473
FXUS66 KOTX 281717
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
917 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIER AND WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWLAND RAIN RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY TREND WARMER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH
MOUNTAIN SNOW, LOWLAND RAIN, AND BREEZY WINDS. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO BRING WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY: A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST. FOR THIS WEEKEND, THE REGION WILL
BE UNDER A SPLIT-FLOW REGIME WITH THE POLAR JET TO THE NORTH
AND A SUBTROPICAL JET SITUATED OVER OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA, KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS AN OFFSHORE TROUGH APPROACHES THE
CALIFORNIA/OREGON COAST AND SPREAD MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF EASTERN WASHINGTON AND
THE IDAHO PANHANDLE, BUT THERE COULD BE STRAY SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS THE BLUES AND CAMAS PRAIRIE.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
THE TROUGH DIGS MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN IDAHO/NEVADA/UTAH. THIS
WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK TUESDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS
IN THE 50S. THE WARMEST SPOTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
ALONG THE SNAKE RIVER AND IN THE L-C VALLEY WHERE THERE IS A
70+% CHANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 60 OR GREATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: A BREAK IN THE QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT
ON THE PRESENCE OF THIS TROUGH, WITH THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN
THE EXACT STRENGTH AND THE RESULTING PRECIPITATION TOTALS AND
WIND MAGNITUDE. A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR OROGRAPHIC
PRECIPITATION, WITH THE 10TH-90TH PERCENTILE QPF RANGE FOR THE
MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.5 INCHES. A PRONOUNCED RAIN SHADOW
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE LEE OF THE
CASCADES, WHERE TOTALS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 0.10 INCHES. FOR
THE RISING TERRAIN OF FAR EASTERN WASHINGTON, TOTALS MAY RANGE
BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.50 INCHES.
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS INITIALLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE PASS LEVEL, FAVORING RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT PASS
LEVELS BEFORE LOWERING WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE CASCADES AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. PROBABILISTIC SNOW
TOTALS FOR THE PASSES REMAIN WIDE DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF
POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WITH CURRENT RANGES (10TH-90TH
PERCENTILE) BETWEEN 1 TO 9 INCHES FOR STEVENS PASS AND 1 TO 5
INCHES FOR LOOKOUT PASS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF WINTER
TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVER THE PASSES.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD POOL
ALOFT (500MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -29°C) MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND STEEPENS LAPSE RATES. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THE
ATMOSPHERE COULD DESTABILIZE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CHARGE SEPARATION
WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL (EL) TEMPERATURES BELOW -20C AND SOME
CAPE BETWEEN -10C AND -20C. THIS ENVIRONMENT FAVORS SPRING-
LIKE, GRAUPEL SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE LIGHTNING
POTENTIAL WITH A 5-10% CHANCE FOR SPOKANE COUNTY TO THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE AND AREAS SOUTH.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE INTO THE PNW ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF AN OFFSHORE RIDGE INTO THURSDAY, WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS RESULTING IN PERIODS OF WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS OVER
THE PASSES. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TOWARD THE WEEKEND ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE OFFSHORE RIDGE TO NOSE INTO THE PNW, BRINGING
DRIER CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THOUGH THERE COULD
BE SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. INTO THE WEEKEND, ABOUT 60%
OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR A STRONGER RIDGE, WHICH WOULD DEFLECT
THE SUBSEQUENT TROUGH NORTHWARD AND RESULT IN A MILDER, DRIER
OUTCOME. THE REMAINING 40% SUGGEST A WEAKER RIDGE, ALLOWING THE
TROUGH TO DIG FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE REGION WITH INCREASED
PRECIPITATION, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND STRONGER WINDS. /VMT
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING IN FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT, FOLLOWING DIURNAL DIRECTIONS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR VFR CONDITIONS.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 50 29 51 31 52 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 48 29 51 30 52 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 51 33 52 33 51 34 / 0 0 10 10 10 0
LEWISTON 55 37 55 38 56 36 / 0 0 10 10 10 0
COLVILLE 50 27 51 28 52 30 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 46 28 48 29 48 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 49 31 52 33 50 33 / 0 0 0 0 10 0
MOSES LAKE 54 30 54 30 55 34 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 54 33 52 35 56 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 52 30 51 33 52 35 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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