND STRATUS WILL LARGELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
OVERLY OPTIMISTIC OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS. THERE MAY BE SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENTS IN VISIBILITY INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
FRIDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CONFIDENCE
FOR IMPROVEMENTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 38 33 45 41 47 34 / 0 0 20 70 70 70
COEUR D'ALENE 41 33 46 41 46 35 / 0 0 20 80 70 80
PULLMAN 39 35 53 43 47 36 / 0 0 10 70 80 80
LEWISTON 48 37 56 45 52 39 / 0 0 0 50 70 80
COLVILLE 40 31 41 37 45 32 / 0 0 40 70 60 60
SANDPOINT 40 33 41 39 44 35 / 0 0 30 90 80 80
KELLOGG 50 36 49 43 45 36 / 0 0 10 80 90 90
MOSES LAKE 43 34 44 38 47 33 / 0 0 30 40 60 40
WENATCHEE 42 36 42 38 46 34 / 0 0 40 50 60 40
OMAK 41 35 40 37 45 34 / 0 0 30 30 40 40
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR LOWER GARFIELD AND
ASOTIN COUNTIES-SPOKANE AREA-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-
WASHINGTON PALOUSE.
ID...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR IDAHO PALOUSE.
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