827
FXUS66 KOTX 090607
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1007 PM PST SUN FEB 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY, RESULTING IN WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS AT TIMES OVER
MOUNTAIN PASSES.
- DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SYNOPSIS
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH
MONDAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES IN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: A CHANCE PRECIPITATION COMES TO
THE AREA, STARTING OFF AND MAINLY MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWLAND RAIN
BEFORE COOLER AIR STARTS TO LOWER SNOW LEVELS LATER TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING, ALLOWING FOR SOME OF THAT SNOW OR AT LEAST RISK
FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX COMING DOWN THE LOWLANDS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS STALLED NEAR THE SOUTHERN CWA AND A WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST IS PROJECTED TO ALLOW THE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT NORTH LATER
THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. THUS FAR THE PRECIPITATION HAS
LARGELY BE HELD NEAR THE SOUTHERN CWA AND HAS NOT MADE A FAR
NORTH A PUSH AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE CHALLENGE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY, WITH HOW FAR NORTH
THIS WILL GO. OVERALL, HOWEVER, THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
EXPAND NORTHWARD WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL AROUND CASCADE CREST
AND SOUTHEAST WA INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW-END LIKELY POPS LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER COLUMBIA
BASIN/SPOKANE/C'DA AREA TOO. CHANCE WILL BE BEST LATE THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, DECREASING BEFORE SUNRISE.
THEN HEADING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON THE HIGHER POTENTIAL SHIFTS
THE MOUNTAIN ZONES AND DECREASES MONDAY NIGHT.
SOME MODERATE SNOW ARE IN THE FORECAST AROUND THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE ABOVE 3000 FEET, SO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH 10 AM MONDAY, WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE THAT LEVEL AND TRACE
AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE BELOW 3000 FEET. A FEW INCHES
ARE ALSO IN THE FORECAST FOR THE CASCADE CREST, NEAR STEVENS
PASS. SOME ACCUMULATION IS ALSO EXPECTED IN THE BLUE MOUNTAIN
AND ON THE HIGHER CAMAS PRAIRIE, WHERE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW
ARE POSSIBLE. THE LOWLAND SNOW POTENTIAL WILL BE TRICKER. WE ARE
IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD BUT GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING
SOME DISAGREEMENT WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS ON THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. THE HREF/REFS/NBM EACH SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT ACCUMULATION OVER SOUTHEASTERN SPOKANE COUNTY INTO UPPER
WA AND ID PALOUSE. BUT THAT LOOKS MOSTLY LIGHT, TRACE AMOUNTS TO
ABOUT A HALF INCH. THIS INCLUDES PLACES LIKE THE PULLMAN-MOSCOW
AREA AND THE BEST CHANCES WOULD TOWARD MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE SOME OUTLIER SOLUTIONS, LIKE THE
NAMNEST THAT BRINGS A BAND OF PRECIPITAITON UP ACROSS THE UPPER
COLUMBIA BASIN AND SPOKANE METRO OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY,
WITH A QUICK 0.5 TO 2 INCHES. HOWEVER ALL THE OTHER GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE PROBABILITY OF EVEN MEASURABLE SNOW (>=0.1") AT 15% OR
LESS. OBVIOUS THOSE HIGHER AMOUNTS WOULD HAVE IMPACT ON THE AM
COMMUTE BUT THAT MODEL IS NOT FORMING THE BASIS OF THE FORECAST.
RAIN AMOUNT-WISE THERE IS AROUND 0.20 TO 0.50" OVER SOUTHEAST WA
THROUGH THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, WITH LESS THAN A
TENTH ELSEWHERE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S OVER THE CASCADES
THROUGH NORTHEAST WA MOUNTAINS AND THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CWA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY THE WEATHER TURNS QUIETER, AS THE AREA SITS
IN AN AREA WITH A BUILDING RIDGE MINGLED WITH SOME WEAKER
IMPULSES SLIDING BY AT TIMES. THIS WILL MEAN SOME LIMITED
MOUNTAIN SNOW CHANCES AROUND TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOOK FOR SOME
PATCHY MORNING FOG, WITH OTHERWISE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.
RIGHT NOW MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING THE AREA BECOMING CLOGGED WITH
STRATUS, BUT IT WILL BE MONITORED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
30S AND 40S AND LOWS LARGELY IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S, WITH A FEW
LOCALIZED TEENS IN THE MORE SHELTERED AREAS.
FRIDAY TO SUNDAY: THE INLAND NW TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN, WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH APPROACHING THE COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD AND SLIPPING IN. AT THIS TIME, ENSEMBLES AT
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HIS EVOLUTION AND THE FORECAST SHOWS A
GENERAL WETTER AND COOLER PATTERN, WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. ALL THAT MEANS A POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED SNOW
THREAT, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD LATER NEXT WEEKEND.
LOWLAND COULD ALSO SEE SOME SNOW. FOR EITHER LOCATION IT IS TOO
EARLY TO KNOW HOW MUCH AND WHAT IMPACTS, BUT THAT TREND IS IN
THE FORECAST. /SOLVEIG
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEGUN MOVING NORTHWARD,
BRINGING RAIN TO THE GEG, COE, PUW, AND LWS AREAS, WITH RADAR
INDICATING RAIN TO BEGIN SHORTLY AT SFF. THERMAL PROFILES FOR
GEG AND SFF HAVE WARMED WITH MORE RECENT RUNS, LOWERING CHANCES
FOR SNOW. STILL, THE NBM/HREF HAVE A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
SNOW TO BE MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN, SO HAVE PUT A RAIN/SNOW MIX
IN THE TAFS FOR THESE TWO SITES. THERMAL PROFILES FOR COE AND
PUW HAVE ALSO WARMED BUT STILL SHOW A 20-40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
SNOW, AND THUS A RAIN/SNOW MIX HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN THE TAF AS
WELL. LWS IS EXPECTED TO SEE ALL RAIN. THIS PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO STAY EAST OF MWH AND EAT. FOR GEG AND SFF,
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO END AROUND 15Z. FOR COE, PUW, AND LWS,
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER LONGER, THROUGH 18Z FOR PUW AND LWS
AND THROUGH 00Z FOR COE. CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP A AND
CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP SHORTLY AFTER THE PRECIPITATION
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. GUIDANCE SHOWS A DROP IN VISIBILITY TO
3-4 SM, BUT INCREASING WINDS POST FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD KEEP
THESE VISIBILITIES FROM DROPPING INTO DENSE FOG TERRITORY.
CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FOR THESE SITES BY 00-02Z. MWH AND
EAT ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING RAIN FOR ALL TAF
SITES. LOW CONFIDENCE IN RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION NEAR THE END OF
PRECIPITATION FOR KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION CAUSING BRIEF TRAVEL IMPACTS OVERNIGHT.
A COUPLE MODELS INITIALLY SHOWED A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF SNOW
AROUND GEG/SFF/COE OVERNIGHT, BUT HAVE SINCE BACKED OFF -
HOWEVER, WORTH MENTIONING AS AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO SHOULD THINGS
RAMP UP. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WITH PRECIPITATION, AND FOR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY
00-02Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MWH/EAT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /AS
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 34 42 30 45 28 44 / 60 20 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 34 40 30 45 28 44 / 60 40 10 0 0 0
PULLMAN 34 40 30 43 29 42 / 90 60 10 0 0 0
LEWISTON 38 48 32 47 34 45 / 90 40 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 29 40 29 43 26 44 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 34 38 31 42 28 42 / 40 40 20 10 0 0
KELLOGG 34 38 29 43 27 43 / 90 80 30 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 30 48 28 47 28 47 / 40 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 33 46 31 42 30 46 / 20 10 0 0 0 0
OMAK 31 43 31 42 28 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST
MONDAY FOR CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS.
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