053
FXUS66 KOTX 070935
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
135 AM PST SAT FEB 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WITH AREAS OF FOG THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- RAIN ARRIVING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND TURNING TO SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINTER TRAVEL
CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES.
SYNOPSIS
THE INLAND NORTHWEST WILL TRANSITION FROM A DRY PATTERN WITH FOG
AND STRATUS TO A WETTER, MORE ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. AN INCOMING SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY: CHANGES WILL ARRIVE TODAY AS A MOIST
PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUME TAKES AIM AT THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW STARTING IN THE
CASCADES THIS MORNING, BEFORE SHIFTING INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON AND
NORTH IDAHO DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL
RANGE FROM 4500 TO 6000 FEET WITH SNOW CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
PEAKS. SNOW LEVELS THEN FALL TO AROUND 3500 FEET IN THE CASCADES
ON SUNDAY BUT WITH SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR AS THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER FETCH SHIFTS INTO SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AND THE ID PANHANDLE.
THIS IS SHORT LIVED AS IT LIFTS BACK NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY LIFTS THE BAND NORTHWARD. IN
ADDITION A SURFACE LOW OVER OREGON WILL DRAW SOME OF THIS COOLER
AIR INTO EASTERN WA/N IDAHO BY MONDAY MORNING AS SNOW LEVELS DROP
TO 2500-3000 FEET. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME WET SNOW TO MIX DOWN INTO
SOME OF THE VALLEYS, BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UP IN THE MOUNTAINS. CURRENTLY THE NBM PROBABILITIES FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS REMAIN STEADY, SHOWING A 75% CHANCE OF 2" OR MORE OF SNOW
AT LOOKOUT PASS, WITH A 20% CHANCE OF 6" OR MORE. BREEZY WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS PASSING SYSTEM ON THE PALOUSE.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH SWINGING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA, WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM SLIDING
SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRIER WEATHER FOR THE
INLAND NORTHWEST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH IS PROGGED BY THE
ENSEMBLES TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA BY FRIDAY WITH
INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND
2000-3000 FEET. YET THE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS SHOW ABOUT A 75% CHANCE
THAT THE BULK OF THE TROUGH DYNAMICS SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
THUS, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS LIGHT SNOW FOR THE CASCADES AND
ID PANHANDLE (RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEYS), AND A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON. THE
OTHER SCENARIO (25% CHANCE) IS THE TROUGH DYNAMICS PASS FURTHER
NORTH OVER EASTERN WA/N IDAHO WITH A MORE CONSOLIDATED FRONTAL
PASSAGE. JW
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: WIDESPREAD STRATUS WITH MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING IN THE VALLEYS, EXCEPT AROUND
THE PALOUSE AND LC VALLEY WHERE INCREASED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM MAY
BEGIN TO BREAK UP THE STRATUS. MODELS SHOW THIS BREAKUP TO REACH
KCOE AS WELL BETWEEN 18Z-20Z. THEN AN INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL BRING RAIN TO THE CASCADES, NORTHEAST WASHINGTON, AND IDAHO
PANHANDLE BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE RAIN AND UPSLOPE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY MVFR CIGS OVER NE
WASHINGTON INTO THE ID PANHANDLE, WHILE CENTRAL WA IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN UNDER A PERSISTENT MVFR STRATUS DECK WITHOUT AS MUCH
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW TO COLD ADVECTION TO DISTURB THE
STRATUS LAYER.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
KPUW/KLWS AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR KCOE. THERE IS ALSO
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL LIFT AT KGEG/KSFF SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT WHETHER IT IMPROVES TO MVFR OR VFR CARRIES LOWER
CONFIDENCE. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH 06Z
SUNDAY WITH INCOMING SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR ALL
TAF SITES. JW
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 43 41 45 35 43 30 / 50 80 70 80 30 10
COEUR D'ALENE 45 41 44 35 42 30 / 40 90 80 80 50 10
PULLMAN 50 43 46 36 42 31 / 20 80 90 90 60 10
LEWISTON 55 45 50 40 50 33 / 10 70 90 90 40 10
COLVILLE 40 36 44 33 42 29 / 70 70 50 60 20 0
SANDPOINT 42 39 43 35 39 31 / 50 90 70 80 70 20
KELLOGG 48 42 44 36 38 32 / 20 90 90 90 90 30
MOSES LAKE 42 39 47 34 48 29 / 60 50 70 50 10 0
WENATCHEE 41 38 44 35 46 32 / 70 50 60 40 10 0
OMAK 41 37 44 33 45 32 / 50 30 30 30 10 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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