358
FXUS66 KOTX 100900
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
100 AM PST TUE FEB 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF MORNING FOG AND BLACK ICE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVER MOUNTAIN
PASSES THIS WEEKEND.
SYNOPSIS
THE INLAND NORTHWEST RETURNS TO A DRY PERIOD TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. VALLEY FOG AND TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING COULD
RESULT IN SLICK ROADS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW IN THE VALLEYS. COLDER TEMPERATURES, WITH LOWERING SNOW
LEVELS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT LOWLAND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH
OF US BEGIN STRENGTHENING, ALLOWING A QUICK SHORTWAVE TO PASS
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN LINGERING PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA, BUT NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. BIGGEST POTENTIAL IMPACTS THIS MORNING COME FROM DROPPING
TEMPERATURES AND FOG FORMATION. WHILE DENSE FOG ISN'T EXPECTED, SOME
SHALLOW FOG MAY BE SEEN ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND SPOKANE/COEUR
D'ALENE AREAS. GIVEN THAT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP BELOW
FREEZING THIS MORNING, PATCHY FOG COULD RESULT IN BLACK ICE,
IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE. IN SHORT, BE PREPARED TO SLOW DOWN
AND GIVE YOURSELF EXTRA ROOM. BY WEDNESDAY, THE SAME LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL BE FAR ENOUGH APART THAT WE'LL GET SOME RIDGING THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA, RESULTING IN A DRY PERIOD WITH PWATS ONLY 70-80%
OF NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGH 30S TO LOW 40S ANTICIPATED EACH AFTERNOON. RADIATIONAL COOLING
FROM CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT CLOSER
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: ON FRIDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
NORTH WILL BEGIN MOVING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE CANADIAN COAST. THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL STAY MOSTLY OVER THE PACIFIC, WHICH WILL MITIGATE
IMPACTS AND KEEP PRECIPITATION TOTALS LOW. AROUND 0.10-0.25 INCHES
OF PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOWER WITH THIS
SYSTEM, ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHT LOWLAND SNOW, THOUGH LONG TERM
MODELS SHOW AN INCH OR SO AT MOST. MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL SEE 3-4
INCHES, WHICH WILL RESULT IN WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS, BUT NO
MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO SHOW A UNANIMOUS SIGNAL
THAT THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY, BRINGING
ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS TO MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
BRING AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO THE FORECAST AREA
NEXT WEEK. THE CPC'S 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS CORROBORATE THIS,
SHOWING INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON,
PARTICULARLY DUE TO THE DRY START WE'VE HAD TO OUR SNOWPACK. /AS
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: THE WAVE OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOSTLY MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW RADAR ECHOES IN THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE. CEILINGS HAVE INCREASED TO VFR STATUS FOR ALL TAF
SITES. CONFIDENCE IN FOG FORMATION OUTSIDE OF MWH IS LOW. WHILE
SOME MODELS SHOW A 10-20% CHANCE OF CEILINGS BELOW 2000 FEET AND
LOWERED VISIBILITIES, OTHER MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR MOVING IN,
LIMITING ANY CEILING DEGRADATION. IN PARTICULAR, THE NAM IS
ALMOST ALWAYS TOO MOIST, AND MOST OTHER SINGLE MEMBERS FAVOR
HIGHER CEILINGS. THERE ARE LOWERED CEILINGS FOR GEG, SFF, AND
COE, BUT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT WOULDN'T BE DENSE AND NEARLY ALL
MODELS HAVE IT DISSIPATING BY 18Z. EAT, PUW, AND LWS LOOK TO
STAY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CLEARER SIGNAL FOR
FOG AT MWH GIVEN LINGERING MOISTURE, DENSE FOG YESTERDAY, AND
EASTERLY WINDS. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG, BUT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND 11Z AND IFR CONDITIONS
AROUND 14Z. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS SITES, IT WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY, BY 19Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SHALLOW FOG AND DEGRADED CEILINGS
AT GEG, SFF, AND COE. THIS IS WHERE THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST IS. ALTERNATE SCENARIO WOULD BE DENSE FOG
FORMATION TRIGGERING AMENDMENTS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SHALLOW
FOG AND LOWERED CEILINGS FOR MWH. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT EAT, PUW,
AND LWS WILL STAY VFR THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. /AS
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 46 28 44 27 41 29 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 45 28 44 26 43 28 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 44 29 44 28 43 29 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 48 32 47 32 47 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 43 25 43 26 42 27 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 42 28 42 27 40 29 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 43 28 44 27 43 29 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 49 28 48 28 43 29 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 42 30 46 31 43 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 42 30 45 31 42 31 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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