807
FXUS66 KOTX 100719
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1119 PM PST MON FEB 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF MORNING FOG AND BLACK ICE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVER MOUNTAIN
PASSES THIS WEEKEND.
SYNOPSIS
THE INLAND NORTHWEST RETURNS TO A DRY PERIOD FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOOK FOR VALLEY FOG AT TIMES OVERNIGHT INTO
THE MORNING HOURS THROUGH MID WEEK. ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW IN THE VALLEYS. COLDER TEMPERATURES, WITH LOWERING
SNOW LEVELS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK,
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT LOWLAND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: THE INLAND NORTHWEST WILL START OUT
UNDER A BAGGY LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH A BRIEF TRANSITION TO A RIDGE
OF HIGHER PRESSURE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE STORM TRACK
WILL BE DIVERTED SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH THE SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES BEING DIRECTED INTO CALIFORNIA. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE "NORTHERN BRANCH" OF THE STORM TRACK
WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND PRIMARILY DELIVER ADDITIONAL LIGHT
PRECIPITATION INTO NORTHWEST WASHINGTON AND BC THROUGH TUESDAY.
THERE WILL BE SOME PASSING HIGHER CLOUDS AT TIMES. WHERE THE
HIGHER CLOUDS ARE THINNER OVERNIGHT IS WHERE VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL SEE A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO FORM. THOSE AREAS TONIGHT
WILL INCLUDE THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, ACROSS THE NORTHERN
NORTH PORTIONS OF THE UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN, WEST PLAIN, AND OVER
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN. INVERSIONS WILL BE
FAIRLY WEEK THOUGH THIS WEAK AND ANY FOG THAT FORMS IS EXPECTED
TO BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING. STILL, WITH TEMPERATURE DIPPING
NEAR FREEZING AND SOME PATCHES POTENTIALLY SEEING DENSE FOG,
MORNING COMMUTES MAY BE A BIT SLOW GOING AND SHOULD PLAN
ACCORDINGLY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: A POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MAKES ITS ENTRANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE DOWN TO BETWEEN 2500-3500 FEET. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH
THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH GIVING US MORE OF A GLANCING
BLOW WITH MOISTURE. SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE MOUNTAINS WITH
MAINLY RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW PARTICULARLY FOR
THE COLDER PARTS OF THE DAY IS EXPECTED. LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS THOUGH. THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SNOW
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MUCH OF THAT UNCERTAINTY COMES WITH HOW
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EVOLVE. APPROXIMATELY 60-80% OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A DEEPER TROUGH WITH A
CLOSED LOW FORMING OFF OF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS PRIMARY
SCENARIO KEEPS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE REGION.
THE THERE'S 30% OR SO OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WHICH IS MADE UP OF
60% OF THE GEFS THAT KEEPS THE TROUGH OPEN WITH BETTER DYNAMICS
PUSHING ACROSS AND IS A WETTER SCENARIO FOR THE WEEKEND IN
PARTICULAR. THE WETTER SCENARIO WOULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW AND WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS
STEVENS AND LOOKOUT PASS, BUT MOST LIKELY WILL BE JUST MINOR
NUISANCE WINTER IMPACTS WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE MOVING UP INTO
THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES COOL TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF FEBRUARY AT
THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S AND HIGHS
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BY THE WEEKEND. /SVH
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: THE WAVE OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOSTLY MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW RADAR ECHOES IN THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE. CEILINGS HAVE INCREASED TO VFR STATUS FOR ALL TAF
SITES. CONFIDENCE IN FOG FORMATION OUTSIDE OF MWH IS LOW. WHILE
SOME MODELS SHOW A 10-20% CHANCE OF CEILINGS BELOW 2000 FEET AND
LOWERED VISIBILITIES, OTHER MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR MOVING IN,
LIMITING ANY CEILING DEGRADATION. IN PARTICULAR, THE NAM IS
ALMOST ALWAYS TOO MOIST, AND MOST OTHER SINGLE MEMBERS FAVOR
HIGHER CEILINGS. THERE ARE LOWERED CEILINGS FOR GEG, SFF, AND
COE, BUT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT WOULDN'T BE DENSE AND NEARLY ALL
MODELS HAVE IT DISSIPATING BY 18Z. EAT, PUW, AND LWS LOOK TO
STAY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CLEARER SIGNAL FOR
FOG AT MWH GIVEN LINGERING MOISTURE, DENSE FOG YESTERDAY, AND
EASTERLY WINDS. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG, BUT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND 11Z AND IFR CONDITIONS
AROUND 14Z. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS SITES, IT WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY, BY 19Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SHALLOW FOG AND DEGRADED CEILINGS
AT GEG, SFF, AND COE. THIS IS WHERE THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST IS. ALTERNATE SCENARIO WOULD BE DENSE FOG
FORMATION TRIGGERING AMENDMENTS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SHALLOW
FOG AND LOWERED CEILINGS FOR MWH. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT EAT, PUW,
AND LWS WILL STAY VFR THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. /AS
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 30 45 27 44 28 42 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 30 45 27 44 28 42 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 30 44 29 44 30 43 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 32 48 33 47 33 47 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 28 43 26 44 26 42 / 0 10 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 32 43 27 42 28 39 / 30 20 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 29 43 27 44 29 42 / 30 0 0 0 0 10
MOSES LAKE 28 48 28 49 28 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 31 42 30 46 32 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 31 42 29 45 30 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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