718
FXUS66 KOTX 111756
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
956 AM PST WED FEB 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF MORNING FOG AND BLACK ICE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVER MOUNTAIN
PASSES THIS WEEKEND.
SYNOPSIS
THE INLAND NORTHWEST RETURNS TO A DRY PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY.
PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING COULD RESULT
IN SLICK ROADS EACH MORNING. A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
RETURNS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW IN THE VALLEYS. COLDER TEMPERATURES, WITH
LOWERING SNOW LEVELS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK, WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT LOWLAND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE PNW COAST
WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD AND TAKE AIM AT CALIFORNIA.
RIDGING WILL BEGIN FILLING IN BY LATE THIS MORNING, BRINGING
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. BIGGEST IMPACTS SEEN WILL BE
THIS MORNING AND TOMORROW MORNING FROM FOG DEVELOPMENT. AREAS
MOST LIKELY TO SEE FOG ARE BODIES OF WATER AND SHELTERED VALLEYS
WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS STILL HIGH. WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES FINALLY DIPPING BELOW FREEZING AGAIN, ANY PATCHY
FOG THAT DOES FORM CAN RESULT IN BLACK ICE, MAKING ROADS SLICK
AND IMPACTING MORNING COMMUTES. THIS FOG WILL NOT STICK AROUND
LONG, WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY AROUND 10AM.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: A LOW LOCATED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE CANADIAN COAST AND OUT
INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN. WHILE SOME OF THE ENERGY WILL MOVE OVER
US, CLUSTERS HAVE THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW MOSTLY OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE LOWLAND.
LOOKING AT 48 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY, THE NBM
SHOWS A 50-90% CHANCE OF 0.10 INCHES, WITH THE LOWEST
PROBABILITIES OVER THE LOWLANDS AND THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT, WITH STEVENS
PASS HAVING A 40-50% CHANCE OF SEEING 2 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW,
AND LOOKOUT PASS HAVING A 40-50% CHANCE OF SEEING 4 INCHES OR
MORE. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINTRY TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG
MOUNTAIN PASSES, BUT OVERALL IMPACTS ARE LOOKING TO BE MINOR.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOWER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN AS OF LATE, BUT
ANY LOWLAND SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION.
MORE IMPORTANTLY, FREEZING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN
ANY PRECIPITATION REFREEZING OVERNIGHT. BE PREPARED FOR MINOR
TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SLICK ROADS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THIS SAME LOW WILL RESTRENGTHEN OVER
THE PACIFIC, THEN BEGIN MOVING NORTHEAST AS IT WEAKENS,
PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLUSTERS
CONTINUE TO UNANIMOUSLY SHOW ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS OVER THE
AREA. LONG RANGE NBM ESTIMATES SHOW 72-HR PRECIPITATION TOTALS
NEAR 0.25 INCHES AND 5-8 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW
LEVELS REMAIN LOW AND FAVOR MORE LOWLAND SNOW, BUT TOTALS
INDICATE A COUPLE INCHES AT MOST. THE CPC'S 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY
OUTLOOKS FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. BOTTOM LINE: BE PREPARED FOR AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF POTENTIAL WINTRY
TRAVEL CONDITIONS. /AS
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: A DRY AIRMASS COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL
INVERSIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS HAS CREATED A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR WATER BODIES AND IN
FAVORED VALLEYS, PRIMARILY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR TERMINALS AROUND WATER BODIES WHICH
COULD SEE SHALLOW FOG THIS MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 45 28 43 29 40 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 40
COEUR D'ALENE 45 28 43 29 42 33 / 0 0 0 0 10 50
PULLMAN 46 29 44 30 44 35 / 0 0 0 0 0 40
LEWISTON 48 31 48 33 48 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 30
COLVILLE 45 26 43 27 39 31 / 0 0 0 0 10 50
SANDPOINT 42 28 41 30 39 33 / 0 0 0 0 20 70
KELLOGG 45 30 44 30 42 36 / 0 0 0 0 10 70
MOSES LAKE 50 28 43 28 42 31 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
WENATCHEE 46 32 44 32 41 31 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
OMAK 45 31 43 31 41 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 20
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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