445
FXUS66 KOTX 271727
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
927 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY.
- PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON THE CASCADE PASSES AND AT
TIMES OVER NORTH IDAHO TODAY.
- DRIER AND WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY AND WINDS GUSTING FROM THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST BY THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
CASCADES WILL BRING WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO STEVENS PASS
FRIDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ACTIVE WEATHER BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND BREEZY WINDS.
DISCUSSION
TODAY AND TONIGHT: AN ACTIVE POLAR JET IS LOCATED ACROSS
WESTERN CANADA WITH A JET STREAK OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA (BC). A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO NORTHERN BC AND
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE PROVIDENCE INTO ALBERTA
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL REINFORCE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE BC/ALBERTA
BORDER AND CREATE A MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BREEZY
THROUGH THE DAY AND HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE FELT DOWN INTO THE
VALLEYS BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL MIXING
COMMENCES AND DRAWS DOWN STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT. THE LACK OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY OR FRONT WILL LIMIT
THE AMOUNT OF WINDS FROM ABOVE THAT WILL MIX DOWN THOUGH.
MODELS INDICATE WINDS AT 850 MBS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE, AND
THAT IS AROUND WHAT CAN BE EXPECTED FOR PEAK GUSTS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EXPOSED AREAS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN.
MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY WILL ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CASCADES
RESULTING IN HIGHER GUSTS ALONG RIDGES. IT'S NOT A FAVORABLE SET
UP FOR BREAKING MOUNTAIN WAVES, SO NOT EXPECTING STRONG GUSTS
THAT WOULD BE A CONCERN TO CAUSE DAMAGE ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
MOUNTAIN RANGE. HIGHER BENCHES AROUND CHELAN/ENTIAT, WENATCHEE
AND ALSO ON THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU MAY SEE GUSTS APPROACHING
40-45 MPH THOUGH WITH THE MOUNTAIN WAVE IN PLACE. WINDS WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED
WITH P-WATS UP AROUND 0.40 INCHES AND ONLY 120-140% OF NORMAL
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF OROGRAPHICS AND SOME ENHANCEMENT WITH
THE PASSING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TODAY WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO
THE MOUNTAINS. STEVENS PASS WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING
WITH SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE DIURNAL HEATING MELTS THE SNOW
FOR LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED
IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE TODAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMES SPLIT AROUND
THE NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE POLAR
JET SHIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION AND THE SUB-TROPICAL
JET STAYS SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, OREGON AND SOUTHERN
IDAHO. THIS WILL MEAN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON
AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE OVER THIS PERIOD. MOISTURE HIGHER UP IN
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CREEP NORTHWARD ACROSS OREGON INTO SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON FOR THE WEEKEND WITH PARTLY CLOUD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND THEN DECREASING FURTHER CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN BORDER
WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. THESE CLOUDS DECREASE HEADING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL AND PEAK WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LEWISTON WILL HAVE A 70% CHANCE OF
REACHING 60 DEGREES ON TUESDAY! A FAR CRY FROM THE DUSTING OF
SNOW SEEN JUST A FEW DAYS BACK.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: THE MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE PUSHING
TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH OF
THIS TROUGH WITH AROUND 55% OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATING
A FAIRLY ROBUST TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS. THEN THE OTHER 40% OR SO
OF THE MEMBERS INDICATING A WEAKER TROUGH. A STRONGER SOLUTION
WOULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
AND WIND. EVEN THE STRONGEST MEMBERS DON'T SHOW VERY STRONG
WINDS THOUGH. MORE SO JUST A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WOULD START OUT HIGH WITH
SNOW MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS ABOVE 4,500-5,000 FEET TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS DO DROP ON WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW OVER STEVENS PASS AND LOOKOUT PASS FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE TRANSITION WOULD START EARLIER FOR STEVENS PASS
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LATER AT LOOKOUT PASS AROUND WEDNESDAY
EVENING. STEVENS PASS WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR 4-7 INCHES AND
LOOKOUT PASS 2-4 INCHES. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE INTERESTING
AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE THE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING IN AND THIS MAY RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW AT 5-10% CHANCE WITH THESE
CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON INTO THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL
IDAHO PANHANDLE.
MODELS SHOW MORE UNCERTAINTY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO LOOK ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE, BUT HOW
PROGRESSIVE IS A MATTER OF QUESTION. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS
THAT WE WILL SEE A 12-36 HOUR BREAK BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS. TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO COOL BACK DOWN CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. /SVH
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MID-HIGH CLOUDS. A
MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DIURNAL MIXING WILL ALSO RESULT IN
GUSTY WINDS THAT PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES AND
ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: INCREASING HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD (FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY). MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY MAY RESULT
IN BRIEF STRONGER GUSTS OF GREATER THAN 30-35 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND A 10-20% CHANCE OF OCCURRING AT KEAT/KMWH/KGEG/KPUW
AIRPORT TERMINALS. /SVH
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 50 29 47 28 51 29 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 49 29 49 28 51 29 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 51 31 49 31 51 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 59 34 53 36 54 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 55 27 48 25 50 27 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 46 29 45 27 49 29 / 20 10 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 48 30 47 30 50 31 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 58 30 52 30 54 31 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 58 32 49 33 51 34 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 56 31 49 30 51 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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