200
FXUS66 KOTX 101823
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1023 AM PST TUE FEB 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF MORNING FOG AND BLACK ICE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVER MOUNTAIN
PASSES THIS WEEKEND.
SYNOPSIS
THE INLAND NORTHWEST RETURNS TO A DRY PERIOD TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. VALLEY FOG AND TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING COULD
RESULT IN SLICK ROADS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW IN THE VALLEYS. COLDER TEMPERATURES, WITH LOWERING SNOW
LEVELS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT LOWLAND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH OF US BEGIN STRENGTHENING, ALLOWING A QUICK SHORTWAVE TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN LINGERING
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA, BUT NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. BIGGEST POTENTIAL IMPACTS
THIS MORNING COME FROM DROPPING TEMPERATURES AND FOG FORMATION.
WHILE DENSE FOG ISN'T EXPECTED, SOME SHALLOW FOG MAY BE SEEN
ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND SPOKANE/COEUR D'ALENE AREAS. GIVEN
THAT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP BELOW FREEZING THIS
MORNING, PATCHY FOG COULD RESULT IN BLACK ICE, IMPACTING THE
MORNING COMMUTE. IN SHORT, BE PREPARED TO SLOW DOWN AND GIVE
YOURSELF EXTRA ROOM. BY WEDNESDAY, THE SAME LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH APART THAT WE'LL GET SOME RIDGING THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA, RESULTING IN A DRY PERIOD WITH PWATS ONLY
70-80% OF NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGH 30S TO LOW 40S ANTICIPATED EACH AFTERNOON.
RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW LOW
TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: ON FRIDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
OUR NORTH WILL BEGIN MOVING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE CANADIAN COAST.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL STAY MOSTLY OVER THE PACIFIC, WHICH WILL
MITIGATE IMPACTS AND KEEP PRECIPITATION TOTALS LOW. AROUND
0.10-0.25 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE LOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM, ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHT LOWLAND
SNOW, THOUGH LONG TERM MODELS SHOW AN INCH OR SO AT MOST.
MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL SEE 3-4 INCHES, WHICH WILL RESULT IN WINTER
DRIVING CONDITIONS, BUT NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO SHOW A UNANIMOUS
SIGNAL THAT THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY,
BRINGING ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS TO MUCH OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN TO THE FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEK. THE CPC'S 6-10 AND 8-14
DAY OUTLOOKS CORROBORATE THIS, SHOWING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THIS
WILL BE 18Z TAFS: DRY, STABLE AIRMASS IS MOVING INTO THE REGION.
FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NORTHERN VALLEYS.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SATURATION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD PRODUCE PATCHY FOG DURING
THE BETWEEN 04-10Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IMPACTING TAF SITES.
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON, PARTICULARLY DUE TO THE DRY START
WE'VE HAD TO OUR SNOWPACK. /AS
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: DRY, STABLE AIRMASS IS MOVING INTO THE REGION. FOG
WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NORTHERN VALLEYS. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SATURATION
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD PRODUCE PATCHY FOG DURING THE
BETWEEN 04-10Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IMPACTING TAF SITES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN FOG IMPACTING TAF SITES.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 46 28 44 27 41 29 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 45 28 44 26 43 28 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 44 29 44 28 43 29 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 48 32 47 32 47 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 43 25 43 26 42 27 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 42 28 42 27 40 29 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 43 28 44 27 43 29 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 49 28 48 28 43 29 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 42 30 46 31 43 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 42 30 45 31 42 31 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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