119
FXUS66 KOTX 062120
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
120 PM PST FRI FEB 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WITH AREAS OF FOG THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- RAIN ARRIVING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND TURNING TO SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINTER TRAVEL
CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES.
SYNOPSIS
THE INLAND NORTHWEST WILL TRANSITION FROM A DRY PATTERN WITH FOG
AND STRATUS TO A WETTER, MORE ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. AN INCOMING SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH A BLANKET OF FOG AND STRATUS LINGERING UNDER A
STRONG INVERSION.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: CHANGES ARRIVE AS THE STORM TRACK
SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHWEST, DIRECTING A PLUME OF MOIST TROPICAL
AIR INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH AN EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW
LEVELS INITIALLY START OFF ABOVE PASS LEVELS; RANGING FROM 5000
TO 6000 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS THEN FALL TO
AROUND 3500 FEET IN THE CASCADES SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND DROP AS
LOW AS 2500 TO 3000 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING OVER NORTHERN OREGON AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT, PLACING A
DEFORMATION BAND OF STEADY PRECIPITATION AROUND THE
PALOUSE/SPOKANE AREA INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS. IF
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DEFORMATION BAND PANS OUT, HIGHER SNOW
TOTALS THAN FORECAST WOULD OCCUR WITH AS MUCH AS 10 INCHES IN
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS INCLUDING OVER LOOKOUT PASS,
AND POSSIBLY WET SNOW MIXING IN DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS AS
WELL. CURRENTLY THE NBM SHOWS A 75% CHANCE OF 2" OR MORE OF SNOW
AT LOOKOUT PASS, WITH A 25% CHANCE OF 6" OR MORE. SIMILAR
PROBABILITIES ARE SHOWN FOR STEVENS PASS. THESE PROBABILITIES
HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT SINCE YESTERDAY'S MODEL RUNS. IN
ADDITION TO MOUNTAIN SNOW, A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
PARTICULARLY OVER THE PALOUSE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MID-WEEK
AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN THURSDAY, BUT NBM PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW (20 TO 30%) WITH THIS SYSTEM. /FEWKES
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: LIGHT WINDS AND IFR-LIFR FOG AND STRATUS WILL LARGELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
OVERLY OPTIMISTIC OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS. THERE MAY BE SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENTS IN VISIBILITY INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
FRIDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CONFIDENCE
FOR IMPROVEMENTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 33 43 39 45 35 43 / 0 40 80 60 80 40
COEUR D'ALENE 32 45 40 46 36 42 / 0 40 90 70 80 60
PULLMAN 33 50 43 46 36 42 / 0 20 70 80 90 60
LEWISTON 37 55 45 53 41 50 / 0 10 50 80 90 40
COLVILLE 32 40 35 44 33 43 / 0 60 70 40 60 30
SANDPOINT 32 42 38 43 33 39 / 0 50 90 60 80 70
KELLOGG 34 48 43 44 36 39 / 0 20 90 80 90 90
MOSES LAKE 35 42 38 46 34 49 / 0 50 40 60 50 10
WENATCHEE 36 41 38 44 34 47 / 0 60 40 50 50 10
OMAK 34 41 35 42 32 42 / 0 50 30 30 40 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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