866
FXUS66 KOTX 022155
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
155 PM PST MON MAR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND MILD THROUGH TUESDAY.
- MOUNTAIN SNOW, LOWLAND RAIN, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
- MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS SUNDAY INTO THE
MONDAY PERIOD.
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH TUESDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER
RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW, LOWLAND
RAIN, AND BREEZY WINDS. MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF WINTER TRAVEL
CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES.
DISCUSSION
MONDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY: DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
INW FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS COURTESY OF A FLAT UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE. THE STREAK OF DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF PACIFIC TROUGHS PASS THROUGH
THE REGION DELIVERING MOUNTAIN SNOW, LOWLAND RAIN, AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST TROUGH WHICH IS
CURRENTLY BETWEEN 130-140W. MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL START OFF AS
RAIN THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR.
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT COOLING AS QUICKLY FOR STEVENS PASS AS
INDICATED YESTERDAY SUGGESTING A 60% CHANCE FOR SNOW/40% CHANCE
FOR RAIN UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF THIS FALLS AS SNOW, IT
IS LIKELY TO BE WET WITH TEMPERATURES OF 32-34F. THE COOLER AIR
WILL BE SLOWER TO REACH LOOKOUT PASS WITH THE TRANSITION
OCCURRING AFTER SUNSET WEDNESDAY EVENING. ONCE SNOW BEGINS, SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON AND OFF AT THESE PASSES
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. OVER THE 48 HOUR PERIOD, 50% OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS RESIDE WITHIN THE 3-8 INCH RANGE FOR STEVENS
PASS (DOWN 2-3 INCHES) WITH THE 90TH PERCENTILE AT 10 INCHES
(DOWN 4 INCHES). AT LOOKOUT PASS, 50% OF THE MEMBERS FALL WITHIN
2-5 INCHES WITH THE 90TH PERCENTILE AT 7 INCHES (NO CHANGE). IT
GOES WITHOUT SAYING, MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR PERIODS
OF WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS WHEN THE SUN IS AT LOWER ANGLES AND
OVERNIGHT.
FOR THE LOWLANDS, THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL SET
UP OVER THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AND THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN WA. 48
HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS (TUE NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT) ARE ON THE
ORDER OF 0.30-0.60 INCHES WITH LOCAL POCKETS JUST SHY OF 0.75
INCHES. WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A PRONOUNCED RAIN SHADOW IN
THE LEE OF THE CASCADES, WESTERN BASIN, AND OKANOGAN COUNTRY
WHERE PROJECTED QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH
AND VERY LITTLE SNOW FOR LOUP LOUP AND SHERMAN PASSES.
THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY WILL COME WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES OF
-28C OR COLDER. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING LAPSE RATES AND
SMALL AMOUNTS OF CAPE. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OF RAIN, SNOW, AND
GRAUPEL WILL DEVELOP WEST AND NORTH OF THE HEAVIER BAND OF RAIN
OVER SE WA AND NC IDAHO. THIS ALSO COMES WITH A SMALL, 8-15%
CHANCE, FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AND
EASTERN THIRD OF WA. STEADY RAINFALL FOR THE LOWLANDS AND
MOUNTAINS WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHTER SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND BY FRIDAY ONLY LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE.
BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH. LOCALLY
STRONGER WIND GUSTS (35-45 MPH) WILL IMPACT THE EXPOSED
RIDGETOPS OF THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS.
NOT SEEING PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS > 30 MPH GREATER THAN 15%
ELSEWHERE WHICH LEADS TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE FOR THE FORECASTED
SPEEDS.
SATURDAY-MONDAY: THE REGION WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING INLAND
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE SPILLING
OVER THE RIDGE COMBINED WITH WEAKER IMPULSES TO KEEP A MENTION
OF LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES AND IDAHO
PANHANDLE. A COOLER SYSTEM WILL PRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THE RIDGE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE RETROGRADING INTO THE E PAC
AND ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FLOOD INTO THE INW. THERE ARE STILL
SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN WITH THE
VARIANCE LARGELY DRIVEN BY WHETHER THE RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE
SOONER AND THE SYSTEM WILL COME IN WITH MORE OF A WESTERLY JET
OR WILL THE RIDGE PUT UP A STRONGER BATTLE AND THE SYSTEM COMES
IN WITH A NORTHWESTERLY JET. ALL SOLUTIONS ARE BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY BUT RESULT IN LARGE SPREAD WHETHER THE WINDIER DAY WILL
BE SUNDAY OR MONDAY (ENSEMBLES ARE TRENDING TOWARD MONDAY). THE
DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE WHETHER SNOW SHOWERS
IMPACT THE PALOUSE/CAMAS PRAIRIE (TEND TO RECEIVE SNOW SHOWERS
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW). /SB
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN LIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SPEEDS 6-9KTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 10Z. ONSHORE FLOW IS INCREASING WHICH
WILL LEAD TO RISING DEWPOINTS AND MARINE AIR BANKED OVER THE
WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. PARTIAL MTN OBSCRNS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE CASCADE CREST 12-18Z TUE. HREF HAS A 20% FOR
SCATTERED LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP VCNTY OF KGEG-KDEW 16-18Z
THOUGH THIS COMES WITH LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE LOW DEWPOINTS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE. /SB
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 32 56 41 49 32 49 / 0 0 50 90 60 10
COEUR D'ALENE 32 54 41 47 34 46 / 0 10 70 100 80 50
PULLMAN 34 56 41 46 35 45 / 0 0 70 100 80 60
LEWISTON 36 61 45 50 38 52 / 0 0 50 100 70 40
COLVILLE 30 52 38 48 30 50 / 0 10 50 90 40 20
SANDPOINT 32 49 40 44 35 44 / 0 10 90 100 80 70
KELLOGG 33 53 41 44 37 42 / 0 10 80 100 90 90
MOSES LAKE 32 58 41 56 33 55 / 0 0 20 40 10 0
WENATCHEE 36 55 41 54 37 52 / 0 10 30 50 10 10
OMAK 35 53 39 52 34 53 / 0 10 20 40 10 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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