556
FXUS66 KOTX 080911
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
111 AM PST SUN FEB 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY, RESULTING IN WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS AT TIMES OVER
MOUNTAIN PASSES.
- DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SYNOPSIS
A WETTER, MORE ACTIVE PATTERN ARRIVES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH MONDAY. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
IN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY: A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND A WELCOME RETURN OF
SNOW TO MOUNTAIN PASSES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE SNOW LEVELS WITH
THIS SYSTEM STARTED OUT HIGH, 4000-5000 FEET, THEY WILL LOWER TO
AROUND 2000-3000 FEET AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY.
CURRENT NBM PROBABILITIES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SHOW STEVENS PASS
WITH A 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF 2 INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE, AND LOOKOUT
PASS WITH A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF 5 INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE.
EXPECT WINTRY TRAVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THE SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY
BRING RAIN TO THE LOWLANDS, BUT WILL SHIFT TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS. WITH THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, THE LEWISTON/PULLMAN
AREAS WILL SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH, WITH THE SPOKANE/COEUR
D'ALENE AREAS SEEING GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND OUT
OF THE AREA AND A LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF US, WE'LL SEE A BREAK
IN PRECIPITATION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS A LOW OFF THE CANADIAN COAST DROPS SOUTHWARD
INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND MOSTLY LOWLAND RAIN, THOUGH WITH PWATS
STILL BARELY AT 100 PERCENT, TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT. DETERMINISTIC
LOWLAND RAIN VALUES HOVER AROUND 0.10 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW
TOTALS THROUGHOUT THE MOUNTAINS LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT TOO,
WITH BOTH LOOKOUT AND STEVENS PASSES HAVING A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE
OF 3 INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER, CLUSTERS ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEEPEN FURTHER
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION. THE CPC'S 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS SUPPORT THIS,
WITH CHANCES FAVORING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION. /AS
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: THE RAIN HAS TAPERED OFF FOR EVERY TAF SITE BUT COE,
WITH CURRENT RADAR INDICATING THAT IT WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF
WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS HIGH,
WINDS UP TO 10KTS WILL KEEP CEILINGS MVFR THROUGH AROUND 10Z FOR
GEG, SFF, AND COE. AROUND THIS TIME, GUIDANCE HAS WINDS
RELAXING AND CEILINGS DROPPING TO LIFR/IFR BY 12Z FOR GEG AND
SFF. ANOTHER BAND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED AROUND 15Z, WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HREF GUIDANCE
SHOWS COE FILLING IN EARLIER WITH PRECIPITATION, AROUND 09Z. FOR
PUW/LWS, THIS RAIN WILL START AROUND 15-18Z, DROPPING CEILINGS
AS IT MOVES THROUGH. FOR MWH/EAT, GUIDANCE FAVORS THESE SITES
REMAINING AT IFR/LIFR THROUGH AROUND 17Z, WHEN THE RAIN MOVES
IN, THEN WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ON PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR GEG, SFF,
COE, AND PUW. AS SNOW LEVELS DROP, BY AROUND 03-06Z, NBM/HREF
INDICATE A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW. DIDN'T INCLUDE THESE IN TAFS THROUGH 06Z, BUT CHANCES OF
RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW INCREASE INTO THE START OF THE NEXT
FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD FOR GEG, SFF, COE, AND PUW, THROUGH AROUND 00-03Z. THIS
IS AROUND THE TIME WHEN MODELS SHOW SNOW LEVELS LOWERING,
FAVORING A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW EARLY NEXT FORECAST
PERIOD. ALTERNATE SCENARIO HERE WOULD BE RAIN TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW SOONER, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO TAF AMENDMENTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN RAIN FOR LWS/MWH/EAT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS FOR GEG, SFF, AND COE,
ESPECIALLY AS WINDS DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING. HREF/NBM
GUIDANCE SHOW A DEGRADATION IN CEILINGS AS WINDS DECREASE, BUT
IF WINDS DON'T DECREASE ENOUGH, CEILINGS WILL STAY NEAR MVFR.
/AS
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CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 44 33 41 30 45 27 / 40 60 20 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 44 34 41 31 44 27 / 50 70 50 10 0 0
PULLMAN 44 35 41 30 44 28 / 90 90 60 10 0 0
LEWISTON 48 37 48 32 47 32 / 90 90 40 0 0 0
COLVILLE 42 29 40 29 42 26 / 10 10 10 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 43 32 38 32 42 27 / 40 40 50 30 10 0
KELLOGG 44 35 38 31 43 27 / 80 90 90 40 10 0
MOSES LAKE 44 30 47 29 47 27 / 40 30 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 43 33 46 31 41 30 / 20 20 10 0 0 0
OMAK 44 31 43 31 42 29 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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