782
FXUS66 KOTX 110835
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1235 AM PST WED FEB 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF MORNING FOG AND BLACK ICE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVER MOUNTAIN
PASSES THIS WEEKEND.
SYNOPSIS
THE INLAND NORTHWEST RETURNS TO A DRY PERIOD TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING
COULD RESULT IN SLICK ROADS EACH MORNING. ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW IN THE VALLEYS. COLDER TEMPERATURES, WITH LOWERING SNOW
LEVELS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT LOWLAND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE PNW COAST WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD AND TAKE AIM AT CALIFORNIA. RIDGING WILL
BEGIN FILLING IN BY LATE THIS MORNING, BRINGING MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. BIGGEST IMPACTS SEEN WILL BE THIS MORNING
AND TOMORROW MORNING FROM FOG DEVELOPMENT. AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
FOG ARE BODIES OF WATER AND SHELTERED VALLEYS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE IS STILL HIGH. WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FINALLY DIPPING BELOW
FREEZING AGAIN, ANY PATCHY FOG THAT DOES FORM CAN RESULT IN BLACK
ICE, MAKING ROADS SLICK AND IMPACTING MORNING COMMUTES. THIS FOG
WILL NOT STICK AROUND LONG, WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY AROUND
10AM.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: A LOW LOCATED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE CANADIAN COAST AND OUT INTO
THE PACIFIC OCEAN. WHILE SOME OF THE ENERGY WILL MOVE OVER US,
CLUSTERS HAVE THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW MOSTLY
OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEGINNING
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW IN THE LOWLAND. LOOKING AT 48 HOUR PRECIPITATION
TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY, THE NBM SHOWS A 50-90% CHANCE OF 0.10 INCHES,
WITH THE LOWEST PROBABILITIES OVER THE LOWLANDS AND THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT,
WITH STEVENS PASS HAVING A 40-50% CHANCE OF SEEING 2 OR MORE INCHES
OF SNOW, AND LOOKOUT PASS HAVING A 40-50% CHANCE OF SEEING 4 INCHES
OR MORE. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINTRY TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG MOUNTAIN
PASSES, BUT OVERALL IMPACTS ARE LOOKING TO BE MINOR. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE LOWER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN AS OF LATE, BUT ANY LOWLAND
SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. MORE IMPORTANTLY,
FREEZING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION
REFREEZING OVERNIGHT. BE PREPARED FOR MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO
SLICK ROADS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THIS SAME LOW WILL RESTRENGTHEN OVER THE
PACIFIC, THEN BEGIN MOVING NORTHEAST AS IT WEAKENS, PASSING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO UNANIMOUSLY
SHOW ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA. LONG RANGE NBM
ESTIMATES SHOW 72-HR PRECIPITATION TOTALS NEAR 0.25 INCHES AND
5-8 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN LOW AND
FAVOR MORE LOWLAND SNOW, BUT TOTALS INDICATE A COUPLE INCHES AT
MOST. THE CPC'S 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS FAVOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. BOTTOM LINE: BE
PREPARED FOR AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF POTENTIAL WINTRY TRAVEL CONDITIONS. /AS
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: A DRIER AIRMASS HAS SETTLED OVER THE REGION. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN FOG FORMATION IS MUCH LOWER THIS MORNING
DUE TO THE DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER, BUT THE MAIN RISK WITH ANY FOG
FORMATION IS BLACK ICE DUE TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN FOG IMPACTING TAF SITES. /AS
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 45 28 43 29 40 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 40
COEUR D'ALENE 45 28 43 29 42 33 / 0 0 0 0 10 50
PULLMAN 46 29 44 30 44 35 / 0 0 0 0 0 40
LEWISTON 48 31 48 33 48 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 30
COLVILLE 45 26 43 27 39 31 / 0 0 0 0 10 50
SANDPOINT 42 28 41 30 39 33 / 0 0 0 0 20 70
KELLOGG 45 30 44 30 42 36 / 0 0 0 0 10 70
MOSES LAKE 50 28 43 28 42 31 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
WENATCHEE 46 32 44 32 41 31 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
OMAK 45 31 43 31 41 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 20
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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