485
FXUS66 KOTX 010807
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1207 AM PST SUN MAR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIER AND WARMER THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
- MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWLAND RAIN RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY TREND WARMER THROUGH TUESDAY.
ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH
MOUNTAIN SNOW, LOWLAND RAIN, AND BREEZY WINDS. THIS WILL BRING
PERIODS OF WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES.
DISCUSSION
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY: QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AS THE INLAND
NORTHWEST REMAINS UNDER A SPLIT-FLOW REGIME AND SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND A CLOSED LOW OFFSHORE OF OREGON
AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING PASSING HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE
INLAND NORTHWEST AS IT PROGRESSES INLAND THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER,
THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF WASHINGTON AND NORTH
IDAHO, KEEPING THE REGION PRECIPITATION-FREE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE LOW DIGS INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT LARGE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE SWINGS WITH COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS AND WARM AFTERNOON
HIGHS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK TUESDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE 50S. THE WARMEST SPOTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
ALONG THE SNAKE RIVER AND IN THE L-C VALLEY, WHERE THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING 60 OR GREATER ON
TUESDAY.
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY: ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS LATER IN THE
DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVES
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE WA COAST
ON TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A DEEPER, STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PRESENCE OF
THIS TROUGH, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING ITS EXACT TIMING
AND STRENGTH. A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR OROGRAPHIC
PRECIPITATION. THE 72 HOUR 10TH-90TH PERCENTILE QPF FROM 5 AM
TUESDAY TO 5 AM FRIDAY RANGES BETWEEN 0.50 AND 2.50 INCHES IN THE
MOUNTAINS. A PRONOUNCED RAIN SHADOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE COLUMBIA
BASIN AND THE LEE OF THE CASCADES, WHERE TOTALS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW 0.10 INCHES. FOR FAR EASTERN WASHINGTON, TOTALS MAY RANGE
BETWEEN A FEW TENTHS AND 0.50 INCHES.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE PASS LEVEL, MEANING PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN
AS LIGHT RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE MOUNTAIN PASSES WITH THE
WEAK FRONT ON TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL THEN LOWER TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE CASCADES AND WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. THERE IS
A WIDE SPREAD IN THE PROBABILISTIC SNOW TOTALS FOR THE PASSES FROM 5
AM TUESDAY THROUGH 5 AM FRIDAY AS PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE
CONVECTIVE ON WEDNESDAY. CURRENT 10TH-90TH PERCENTILE RANGES ARE
BETWEEN 1 AND 10 INCHES FOR STEVENS PASS AND 1 TO 5 INCHES FOR
LOOKOUT PASS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF WINTER TRAVEL
CONDITIONS OVER THE PASSES.
INSTABILITY INCREASES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT
(500 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -29C) MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
STEEPENS LAPSE RATES. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR SPRING-LIKE
GRAUPEL SHOWERS IN THE LOWLANDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
STRONGER SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED LIGHTNING, WITH A 10-15%
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL WAVES SLIDE
INTO THE PNW ON THE LEADING EDGE OF AN OFFSHORE RIDGE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS RESULTING IN PERIODS OF WINTER
DRIVING CONDITIONS OVER THE PASSES.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: MODELS SUGGEST THE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, THOUGH A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC SETUP OF THE OFFSHORE RIDGE, A DIGGING
TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL US, AND A COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC SOMETIME SUNDAY. A STRONG
OFFSHORE RIDGE WOULD DEFLECT THE APPROACHING SYSTEM NORTHWARD AND
RESULT IN A MILDER, DRIER OUTCOME. A WEAKER OFFSHORE RIDGE WOULD
ALLOW THE TROUGH TO DIG FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE REGION, RESULTING IN
INCREASED PRECIPITATION, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND STRONGER WINDS.
/VMT
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AND THE LOWER IDAHO PANHANDLE, OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR VFR CONDITIONS.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 51 30 53 34 52 41 / 0 0 0 0 10 60
COEUR D'ALENE 52 31 52 33 51 40 / 0 0 0 0 10 70
PULLMAN 52 35 51 34 53 41 / 0 0 0 0 10 70
LEWISTON 56 39 57 37 59 45 / 0 10 0 0 0 50
COLVILLE 51 29 53 31 49 38 / 0 0 0 0 10 50
SANDPOINT 48 30 49 32 47 39 / 0 0 0 0 20 80
KELLOGG 51 33 51 34 49 41 / 0 0 0 0 20 80
MOSES LAKE 55 30 56 34 57 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 20
WENATCHEE 52 36 56 37 54 40 / 0 0 0 0 10 40
OMAK 52 33 53 35 50 39 / 0 0 0 0 10 30
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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