815
FXUS66 KOTX 090903
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
103 AM PST MON FEB 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY, RESULTING IN WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS AT TIMES OVER
MOUNTAIN PASSES.
- DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH
MONDAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES IN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY: THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS MOVING
NORTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA, BRINGING RAIN TO THE LOWLANDS
AND SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE THERE WAS INITIALLY POTENTIAL FOR
THE LOWLANDS TO GET SNOW, THERMAL PROFILES HAVE WARMED ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN NEARLY ALL RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL FALL BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING, WITH SYSTEM TOTALS
0.10-0.5 INCHES. HIGHEST PWATS AT 200-250% OF NORMAL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MOISTURE PLUME ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA, WHERE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED. HREF PROBABILITIES
SHOW CENTRAL IDAHO PANHANDLE, LEWISTON, AND PULLMAN AREAS HAVE A 70-
80% CHANCE AND ABOVE AT SEEING 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN. FOR SPOKANE,
THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF ONLY 0.10 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH CHANCES
DECREASING SHARPLY FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH.
BIGGEST IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WINTRY TRAVEL CONDITIONS
ALONG MOUNTAIN PASSES, PARTICULARLY IN THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. LOOKOUT
PASS HAS A 60-70% CHANCE OF SEEING 5 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH 10AM THIS MORNING. THE CASCADES WILL SEE SNOW
TO A LESSER EXTENT, WITH STEVENS PASS HAVING A 60-70% CHANCE OF
3 INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA,
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF US WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW, LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE, REACHING HIGH
30S TO MID 40S DURING THE DAY AND DROPPING TO THE HIGH 20S TO LOW
30S OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
NORTH OF US WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND DROP SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
CANADIAN COAST, LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONG-RANGE NBM PROBABILITIES
SHOW A 20-30% CHANCE AND ABOVE AT THE FORECAST AREA SEEING 0.10
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, COLDER AIR ADVECTED INTO THE
AREA WILL RESULT IN LOWER SNOW LEVELS AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR
LOWLAND SNOW. MOUNTAIN SNOW TOTALS RIGHT NOW LOOK LIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY, WITH 3-4 INCHES EXPECTED AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
THINGS BEGIN TO GET INTERESTING FURTHER INTO NEXT WEEK. CLUSTERS
UNANIMOUSLY SHOW THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENING SIGNIFICANTLY OFF
THE COAST, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN FURTHER ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION
ALONGSIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE CPC'S 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS
SHOW INCREASED CHANCES OF HIGHER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND
NEAR NORMAL TO LEANING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DUE TO THE
DRIER START TO OUR SNOWPACK THIS WINTER, THIS WILL BE SOMETHING
TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. /AS
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEGUN MOVING NORTHWARD,
BRINGING RAIN TO THE GEG, COE, PUW, AND LWS AREAS, WITH RADAR
INDICATING RAIN TO BEGIN SHORTLY AT SFF. THERMAL PROFILES FOR
GEG AND SFF HAVE WARMED WITH MORE RECENT RUNS, LOWERING CHANCES
FOR SNOW. STILL, THE NBM/HREF HAVE A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
SNOW TO BE MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN, SO HAVE PUT A RAIN/SNOW MIX
IN THE TAFS FOR THESE TWO SITES. THERMAL PROFILES FOR COE AND
PUW HAVE ALSO WARMED BUT STILL SHOW A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
SNOW, AND THUS A RAIN/SNOW MIX HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN THE TAF AS
WELL. LWS IS EXPECTED TO SEE ALL RAIN. THIS PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO STAY EAST OF MWH AND EAT. FOR GEG AND SFF,
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO END AROUND 15Z. FOR COE, PUW, AND LWS,
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER LONGER, THROUGH 18Z FOR PUW AND LWS
AND THROUGH 00Z FOR COE. CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP
SHORTLY AFTER THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. GUIDANCE
SHOWS A DROP IN VISIBILITY TO 3-4 SM, BUT INCREASING WINDS POST
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD KEEP THESE VISIBILITIES FROM DROPPING
INTO DENSE FOG TERRITORY. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FOR THESE
SITES BY 00-02Z. MWH AND EAT ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT VFR/MVFR
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING RAIN FOR ALL TAF
SITES. LOW CONFIDENCE IN RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION NEAR THE END OF
PRECIPITATION FOR KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION CAUSING BRIEF TRAVEL IMPACTS OVERNIGHT.
A COUPLE MODELS INITIALLY SHOWED A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF SNOW
AROUND GEG/SFF/COE OVERNIGHT, BUT HAVE SINCE BACKED OFF -
HOWEVER, WORTH MENTIONING AS AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO SHOULD THINGS
RAMP UP. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WITH PRECIPITATION, AND FOR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY
00-02Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MWH/EAT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /AS
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 42 30 44 28 44 28 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 41 30 44 27 44 27 / 60 10 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 41 30 44 30 42 30 / 60 10 0 0 10 0
LEWISTON 48 32 48 33 45 33 / 50 0 0 0 10 0
COLVILLE 42 27 43 25 44 25 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 39 31 42 28 42 27 / 50 20 10 0 0 0
KELLOGG 38 29 43 28 43 27 / 90 40 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 48 28 48 28 48 28 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 47 31 42 30 46 31 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 43 31 42 28 45 29 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS.
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