959
FXUS66 KOTX 091229
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
429 AM PST MON FEB 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVER THE CASCADE AND CENTRAL IDAHO
PANHANDLE MOUNTAIN PASSES MONDAY.
- AREAS OF MORNING FOG AND BLACK ICE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVER MOUNTAIN
PASSES THIS WEEKEND.
SYNOPSIS
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH
MONDAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES IN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY: THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS MOVING
NORTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA, BRINGING RAIN TO THE LOWLANDS
AND SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE THERE WAS INITIALLY POTENTIAL FOR
THE LOWLANDS TO GET SNOW, THERMAL PROFILES HAVE WARMED ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN NEARLY ALL RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL FALL BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING, WITH SYSTEM TOTALS
0.10-0.5 INCHES. HIGHEST PWATS AT 200-250% OF NORMAL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MOISTURE PLUME ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA, WHERE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED. HREF PROBABILITIES
SHOW CENTRAL IDAHO PANHANDLE, LEWISTON, AND PULLMAN AREAS HAVE A 70-
80% CHANCE AND ABOVE AT SEEING 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN. FOR SPOKANE,
THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF ONLY 0.10 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH CHANCES
DECREASING SHARPLY FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH.
BIGGEST IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WINTRY TRAVEL CONDITIONS
ALONG MOUNTAIN PASSES, PARTICULARLY IN THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. LOOKOUT
PASS HAS A 60-70% CHANCE OF SEEING 5 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH 10AM THIS MORNING. THE CASCADES WILL SEE SNOW
TO A LESSER EXTENT, WITH STEVENS PASS HAVING A 60-70% CHANCE OF
3 INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA,
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF US WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW, LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE, REACHING HIGH
30S TO MID 40S DURING THE DAY AND DROPPING TO THE HIGH 20S TO LOW
30S OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
NORTH OF US WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND DROP SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
CANADIAN COAST, LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONG-RANGE NBM PROBABILITIES
SHOW A 20-30% CHANCE AND ABOVE AT THE FORECAST AREA SEEING 0.10
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, COLDER AIR ADVECTED INTO THE
AREA WILL RESULT IN LOWER SNOW LEVELS AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR
LOWLAND SNOW. MOUNTAIN SNOW TOTALS RIGHT NOW LOOK LIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY, WITH 3-4 INCHES EXPECTED AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
THINGS BEGIN TO GET INTERESTING FURTHER INTO NEXT WEEK. CLUSTERS
UNANIMOUSLY SHOW THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENING SIGNIFICANTLY OFF
THE COAST, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN FURTHER ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION
ALONGSIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE CPC'S 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS
SHOW INCREASED CHANCES OF HIGHER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND
NEAR NORMAL TO LEANING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DUE TO THE
DRIER START TO OUR SNOWPACK THIS WINTER, THIS WILL BE SOMETHING
TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. /AS
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: RADAR SHOWS THE BACKSIDE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
THROUGH EASTERN SPOKANE COUNTY AND WESTERN WHITMAN COUNTY, WITH
RAIN ENDING SHORTLY AT KGEG/KSFF AND TAPERING AT KPUW AND KCOE
THROUGH 15-18Z. EXPECT A MIX OF CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH LIFR FOG IN CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS
ACROSS FAR EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO. MODELS INDICATE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR OR HIGH MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS RELATIVELY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE INLAND NORTHWEST AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INCREASES. WINDS WILL RELAX TONIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES, CREATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FOG AND
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL WASHINGTON, THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS, AND AROUND KGEG/KSFF/KCOE. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT
TO THE EAST BETWEEN 03-09Z, WHICH WILL SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT AT
KPUW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
MORNING WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN KCOE IMPROVING TO VFR WITH MODELS INDICATING
A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OR GREATER FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
AT KPUW WILL DEPEND ON THE SHIFT TO EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS, WHICH COULD BE DELAYED BY A COUPLE HOURS THAN WHAT IS IN
THE TAF.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 42 30 44 28 44 28 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 41 30 44 27 44 27 / 60 10 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 41 30 44 30 42 30 / 60 10 0 0 10 0
LEWISTON 48 32 48 33 45 33 / 50 0 0 0 10 0
COLVILLE 42 27 43 25 44 25 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 39 31 42 28 42 27 / 50 20 10 0 0 0
KELLOGG 38 29 43 28 43 27 / 90 40 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 48 28 48 28 48 28 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 47 31 42 30 46 31 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 43 31 42 28 45 29 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS.
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