086
FXUS66 KOTX 020514
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
914 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND MILD THROUGH TUESDAY.
- MOUNTAIN SNOW, LOWLAND RAIN, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
- LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH TUESDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER
RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW,
LOWLAND RAIN, AND BREEZY WINDS. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF
WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT - TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
WILL DELIVER LIGHT WINDS, MILD TEMPERATURES, AND AN ABUNDANCE
OF SUNSHINE. NIGHTS WILL BE COOL BUT THE DRY AIR WILL ALLOW
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE 40S-50S. A WEAK
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING OVER
CENTRAL WA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH ACROSS THE OPEN WHEAT
COUNTRY, OKANOGAN VALLEY, AND PALOUSE. THE INCREASED MIXING
WILL YIELD THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID 50S. AREAS OF THE LOWER BASIN AND ALONG THE
SNAKE/CLEARWATER RIVER VALLEYS WILL LIKELY REACH 60F OR WARMER
(60-80% CHANCE).
TUESDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY: THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A SERIES OF
PACIFIC TROUGHS TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING INCREASING
MOUNTAIN SNOW, LOWLAND RAIN, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST TROUGH MOUNTAINS WILL START OFF AS RAIN
THEN THERE IS A 80% CHANCE FOR RAIN TO SWITCH TO SNOW FOR
STEVENS PASS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE COOLER AIR WILL BE SLOWER
TO REACH LOOKOUT PASS WITH THE TRANSITION OCCURRING AFTER
SUNSET WEDNESDAY EVENING. ONCE SNOW BEGINS, SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON AND OFF AT THESE PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. OVER THE 48 HOUR PERIOD, 50% OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
RESIDE WITHIN THE 6-11 INCH RANGE FOR STEVENS PASS WITH THE 90TH
PERCENTILE AT 14 INCHES. AT LOOKOUT PASS, 50% OF THE MEMBERS
FALL WITHIN 3-5 INCHES WITH THE 90TH PERCENTILE AT 7 INCHES. IT
GOES WITHOUT SAYING, MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WINTER
TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
IN THE LOWLANDS, THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL SET
UP OVER THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AND THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN WA. 48
HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS (TUE NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT) ARE ON THE
ORDER OF 0.20-0.50 INCHES WITH LOCAL POCKETS JUST SHY OF 0.65
INCHES. THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH WESTERLY FLOW TO DELIVER MUCH
RAINFALL IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES, WESTERN BASIN, AND OKANOGAN
COUNTRY WHERE PROJECTED QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH. CONSEQUENTLY, LOUP LOUP AND SHERMAN WILL RECEIVE
LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THERE REMAINS A 8-15% CHANCE
FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AND EASTERN
THIRD OF WA. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES SHOW UP BETWEEN 4-10PM
IS NOT REAL FAVORABLE FOR LIGHTNING THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT
SOMETHING WE WILL BE MONITORING. THESE LOW PROBABILITIES SEEM ON
TRACK GIVEN THE POSITIVE TILT TO THE INCOMING TROUGH (NEGATIVE
TILT WOULD BE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE). STEADY RAINFALL FOR THE
LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAINS WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHTER SHOWERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND BY FRIDAY ONLY LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE.
BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH AND GUSTS 25-35 MPH. LOCALLY
STRONGER WIND GUSTS (35-45 MPH) WILL IMPACT THE EXPOSED
RIDGETOPS OF THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: NO WHOLESALE CHANGES WITH THE PROJECTED MIDLEVEL
PATTERN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND FEATURING AN RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDING INLAND FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND COOLER
TROUGH COMING ACROSS THE GULF OF AK AND INTO WESTERN CANADA. A
STRENGTHENING POLAR JET WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE FEATURES AND
EXACTLY WHERE THIS SETS UP, DOES COME WITH MODERATE TO HIGH
UNCERTAINTY. ROUGHLY 25% OF THE 100 MEMBER ENSEMBLE PLACE THE
JET NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, 60% ON THE BORDER, AND
15% SOUTH OF THE BORDER NEAR THE OR/WA STATELINE. EACH SCENARIO
PRESENTS AN OUTCOME OF GUSTY WINDS (AT LEAST 25-35 MPH);
OUTCOMES WITH THE JET ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS (35-50 MPH).
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED. /SB
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
AND THE LOWER IDAHO PANHANDLE, OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR VFR CONDITIONS.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 30 53 34 54 41 49 / 0 0 0 0 70 90
COEUR D'ALENE 28 52 32 52 41 47 / 0 0 0 10 80 100
PULLMAN 28 50 34 54 41 47 / 0 0 0 0 80 100
LEWISTON 36 56 36 58 44 52 / 0 0 0 0 70 100
COLVILLE 27 54 31 49 38 48 / 0 0 0 10 60 90
SANDPOINT 26 49 32 47 39 44 / 0 0 0 20 90 100
KELLOGG 33 52 33 51 41 43 / 0 0 0 10 90 100
MOSES LAKE 28 56 34 57 40 56 / 0 0 0 0 30 40
WENATCHEE 33 56 36 53 39 52 / 0 0 0 10 40 50
OMAK 30 54 35 51 39 52 / 0 0 0 0 30 40
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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