863
FXUS66 KOTX 031741
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
941 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND MILD THROUGH TUESDAY.
- MOUNTAIN SNOW, LOWLAND RAIN, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
- MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW AND STRONG
WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH TUESDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER
RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW,
LOWLAND RAIN, AND BREEZY WINDS. MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF
WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES. A STRONGER
SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BRING A RISK OF STRONG WEST
WINDS.
DISCUSSION
TUESDAY: TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE PNW HEADS INTO A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL START THE DAY WITH
ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON EXPECTED. CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A WEAKENING FRONT
APPROACHES THE PNW COAST. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER,
STRONGER MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND L-C VALLEY WHERE THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S.
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE CASCADES
AND LATE TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS FAR EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH
IDAHO. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH INITIALLY WITH PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING AS RAIN AT THE MOUNTAIN PASSES. PRECIPITATION BECOMES
MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A DEEPER TROUGH MOVES
INLAND. THE TIMING OF THIS HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE
TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN AT THE MOUNTAIN PASSES DELAYED FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. EXPECT THE TRANSITION TO OCCUR EARLY
WEDNESDAY AT STEVENS PASS AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT LOOKOUT PASS.
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE CASCADES AND WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE. SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE SLIGHTLY DECREASED WITH 72 HOUR
SNOWFALL TOTALS AMONG ENSEMBLES GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 4 AND
7 INCHES FOR STEVENS PASS WITH THE 90TH PERCENTILE AT 9 INCHES.
FOR LOOKOUT PASS, ENSEMBLES FALL BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES WITH THE
90TH PERCENTILE AT 4 INCHES.
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH OREGON AND SOUTHERN
IDAHO WITH THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE INW ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL IDAHO
PANHANDLE. RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 0.25 TO 0.60 INCHES IN THESE
AREAS MAY BRING SOME RISES ON SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS ACROSS
THE PALOUSE, BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A PROMINENT RAIN SHADOW IN THE LEE
OF THE CASCADES, OKANOGAN VALLEY, AND WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN
WITH LESS THAN A TENTH EXPECTED.
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS 500MB
TEMPERATURES DECREASE TO AROUND -28C WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT.
THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR CONVECTIVE GRAUPEL SHOWERS IN THE
LOWLANDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE LATER ARRIVAL OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS CAMS
SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR THE END OR AFTER SUNSET. THE LOSS
IN DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY TO PROMOTE
VERTICAL GROWTH OF CELLS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: AN OFFSHORE RIDGE NOSES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DIRECTED INTO THE REGION.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEATHER SYSTEMS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN FOR THE EARLY WEEKEND WITH A CLOSED LOW BECOMING PARKED
OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE OFFSHORE
RIDGE CONTINUE INFLUENCING THE PNW THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.
MODELS THEN SHOW A STRONGER SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND IN THE STRENGTH
OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHERN ALBERTA. A STRONGER LOW
WOULD BRING A RISK OF AN IMPACTFUL WIND EVENT AND HEAVY MOUNTAIN
SNOW IN THE CASCADES. CURRENTLY THE NBM IS GIVING A 40-70%
CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH OR GREATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. /VMT
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL AROUND 06-09Z. CURRENTLY,
HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED AND WILL START TO BECOME MORE
BKN AND OVC BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. AROUND 06-09Z, LIGHT RAIN
BEGINS AT MOST TAF SITES. AROUND 06Z, A 30% CHANCE FOR RAIN
STARTS AT COE AND PUW. MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL START THROUGHOUT
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AROUND 09Z. PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL BE RAIN FOR ALL TAF SITES. THIS WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO
MVFR FOR GEG, SFF, COE, PUW, LWS, AND MWH. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FOR GEG, SFF, AND COE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z, WHEN PRECIPITATION
STARTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING RAIN FOR
ALL TAF SITES. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING REGARDING THE START
OF RAIN AND OF MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
/AS
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CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 56 42 49 33 48 30 / 0 50 90 60 20 20
COEUR D'ALENE 54 41 46 34 46 31 / 0 70 100 80 60 30
PULLMAN 57 42 45 35 44 31 / 0 70 100 80 70 40
LEWISTON 62 45 49 39 51 35 / 0 60 100 80 50 40
COLVILLE 52 38 49 31 48 29 / 10 50 90 40 20 10
SANDPOINT 49 40 44 36 43 32 / 10 80 100 80 70 40
KELLOGG 53 41 44 36 40 33 / 0 80 100 90 90 60
MOSES LAKE 58 42 55 34 55 32 / 0 30 50 10 0 0
WENATCHEE 55 41 54 38 51 36 / 10 40 60 10 10 10
OMAK 54 40 52 33 53 33 / 0 30 50 10 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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