008
FXUS66 KOTX 081746
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
946 AM PST SUN FEB 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY, RESULTING IN WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS AT TIMES OVER
MOUNTAIN PASSES.
- DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SYNOPSIS
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH
MONDAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES IN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY: A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND A WELCOME RETURN
OF SNOW TO MOUNTAIN PASSES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE SNOW
LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM STARTED OUT HIGH, 4000-5000 FEET, THEY
WILL LOWER TO AROUND 2000-3000 FEET AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA LATER TODAY. CURRENT NBM PROBABILITIES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT SHOW STEVENS PASS WITH A 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF 2 INCHES
OF SNOW OR MORE, AND LOOKOUT PASS WITH A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE
OF 5 INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE. EXPECT WINTRY TRAVEL CONDITIONS
THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE SECOND ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BRING RAIN TO THE LOWLANDS, BUT
WILL SHIFT TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN, BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS. WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, THE LEWISTON/PULLMAN AREAS WILL SEE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH, WITH THE SPOKANE/COEUR D'ALENE AREAS SEEING
GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND
OUT OF THE AREA AND A LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF US, WE'LL
SEE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS A LOW OFF THE CANADIAN COAST DROPS
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND MOSTLY LOWLAND
RAIN, THOUGH WITH PWATS STILL BARELY AT 100 PERCENT, TOTALS WILL
BE LIGHT. DETERMINISTIC LOWLAND RAIN VALUES HOVER AROUND 0.10
INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW TOTALS THROUGHOUT THE MOUNTAINS LOOK
TO REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT TOO, WITH BOTH LOOKOUT AND STEVENS
PASSES HAVING A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF 3 INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE
THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER, CLUSTERS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEEPEN FURTHER INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION. THE
CPC'S 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS SUPPORT THIS, WITH CHANCES
FAVORING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. /AS
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAVER NEAR SOUTHERN WA AND THE
LOWER ID PANHANDLE, BUCKLING NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
BRING SOME -RA AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO GEG/SFF/COE/PUW/MWH
AND PERHAPS LWS, WHILE EAT SAYS LARGELY WEST OF IT ALL. COLDER
AIR COMING IN AFTER 03-05Z WILL ALLOW FOR SOME POTENTIAL -SN
OR -RASN/-SNRA AT GEG/SFF/COE/PUW, THOUGH THE RISK FOR OVERALL
PRECIPITATION WILL WANE AFTER 09-12Z IN MOST AREAS, EXCEPT NEAR
PUW/LWS WHERE IT MAY LINGER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SNOW
ACCUMULATION, IF ANY, IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED AT TAF SITES.
AFTER THE PRECIPITATION WANES, SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
AROUND THE UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN TO WEST PLAINS AND NORTH PALOUSE
AND OVER THE NE VALLEYS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING RAIN FOR ALL TAF
SITES. LOW CONFIDENCE IN A TRANSITION TO SNOW NEAR THE END OF
PRECIPITATION FOR KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH PRECIPITATION.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 44 33 41 30 45 27 / 40 60 20 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 44 34 41 31 44 27 / 50 70 50 10 0 0
PULLMAN 44 35 41 30 44 28 / 90 90 60 10 0 0
LEWISTON 48 37 48 32 47 32 / 90 90 40 0 0 0
COLVILLE 42 29 40 29 42 26 / 10 10 10 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 43 32 38 32 42 27 / 40 40 50 30 10 0
KELLOGG 44 35 38 31 43 27 / 80 90 90 40 10 0
MOSES LAKE 44 30 47 29 47 27 / 40 30 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 43 33 46 31 41 30 / 20 20 10 0 0 0
OMAK 44 31 43 31 42 29 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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