796
FXUS66 KOTX 081253
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
453 AM PST SUN FEB 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY, RESULTING IN WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS AT TIMES OVER
MOUNTAIN PASSES.
- DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SYNOPSIS
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH
MONDAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES IN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY: A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND A WELCOME RETURN OF
SNOW TO MOUNTAIN PASSES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE SNOW LEVELS WITH
THIS SYSTEM STARTED OUT HIGH, 4000-5000 FEET, THEY WILL LOWER TO
AROUND 2000-3000 FEET AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY.
CURRENT NBM PROBABILITIES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SHOW STEVENS PASS
WITH A 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF 2 INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE, AND LOOKOUT
PASS WITH A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF 5 INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE.
EXPECT WINTRY TRAVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THE SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY
BRING RAIN TO THE LOWLANDS, BUT WILL SHIFT TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS. WITH THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, THE LEWISTON/PULLMAN
AREAS WILL SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH, WITH THE SPOKANE/COEUR
D'ALENE AREAS SEEING GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND OUT
OF THE AREA AND A LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF US, WE'LL SEE A BREAK
IN PRECIPITATION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS A LOW OFF THE CANADIAN COAST DROPS SOUTHWARD
INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND MOSTLY LOWLAND RAIN, THOUGH WITH PWATS
STILL BARELY AT 100 PERCENT, TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT. DETERMINISTIC
LOWLAND RAIN VALUES HOVER AROUND 0.10 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW
TOTALS THROUGHOUT THE MOUNTAINS LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT TOO,
WITH BOTH LOOKOUT AND STEVENS PASSES HAVING A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE
OF 3 INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER, CLUSTERS ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEEPEN FURTHER
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION. THE CPC'S 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS SUPPORT THIS,
WITH CHANCES FAVORING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION. /AS
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A STALLED FRONT AND
MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE CENTRAL ID PANHANDLE INTO SE WASHINGTON
AND NORTHERN OREGON AND WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. A MIX OF
MOSTLY IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE INLAND
NORTHWEST WITH MODELS SHOWING GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR OR
VFR LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MODELS DEPICT THE MOISTURE PLUME TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, INCREASING
SHOWER COVERAGE INTO THE SPOKANE METRO AREA. CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIPITATION MAKING IT INTO GEG/SFF INCREASES AROUND 21Z, WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE AFTER 00Z. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO
GRADUALLY DEGRADE THIS EVENING. THE TRAJECTORY OF THE MOISTURE
PLUME LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IF PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT INTO
KMWH/KEAT. THERMAL PROFILES FAVOR PRECIPITATION TYPE AT TAF
SITES WILL BE RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER, SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL WITH THE SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW AT
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW NEAR THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING RAIN FOR ALL TAF SITES. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN A TRANSITION TO SNOW NEAR THE END OF
PRECIPITATION FOR KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR
CEILINGS WITH PRECIPITATION AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN A TREND
TOWARD IFR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 44 33 41 30 45 27 / 40 60 20 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 44 34 41 31 44 27 / 50 70 50 10 0 0
PULLMAN 44 35 41 30 44 28 / 90 90 60 10 0 0
LEWISTON 48 37 48 32 47 32 / 90 90 40 0 0 0
COLVILLE 42 29 40 29 42 26 / 10 10 10 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 43 32 38 32 42 27 / 40 40 50 30 10 0
KELLOGG 44 35 38 31 43 27 / 80 90 90 40 10 0
MOSES LAKE 44 30 47 29 47 27 / 40 30 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 43 33 46 31 41 30 / 20 20 10 0 0 0
OMAK 44 31 43 31 42 29 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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