724
FXUS66 KOTX 092229
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
229 PM PST MON FEB 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF MORNING FOG AND BLACK ICE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVER MOUNTAIN
PASSES THIS WEEKEND.
SYNOPSIS
THE INLAND NORTHWEST WILL GO BACK INTO A DRY PERIOD FOR TOMORROW
THROUGH THURSDAY. VALLEY FOG AT TIMES OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING
HOURS THROUGH MID WEEK. ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
VALLEYS. COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT LOWLAND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: THE INLAND NORTHWEST WILL START OUT
UNDER A BAGGY LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH A BRIEF TRANSITION TO A RIDGE
OF HIGHER PRESSURE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE STORM TRACK
WILL BE DIVERTED SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH THE SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES BEING DIRECTED INTO CALIFORNIA. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE "NORTHERN BRANCH" OF THE STORM TRACK
WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND PRIMARILY DELIVER ADDITIONAL LIGHT
PRECIPITATION INTO NORTHWEST WASHINGTON AND BC THROUGH TUESDAY.
THERE WILL BE SOME PASSING HIGHER CLOUDS AT TIMES. WHERE THE
HIGHER CLOUDS ARE THINNER OVERNIGHT IS WHERE VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL SEE A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO FORM. THOSE AREAS TONIGHT
WILL INCLUDE THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, ACROSS THE NORTHERN
NORTH PORTIONS OF THE UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN, WEST PLAIN, AND OVER
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN. INVERSIONS WILL BE
FAIRLY WEEK THOUGH THIS WEAK AND ANY FOG THAT FORMS IS EXPECTED
TO BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING. STILL, WITH TEMPERATURE DIPPING
NEAR FREEZING AND SOME PATCHES POTENTIALLY SEEING DENSE FOG,
MORNING COMMUTES MAY BE A BIT SLOW GOING AND SHOULD PLAN
ACCORDINGLY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: A POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MAKES ITS ENTRANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE DOWN TO BETWEEN 2500-3500 FEET. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH
THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH GIVING US MORE OF A GLANCING
BLOW WITH MOISTURE. SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE MOUNTAINS WITH
MAINLY RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW PARTICULARLY FOR
THE COLDER PARTS OF THE DAY IS EXPECTED. LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS THOUGH. THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SNOW
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MUCH OF THAT UNCERTAINTY COMES WITH HOW
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EVOLVE. APPROXIMATELY 60-80% OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A DEEPER TROUGH WITH A
CLOSED LOW FORMING OFF OF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS PRIMARY
SCENARIO KEEPS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE REGION.
THE THERE'S 30% OR SO OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WHICH IS MADE UP OF
60% OF THE GEFS THAT KEEPS THE TROUGH OPEN WITH BETTER DYNAMICS
PUSHING ACROSS AND IS A WETTER SCENARIO FOR THE WEEKEND IN
PARTICULAR. THE WETTER SCENARIO WOULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW AND WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS
STEVENS AND LOOKOUT PASS, BUT MOST LIKELY WILL BE JUST MINOR
NUISANCE WINTER IMPACTS WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE MOVING UP INTO
THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES COOL TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF FEBRUARY AT
THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S AND HIGHS
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BY THE WEEKEND. /SVH
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: A PERSISTENT PATCH OF DENSE FOG AT KMWH AND KEPH WILL
LIFT AS TEMPERATURES WARM BETWEEN 19-21Z TODAY. THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL SEE LOW STRATUS TO STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY.
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN
POTENTIAL FOR CEILINGS TO LIFT ABOVE 3 KFT AGL. BY MID AFTERNOON
(BY 21-23Z); BUT, MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY ACROSS THE
EXPOSED AREAS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN INTO THE SPOKANE AREA AND
PALOUSE WITH GUSTS UP TO 18-25 KTS FOR KGEG AND KPUW. WINDS BACK
TONIGHT AND BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE PALOUSE. KLWS WILL
STILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG, BUT DRIER EASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS KPUW SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED VFR SKIES. A MIX OF LOW
STRATUS AND/OR FOG WITH IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SPOKANE/COEUR D'ALENE CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, BUT WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING BY LATE
MORNING. A DIFFERENT STORY FOR NEAR THE CASCADES (KEPH/KMWH TO
KEAT) WHERE MOISTURE AND FOG/LOW STRATUS AND IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AFTER 05Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR CEILINGS TO LIFT TODAY TO BETWEEN
2,500-4,500 AGL. BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH TIMING OF WHEN
FOG WILL MIX OUT OF KMWH IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AND MAY BE DELAYED
AN HOUR OR TWO WITH WHAT IS IN THE TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH LOW STRATUS OR FOR AT KCOE/KSFF-
KGEG/KMWH/KEAT MONDAY NIGHT, AND LOW CONFIDENCE FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP AT KLWS OVERNIGHT. /SVH
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 30 45 27 44 28 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 30 45 27 44 28 42 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 30 44 29 44 30 43 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 32 48 33 47 33 47 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 28 43 26 44 26 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 32 43 27 42 28 39 / 20 10 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 29 43 27 44 29 42 / 40 0 0 0 0 10
MOSES LAKE 28 48 28 49 28 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 31 42 30 46 32 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 31 42 29 45 30 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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