939
FXUS66 KOTX 041737
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
937 AM PST WED MAR 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOUNTAIN SNOW, LOWLAND RAIN, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW AND STRONG
WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
SYNOPSIS
A PASSING SYSTEM WILL BRING MOUNTAIN SNOW, LOWLAND RAIN, AND
BREEZY WINDS FOR TODAY. MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF WINTER
TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES. A STRONGER SYSTEM
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BRING A RISK OF STRONG WEST WINDS.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY: A SHORTWAVE WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH
THE REGION. WITH A PUNCH OF COLD AIR, IT WILL CHANGE THE PRECIP
TYPE FOR THE CASCADES FROM RAIN TO SNOW BY MIDDAY TODAY. SNOW
RATES FOR STEVENS PASS WILL BE UP TO TWO INCHES EVERY SIX HOURS
THROUGH 10 AM THURSDAY. MOST LIKELY AMOUNT WILL BE AROUND 6
INCHES. THE 25-75 PERCENT PROBABILITY RANGES 3 TO 7 INCHES.
NORTH WASHINGTON AREAS WILL BE IN A DRY SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. IT
WILL LIMIT THE PRECIP AMOUNTS. SHERMAN PASS WILL ONLY GET AN
INCH OR TWO FROM SYSTEM. LOOKOUT PASS WILL GET AROUND 2 TO 5
INCHES. THE REST OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY GET RAIN WITH
POSSIBLY A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF WINTRY MIX. PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE
STILL EXPECTED RANGE FROM 0.10-0.25 OF AN INCH FOR EASTERN
WASHINGTON INCLUDING SPOKANE. HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE WHERE AMOUNTS RANGE
FROM 0.25-0.5 OF AN INCH. WEAK INSTABILITY IS STILL TRACKING
WITH THE WAVE OF 100-200 J/KG. MODELS ARE SHOWING A LESS THAN 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING. AN INFREQUENT STRIKE IS POSSIBLE
DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY WITH THE PASSING SYSTEM WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON GUSTS REACHING NEAR 30 MPH ACROSS THE BASIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SPRING LIKE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
UPPER 40S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND UPPER 20S.
FRIDAY AND SUNDAY: A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO BUILD A RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. IT WILL DIMINISH THE PRECIP THREAT FOR THE BASIN AND
VALLEYS. LIGHT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BUT IMPACTS WILL
BE LOW IF ANY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE
50S AND LOW 60S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S UPPER 30S.
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING THE POLAR JET DIGGING
SOUTH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IT WILL BRING DECENT SNOW
AMOUNTS TO THE CASCADES. NBM HAS 25-75 PROBABILITY OF 5-12
INCHES FOR MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
GUSTS 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE BASIN. HIGHS WILL BE DIP INTO THE
40S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S. /JDC
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: IT IS CURRENTLY RAINING AT GEG, SFF, COE, PUW, AND
LWS. FOR MWH/EAT, THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH 21-00Z.
CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY AT VFR/MVFR FOR MANY OF THE TERMINALS.
OVERALL, MODELS ARE TRENDING A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES GIVEN THE INCOMING WINDS BEGINNING
AROUND 22Z. THROUGH THEN, THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR,
POSSIBLY IFR, THOUGH PROBABILITIES OF IFR ARE LOW AT 10-20%.
FOR GEG, SFF, COE, PUW, LWS, RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06-09Z.
EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND
20-22Z, WITH GUSTS 20-30KTS EXPECTED. HIGHER GUSTS ARE MORE
LIKELY NEAR PUW AND LWS. NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, AS
WINDS DECREASE, THERE ARE SOME CHANCES FOR LLWS, PARTICULARLY AT
EAT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES. LOW CONFIDENCE IN SITES DROPPING TO IFR BRIEFLY THROUGH
22Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF RAIN ENDING. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE
ON ANY IMPACTS TO SPECIFIC TERMINALS IS LOW. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
LLWS, PARTICULARLY FOR EAT, THOUGH ALSO POSSIBLE FOR PUW AND
LWS. /AS
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 47 32 49 31 48 37 / 100 70 10 20 20 30
COEUR D'ALENE 45 33 47 31 46 36 / 100 90 50 30 30 40
PULLMAN 45 34 43 31 45 36 / 100 70 60 30 40 30
LEWISTON 50 38 51 35 52 39 / 100 70 40 30 30 20
COLVILLE 48 31 50 29 50 34 / 100 50 10 10 10 30
SANDPOINT 43 34 44 31 43 35 / 100 90 60 30 40 50
KELLOGG 44 35 40 32 41 36 / 100 90 80 60 60 60
MOSES LAKE 56 35 54 33 55 39 / 80 10 0 10 10 10
WENATCHEE 54 37 50 35 55 42 / 70 10 10 10 10 10
OMAK 52 35 53 33 52 39 / 80 10 0 10 10 20
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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