528
FXUS66 KOTX 101235
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
435 AM PST TUE FEB 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF MORNING FOG AND BLACK ICE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVER MOUNTAIN
PASSES THIS WEEKEND.
SYNOPSIS
THE INLAND NORTHWEST RETURNS TO A DRY PERIOD TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. VALLEY FOG AND TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING COULD
RESULT IN SLICK ROADS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW IN THE VALLEYS. COLDER TEMPERATURES, WITH LOWERING SNOW
LEVELS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT LOWLAND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH
OF US BEGIN STRENGTHENING, ALLOWING A QUICK SHORTWAVE TO PASS
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN LINGERING PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA, BUT NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. BIGGEST POTENTIAL IMPACTS THIS MORNING COME FROM DROPPING
TEMPERATURES AND FOG FORMATION. WHILE DENSE FOG ISN'T EXPECTED, SOME
SHALLOW FOG MAY BE SEEN ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND SPOKANE/COEUR
D'ALENE AREAS. GIVEN THAT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP BELOW
FREEZING THIS MORNING, PATCHY FOG COULD RESULT IN BLACK ICE,
IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE. IN SHORT, BE PREPARED TO SLOW DOWN
AND GIVE YOURSELF EXTRA ROOM. BY WEDNESDAY, THE SAME LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL BE FAR ENOUGH APART THAT WE'LL GET SOME RIDGING THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA, RESULTING IN A DRY PERIOD WITH PWATS ONLY 70-80%
OF NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGH 30S TO LOW 40S ANTICIPATED EACH AFTERNOON. RADIATIONAL COOLING
FROM CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT CLOSER
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: ON FRIDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
NORTH WILL BEGIN MOVING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE CANADIAN COAST. THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL STAY MOSTLY OVER THE PACIFIC, WHICH WILL MITIGATE
IMPACTS AND KEEP PRECIPITATION TOTALS LOW. AROUND 0.10-0.25 INCHES
OF PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOWER WITH THIS
SYSTEM, ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHT LOWLAND SNOW, THOUGH LONG TERM
MODELS SHOW AN INCH OR SO AT MOST. MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL SEE 3-4
INCHES, WHICH WILL RESULT IN WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS, BUT NO
MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO SHOW A UNANIMOUS SIGNAL
THAT THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY, BRINGING
ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS TO MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
BRING AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO THE FORECAST AREA
NEXT WEEK. THE CPC'S 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS CORROBORATE THIS,
SHOWING INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON,
PARTICULARLY DUE TO THE DRY START WE'VE HAD TO OUR SNOWPACK. /AS
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: GENERALLY CALMER CONDITIONS THIS MORNING FOR THE
INLAND NORTHWEST. A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS BEING OBSERVED OVER
FAR EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO WITH LINGERING SHOWERS IN
NORTH IDAHO THIS MORNING. THIS IS LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF
COOLING AT KGEG/KSFF/KCOE AND INHIBITING FOG DEVELOPMENT. ACROSS
THE NORTHERN VALLEYS, LOW STRATUS AND FOG IS EXPANDING WITH
MVFR CEILINGS AT DEER PARK AND COLVILLE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS BANK FILTERING INTO THE COLUMBIA
BASIN AND WATERVILLE PLATEAU OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FROM
THE NORTH. RECENT MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MORE ON THE
OPTIMISTIC SIDE, LOWERING CONFIDENCE IF FOG WILL MAKE IT INTO
KMWH. THOUGH, SATELLITE DOES SHOW FOG ATTEMPTING TO EXPAND SOUTH
AND 06Z RUNS OF THE HREF AND REFS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS AS
WELL. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, KEPT A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR
PATCHY FOG IN THE TAF FOR MWH BETWEEN 14-18Z. MODELS ALSO SHOW
THE BANK OF STRATUS SHIFTING INTO KEAT AFTER 17Z, BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THIS RESULTING IN AN MVFR CEILING AT KEAT IS LOW.
EXPECT ANY LOW CEILINGS TO IMPROVE BY THE LATE MORNING AS
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INCREASES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH IN CENTRAL
WASHINGTON AND FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST ACROSS EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON, INCLUDING KPUW, WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS 10-15 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED BY THE MID- MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE INLAND NORTHWEST FROM THE SOUTH
THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MODELS SUGGESTING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE END THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPING AT KMWH. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP,
IT WOULD BE SHALLOW WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY THE LATE
MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN AN MVFR CEILING MOVING INTO KEAT
LATER THIS MORNING. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR
KGEG/KSFF/COE TO REMAIN VFR AND HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR KPUW AND
KLWS.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 46 28 44 27 41 29 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 45 28 44 26 43 28 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 44 29 44 28 43 29 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 48 32 47 32 47 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 43 25 43 26 42 27 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 42 28 42 27 40 29 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 43 28 44 27 43 29 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 49 28 48 28 43 29 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 42 30 46 31 43 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 42 30 45 31 42 31 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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