561
FXUS66 KOTX 080651
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1051 PM PST SAT FEB 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN ARRIVING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY, RESULTING IN WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS AT TIMES OVER
MOUNTAIN PASSES.
- DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SYNOPSIS
A WETTER, MORE ACTIVE PATTERN ARRIVES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH MONDAY. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
IN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY: A PLUME OF MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH RADAR SHOWING RAIN BEGINNING TO
SPREAD EAST OF THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN AT 5K TO 6K
FEET THROUGH TONIGHT, KEEPING PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN OVER
MOUNTAIN PASSES. HEADING INTO SUNDAY, SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO
AROUND 3K FEET, BRINGING A TRANSITION TO SNOW AT PASS LEVELS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL DROP FURTHER BY MONDAY, FALLING TO 2.5K FEET. FOR
LOOKOUT PASS, LATEST RUNS OF THE NBM GIVE LOOKOUT PASS AN 80% CHANCE
OF SEEING AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF SNOW BY MONDAY EVENING (UP FROM 75%
IN PREVIOUS RUNS) AND A 15% CHANCE OF 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW (DOWN
FROM 25% IN PREVIOUS RUNS). FOR STEVENS PASS, THERE IS A 20% CHANCE
OF 2 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW AND A 10% CHANCE OF 6 OR MORE INCHES. IN
ADDITION TO RAIN AND SNOW, THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING BREEZY WINDS
TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE COLUMBIA
BASIN, NORTH ID, AND INTO THE SPOKANE/CDA AREA WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO
30 MPH. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS TO UPPER 40S FOR THE
DEEPER COLUMBIA BASIN AND IN THE L-C VALLEY. CLOUDS AND MOISTURE
WILL KEEP DIURNAL RANGES SMALL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: THE INLAND NORTHWEST WILL SHIFT INTO A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN WITH SYSTEMS MOVING BY TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH. WHILE
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND CALIFORNIA ARE GETTING ACTIVE WEATHER WITH
THESE SYSTEMS, WE WILL STAY DRY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL HOLD STEADY IN
THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S, BUT THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WILL RESULT
IN LARGER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING
INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THURSDAY EVENING
BRINGING LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE
VALLEYS. ENSEMBLES HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE STRONGEST
DYNAMICS DIVING TO OUR SOUTH WITH ONLY 13% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
BRINGING THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS DIRECTLY OVER THE INLAND
NORTHWEST. IF THE STRONGER DYNAMICS WERE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION
WE'D BE LOOKING AT HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS, BUT RIGHT NOW THAT DOES
NOT LOOK LIKELY.
LOOKING AHEAD TO MID-FEBRUARY, THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER'S 8-14
DAY OUTLOOK PLACES THE CASCADES IN AN AREA OF SLIGHT RISK FOR HEAVY
SNOW FROM FEBRUARY 15TH THROUGH 21ST. PERHAPS NOT ALL HOPE IS LOST
FOR GETTING SOME SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS WINTER? WE'LL SEE IF
THIS SNOW SIGNAL PERSISTS OVER THE COMING DAYS. /FEWKES
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: THE RAIN HAS TAPERED OFF FOR EVERY TAF SITE BUT COE,
WITH CURRENT RADAR INDICATING THAT IT WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF
WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS HIGH,
WINDS UP TO 10KTS WILL KEEP CEILINGS MVFR THROUGH AROUND 10Z FOR
GEG, SFF, AND COE. AROUND THIS TIME, GUIDANCE HAS WINDS
RELAXING AND CEILINGS DROPPING TO LIFR/IFR BY 12Z FOR GEG AND
SFF. ANOTHER BAND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED AROUND 15Z, WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HREF GUIDANCE
SHOWS COE FILLING IN EARLIER WITH PRECIPITATION, AROUND 09Z. FOR
PUW/LWS, THIS RAIN WILL START AROUND 15-18Z, DROPPING CEILINGS
AS IT MOVES THROUGH. FOR MWH/EAT, GUIDANCE FAVORS THESE SITES
REMAINING AT IFR/LIFR THROUGH AROUND 17Z, WHEN THE RAIN MOVES
IN, THEN WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ON PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR GEG, SFF,
COE, AND PUW. AS SNOW LEVELS DROP, BY AROUND 03-06Z, NBM/HREF
INDICATE A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW. DIDN'T INCLUDE THESE IN TAFS THROUGH 06Z, BUT CHANCES OF
RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW INCREASE INTO THE START OF THE NEXT
FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD FOR GEG, SFF, COE, AND PUW, THROUGH AROUND 00-03Z. THIS
IS AROUND THE TIME WHEN MODELS SHOW SNOW LEVELS LOWERING,
FAVORING A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW EARLY NEXT FORECAST
PERIOD. ALTERNATE SCENARIO HERE WOULD BE RAIN TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW SOONER, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO TAF AMENDMENTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN RAIN FOR LWS/MWH/EAT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS FOR GEG, SFF, AND COE,
ESPECIALLY AS WINDS DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING. HREF/NBM
GUIDANCE SHOW A DEGRADATION IN CEILINGS AS WINDS DECREASE, BUT
IF WINDS DON'T DECREASE ENOUGH, CEILINGS WILL STAY NEAR MVFR.
/AS
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CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 37 44 33 42 30 44 / 90 60 70 20 10 0
COEUR D'ALENE 38 45 34 42 30 45 / 100 70 70 50 10 10
PULLMAN 39 45 35 42 30 44 / 80 90 90 60 10 0
LEWISTON 45 49 38 49 33 48 / 70 90 90 30 0 0
COLVILLE 37 43 31 42 29 43 / 90 30 30 10 10 10
SANDPOINT 37 42 34 39 32 42 / 100 60 60 60 20 20
KELLOGG 39 44 35 39 31 42 / 90 90 90 90 30 10
MOSES LAKE 38 45 31 48 29 47 / 70 60 40 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 38 44 33 46 30 43 / 70 50 30 10 0 10
OMAK 35 41 30 41 29 39 / 70 20 20 0 0 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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