015
FXUS66 KOTX 121324
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
524 AM PST THU FEB 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF MORNING FOG AND BLACK ICE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVER MOUNTAIN
PASSES THIS WEEKEND.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
THE INLAND NORTHWEST REMAINS DRY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. PATCHY
VALLEY FOG AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES COULD RESULT IN SLICK ROADS
EACH MORNING. A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
VALLEYS. FALLING SNOW LEVELS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
LOWLAND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
DISCUSSION
TODAY: RIDGING HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH
WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER,
OVERNIGHT INVERSIONS AND LOW WINDS COMBINED WITH THE DRIER AIR BRING
A SHALLOW FOG THREAT TO AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER. WITH SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES ALREADY BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, ANY
PATCHY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL RESULT IN BLACK ICE, MAKING ROADS
SLICK AND IMPACTING MORNING COMMUTES. MOST MODELS HAVE THIS FOG
DISSIPATING BY 10AM. PLAN ON NEEDING A BIT MORE TIME FOR YOUR
COMMUTE THIS MORNING.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: A LOW LOCATED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE CANADIAN COAST AND OUT
INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN, BUT WILL BARELY BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH TOTALS
ESPECIALLY LIGHT OVER THE LOWLANDS. LOOKING AT 48 HOUR
PRECIPITATION TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY, THE NBM SHOWS A 40-90% CHANCE
OF 0.10 INCHES, WITH THE LOWEST PROBABILITIES OVER THE LOWLANDS
AND THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. FOR SNOWFALL
TOTALS, STEVENS PASS HAS A 70-80% CHANCE (UP FROM A A 40-50%
CHANCE) OF SEEING 2 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW, AND LOOKOUT PASS HAS A
40-50% CHANCE OF SEEING 4 INCHES OR MORE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WINTRY TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG MOUNTAIN PASSES, BUT OVERALL
IMPACTS ARE LOOKING TO BE MINOR. SNOW LEVELS HAVE INCREASED SINCE
YESTERDAY, AND THE NBM HAS BELOW A 10% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
TYPE TO BE SNOW IN THE LOWLANDS, SO EXPECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT
MOST. HOWEVER, THERE ARE STILL CHANCES FOR WINTRY TRAVEL IMPACTS
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS DUE TO ANY RAINFALL REFREEZING OVERNIGHT
RESULTING IN SLICK ROADS. BE PREPARED FOR MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE
TO SLICK ROADS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: THIS SAME LOW WILL RESTRENGTHEN OVER THE
PACIFIC, THEN BEGIN MOVING NORTHEAST AS IT WEAKENS, PASSING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO UNANIMOUSLY
SHOW ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA. LONG RANGE NBM ESTIMATES
SHOW A 30 PERCENT CHANCE AND ABOVE FOR MUCH OF EASTERN WASHINGTON
AND NORTHERN IDAHO RECEIVING 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN OVER 72 HOURS
ENDING THURSDAY. 72-HOUR MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE RIGHT AROUND 6-
10 INCHES. SNOW LEVELS ARE STILL LOOKING TO LOWER AS COOLER AIR
MOVES IN, FAVORING MORE LOWLAND SNOW. THE SPOKANE/COEUR D'ALENE AREA
DOWN TO PULLMAN HAS A 30-40% CHANCE OF SEEING AN INCH OF SNOW
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE CPC'S 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS CONTINUE TO
FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
BOTTOM LINE: BE PREPARED FOR AN UNSETTLED WET WEATHER PATTERN NEXT
WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF POTENTIAL WINTRY TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
/AS
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE SHOW HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE INLAND NORTHWEST WITH FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND
NEAR WATER BODIES OF NORTH IDAHO. FOG HAS SHRUNK IN COVERAGE
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY AND THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH CLOUDS
MAY LIMIT OVERALL EXPANSION THIS MORNING. FOG HAS EXPANDED INTO
KCOE BUT THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IF IT WILL SPREAD INTO
KSFF/KLWS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, KEPT THE MENTION IN THE
TAFS, BUT DELAYED THE ONSET BY 1-2 HOURS. OTHERWISE, WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BY THE LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR TERMINALS NEAR WATER BODIES WHICH
COULD SEE SHALLOW FOG AND INTERMITTENT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 44 31 42 34 43 33 / 0 0 0 40 20 30
COEUR D'ALENE 44 31 43 34 42 33 / 0 0 10 60 50 40
PULLMAN 45 31 44 36 44 35 / 0 0 0 50 50 70
LEWISTON 49 34 49 39 49 38 / 0 0 0 30 30 60
COLVILLE 43 28 41 31 42 28 / 0 0 10 60 40 20
SANDPOINT 41 30 41 34 39 30 / 0 0 20 80 80 40
KELLOGG 45 33 43 36 40 35 / 0 0 10 80 80 60
MOSES LAKE 45 29 43 31 46 33 / 0 0 0 10 10 20
WENATCHEE 45 33 43 32 43 32 / 0 0 10 10 10 10
OMAK 44 33 42 33 45 28 / 0 0 0 20 10 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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