107
FXUS66 KOTX 020900
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
100 AM PST MON MAR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND MILD THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
- MOUNTAIN SNOW, LOWLAND RAIN, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
- MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS DURING THE SATURDAY
NIGHT TO MONDAY PERIOD.
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH TUESDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER
RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW, LOWLAND
RAIN, AND BREEZY WINDS. MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF WINTER TRAVEL
CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE INLAND NORTHWEST REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE EARLY
MONDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TRAVERSES OREGON, NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO, NEVADA,
AND EVENTUALLY INTO UTAH LATER ON MONDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE INLAND NORTHWEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
TREND OF BEAUTIFUL AFTERNOONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK
IN THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS OF THE INLAND NORTHWEST, WITH THE
EXCEPTION IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND L-C
VALLEY WHICH HAS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE
INLAND NORTHWEST WITH SEVERAL WEATHER SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. THE FIRST WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PNW COAST. SNOW LEVELS INITIALLY START
ABOVE PASS LEVEL WITH LIGHT RAIN FOR THE CASCADES AND LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS FAR EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO.
PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE PNW COAST AND MOVES INLAND ON WEDNESDAY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE TROUGH MOVES
INLAND, WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AT STEVENS PASS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND AT LOOKOUT PASS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL BECOME
MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. DUE
TO THE SHOWERY NATURE, THERE IS A WIDE RANGE OF SNOWFALL TOTALS
FOR THE PASSES. 72 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTALS AMONG ENSEMBLES
GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 INCHES FOR STEVENS PASS WITH
THE 90TH PERCENTILE AT 15 INCHES. FOR LOOKOUT PASS, ENSEMBLES
FALL BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES WITH THE 90TH PERCENTILE AT 8
INCHES. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVER THE
PASSES.
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH OREGON AND SOUTHERN
IDAHO WITH THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE INW ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL IDAHO
PANHANDLE. RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 0.25 TO 0.60 INCHES IN THESE
AREAS MAY BRING SOME RISES ON SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS ACROSS
THE PALOUSE, BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A PROMINENT RAIN SHADOW IN THE LEE
OF THE CASCADES, OKANOGAN VALLEY, AND WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN
WITH LESS THAN A TENTH EXPECTED.
INSTABILITY INCREASES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD POOL ALOFT
(500 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -29°C) MOVES INTO THE INLAND
NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE SHOWING MUCAPE OF 50-300 J/KG WITH
STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON AND
THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR SCATTERED
GRAUPEL SHOWERS IN THE LOWLANDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
(LESS THAN 15% CHANCE); WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS BELOW -20C, SUB-FREEZING LCL/LFC TEMPERATURES (0 TO -5C)
MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL CHARGE SEPARATION NECESSARY FOR LIGHTNING
DEVELOPMENT.
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY IMPACTFUL DURING THIS
PERIOD, BUT AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE
COMMON IN THE AFTERNOONS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THIS WILL BE THE NEXT PERIOD TO
MONITOR FOR IMPACTFUL WEATHER WITH THE ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST
INDEX BEGINNING TO HIGHLIGHT THE SUNDAY PERIOD FOR ANOMALOUS
WINDS. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BUT MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE IDEA OF A BROAD UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE WITH A STRENGTHENING POLAR JET OVERTOP. THE
PLACEMENT OF THE JET AXIS WILL DEPEND ON STRENGTH OF THIS
OFFSHORE RIDGE AND THE PROGRESSION OF DEEPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. MODELS THEN SUGGEST A STRONGER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. RIGHT NOW THE NBM IS GIVING A
30-70% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 45 MPH ON SUNDAY. /VMT
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: PASSING MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS, WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. IMPULSE SLIDING
SOUTH OF THE AREA MAY LEAD TO A FEW MORE LOWER CLOUDS OVER
LOWER ID/SOUTHEAST WA EARLY, BUT STILL ABOVE 5KFT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR VFR CONDITIONS.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 54 33 54 41 49 33 / 0 0 0 70 90 50
COEUR D'ALENE 52 32 53 41 47 35 / 0 0 10 80 100 70
PULLMAN 51 34 54 41 47 35 / 0 0 0 80 100 80
LEWISTON 57 36 58 44 51 38 / 0 0 0 70 100 70
COLVILLE 53 30 50 38 49 30 / 0 0 10 60 90 30
SANDPOINT 49 32 48 39 44 35 / 0 0 10 90 100 80
KELLOGG 51 33 52 41 45 37 / 0 0 10 90 100 90
MOSES LAKE 56 33 56 40 56 35 / 0 0 0 20 50 10
WENATCHEE 56 36 53 39 53 38 / 0 0 10 40 60 10
OMAK 54 35 51 38 53 35 / 0 0 0 30 40 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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