163
FXUS66 KOTX 040006
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
406 PM PST TUE MAR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOUNTAIN SNOW, LOWLAND RAIN, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
- MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW AND STRONG
WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
SYNOPSIS
ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH
MOUNTAIN SNOW, LOWLAND RAIN, AND BREEZY WINDS. MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING PERIODS OF WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAIN
PASSES. A STRONGER SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BRING A RISK
OF STRONG WEST WINDS.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH CLOUD DECKS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES AIM AT THE PNW COAST.
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A FRONT MOVING THROUGH WILL START IN THE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING, AND THEN SLOWLY SPREAD THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY TOMORROW. THERMAL PROFILES SHOW PRECIPITATION
STARTING AS RAIN, EVEN ALONG STEVENS AND LOOKOUT PASSES, THOUGH
MODELS ARE FAVORING A TRANSITION TO SNOW BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, STEVENS PASS HAS A 30-40% CHANCE OF SEEING
4 INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE. LOOKOUT PASS HAS A 40-50% CHANCE OF 2
INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE. WHILE WINTER HEADLINES LOOK UNLIKELY,
TRAVELERS SHOULD STILL ANTICIPATE WINTRY DRIVING CONDITIONS TOMORROW
THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE LOWLANDS WILL SEE NEARLY ALL RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH PWATS
RISING TO NEARLY 180-200% OF NORMAL BY THIS EVENING. WHILE THERE IS
A 70% CHANCE AND ABOVE FOR AREAS REGIONWIDE TO SEE AT LEAST 0.01
INCHES, PLACES THAT WILL SEE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL DUE TO THE LOW
TRACKING THROUGH OREGON WILL BE SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE. WHEN LOOKING AT PROBABILITIES FOR A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING, SPOKANE HAS A 50-60% CHANCE, THE
LEWISTON/PULLMAN AREA HAS A 80-90%, AND NEARLY ALL OF THE ID
PANHANDLE HAS A 90-100% CHANCE. WHILE RIVER FORECAST POINT
HYDROGRAPHS WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN
STREAMFLOWS, NO AREAS RIGHT NOW ARE EXPECTED TO HIT BANKFULL.
ADDITIONALLY, CAMS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH THE HREF SHOWING LAPSE RATES ABOVE
8 DEGC/KM, AND CAPE VALUES OF 100-200 J/KG. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND POSSIBLY SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWLANDS, IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF
WASHINGTON AND IN THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. NOT EXPECTING MANY
IMPACTS APART FROM SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHTNING, BUT THIS IS THE
FIRST TIME IN A COUPLE MONTHS THERE'S BEEN A CHANCE FOR SOME
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA,
THURSDAY WILL SEE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE LOWLANDS.
MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO
OROGRAPHIC LIFT. EACH AFTERNOON WILL SEE GUSTS 10-15 MPH, WITH
ISOLATED AREAS IN THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU AND PALOUSE AREAS SEEING
GUSTS 20-25 MPH. THESE GUSTS WILL NOT REQUIRE WIND HEADLINES, BUT
TRAVELERS, ESPECIALLY IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES, SHOULD REMAIN AWARE.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: WITH A RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, OF MORE IMPORTANCE IS A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT COULD BRING HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS. CURRENT LONG TERM MODELS SHOW WIND GUSTS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING REACHING 30-35 MPH FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
WEEKEND. NBM PROBABILITIES SHOW A 35-45% CHANCE OF MAX WIND GUSTS
NEAR 45 MPH. BOTTOM LINE, EXPECT A BREAK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
THEN POSSIBLE TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO WIND EARLY NEXT WEEK. /AS
AVIATION
00Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS MVFR, PERHAPS IFR
TONIGHT AS A BAND OF PRECIPIATION BLOSSOMS OVER EASTERN WA AND
NORTH ID. MAIN TIMING FOR ACTIVITY TO RAMP UP IS BETWEEN 6-9Z
FOR KPUW-KLWS-KCOE AND 9-12Z FOR KGEG-KSFF. PRECIPITION FOR
KEAT-KMWH WILL BE MORE SPOTTY THAN STEADY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THERE IS AN 80-95 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KGEG-
KSFF-KCOE-KPUW-KLWS FROM 12Z-00Z AND A 30-60% CHANCE OF IFR
CEILINGS. CONCERNS SHIFT TO -SHRA AND A 5-10% CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN WA AND NORTH ID AROUND 21Z WEDNESDAY
LASTING UNTIL 3-4Z THURSDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF RAIN.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 42 48 32 48 31 48 / 60 90 60 20 20 10
COEUR D'ALENE 41 46 34 45 31 46 / 80 90 80 50 30 20
PULLMAN 42 45 34 43 31 46 / 70 100 80 70 40 20
LEWISTON 44 49 38 50 35 52 / 70 100 80 50 30 10
COLVILLE 38 49 30 49 29 50 / 50 80 40 20 10 10
SANDPOINT 39 44 34 43 31 43 / 80 100 80 60 30 30
KELLOGG 41 44 35 40 32 41 / 80 100 90 80 60 50
MOSES LAKE 41 56 34 54 31 56 / 30 50 10 0 0 10
WENATCHEE 41 54 37 50 36 54 / 40 70 10 10 10 10
OMAK 39 53 33 52 33 51 / 30 60 10 0 0 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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