487
FXUS66 KOTX 282156
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
156 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIER AND WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWLAND RAIN RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY TREND WARMER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH
MOUNTAIN SNOW, LOWLAND RAIN, AND BREEZY WINDS. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO BRING WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT - MONDAY: IT WILL BE A QUIET START TO THE WEATHER PATTERN
HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH FOR THE INLAND NW COURTESY
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COMBINATION OF
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MAINLY CIRRUS OR HIGH CLOUDS
COMING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STORM SYSTEM PASSING
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH NORTHERN CA AND GREAT BASIN.
NIGHTS WILL BE COOL WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE 20S-30S
THEN REBOUNDING INTO THE 40S-50S EACH AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY - FRIDAY: AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN
RETURNS TO THE PACNW AS A SERIES OF PACIFIC TROUGHS TRAVERSE
THE REGION. THE FIRST WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY DELIVERING LIGHT
MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR WET SNOW
WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS. A DEEPER SYSTEM ARRIVES ON ITS HEELS EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER AIR AND DEEPER MOISTURE. SNOW WILL BECOME
MORE COMMON FOR THE MOUNTAIN PASSES WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
AMOUNTS AND MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
AWAY FROM THE CASCADE RAIN SHADOW, LOWLANDS CAN EXPECT A 60-90%
CHANCE FOR RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES, RAIN
CHANCES ARE CLOSER TO 30-50%. PRECIPITATION WILL TREND MORE
CONVECTIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF 500MB
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -28C AND -30C. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SIGNS
OF SURFACE CAPE RANGING ANYWHERE FROM 50-300 J/KG. WOULD NOT
RULE OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES BUT PROBABILITIES FOR LIGHTNING
AT THIS TIME REMAIN BELOW 15%. A THIRD TROUGH ARRIVING ON
THURSDAY WILL USHER AN ADDITIONAL PUSH OF COOLER AIR WITH
CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW/GRAUPEL FOR THE LOWLANDS. WINDS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY
BECOME BREEZY THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH THE EXCHANGE OF AIR MASSES. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ANOMALOUS PRESSURE GRADIENTS OR GUSTS ON THE ENSEMBLES
WHICH IS INDICATIVE FOR MORE TYPICAL GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH
RANGE.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: A TRANSITION BACK TO UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN PAC AND
STRENGTHENING POLAR JET COMING ACROSS THE GULF OF AK AND INTO
WESTERN CANADA. THE PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED JUST
THIS PAST WEEK WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK CROSSING THROUGH NORTH-
CENTRAL BC/ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. THIS EQUATES TO A DRY FORECAST
IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES AND INTO E WA AND SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THE PATTERN IS ALSO CONDUCIVE TO BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE INLAND NW. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY COMES
WITH THE EXACT TRACK AND DEPTH OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TO OUR NORTH AND HOW THIS EQUATES TO PRESSURE GRADIENTS
(WINDS) ACROSS EASTERN WA/NORTH IDAHO. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING
30-50% CHANCES FOR WIND GUSTS OF 30 MPH ON THE DAY 7 FORECAST
FURTHER SUPPORTING THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE FOR A BREEZY PERIOD
BUT WHEN EXAMINING THE GEFS/ENS MEMBERS PRESSURE GRADIENTS FROM
PORTLAND TO KALISPEL, THERE IS NEARLY A 20 MB SPREAD WITH
GEFS/ENS MEANS RESIDING AROUND +10-12 MB OR WEST/SOUTHWEST
WINDS. ROUGHLY 10% OF THE MEMBERS INDICATE A NEGATIVE GRADIENT
SUPPORTING THE RIDGE FURTHER OFFSHORE AND COOLER AIR DRIVING
DOWN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUGGESTING REVERSE OR NORTHEAST/EAST
FLOW. THIS HAS VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FROM THE 100 MEMBER ENSEMBLE
THOUGH STILL IN THE REALM OF OUTCOMES. /SB
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING IN FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT, FOLLOWING DIURNAL DIRECTIONS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR VFR CONDITIONS.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 29 51 31 53 34 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
COEUR D'ALENE 30 51 29 52 33 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 20
PULLMAN 33 52 35 52 34 53 / 0 0 10 10 0 10
LEWISTON 37 55 39 57 37 59 / 0 0 10 10 0 10
COLVILLE 27 51 28 52 31 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 20
SANDPOINT 28 48 30 49 33 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 20
KELLOGG 31 51 32 51 34 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 20
MOSES LAKE 30 55 31 56 34 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
WENATCHEE 34 52 36 57 37 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 20
OMAK 31 50 33 52 35 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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