047
FXUS66 KOTX 042248
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
248 PM PST WED MAR 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF SHOWERS TO BRING GRAUPEL AND GUSTY WINDS AROUND 30-40
MPH TO THE REGION THIS EVENING.
- ACTIVE WEATHER NEXT WEEK WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW, LOWLAND RAIN, AND
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS.
SYNOPSIS
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVER
THE MOUNTAIN PASSES. A STRONGER SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL
BRING A RISK OF BREEZY WEST WINDS. NEXT WEEK IS BEING MONITORED
FOR THE RETURN OF MODERATE, PERHAPS HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW AND
WINDY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
TODAY: THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SHOWERS DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE BAND OF STRATIFORM RAIN MOVING THROUGH EASTERN WA THIS
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY HAS SLOWLY BUILT BEHIND THE BAND
OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL WA UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT
LOOKS MEAGER (100-250 J/KG). WITH NO CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT AT
THE SURFACE AND WEAK FORCING FROM A VORT MAX IN CENTRAL WA, SHOWERS
WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THEY FORM. SHOWERS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH, SMALL GRAUPEL, AND
ISOLATED LIGHTNING. INSTABILITY WILL WEAR OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET AND SHOWERS WILL DECREASE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: A SHOWERY REGIME WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AS MOISTURE RICH AIR RIDES OVERTOP A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OFF THE WA COAST, BUT THE RIDGE NOSING INTO THE REGION WILL
BRING SNOW LEVELS ABOVE THE PASS LEVEL. SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY AS THE
POLAR JET BECOMES ZONAL AND EXTENDS INTO WELL INTO SOUTHERN CANADA.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND THE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE OR COAST
SUNDAY. GENERALLY, IT APPEARS WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 30-40
MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: NEXT WEEK WILL BE ACTIVE AS THE POLAR JET
REMAINS ANCHORED IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THERE WILL BE BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CHANCES FOR MODERATE SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS. NBM 10-90TH PERCENTILE FOR SNOW FOR STEVENS PASS IS 9-
35 INCHES FROM MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY AND 2-15 INCHES FOR LOOKOUT PASS.
WITH A RAMP UP IN QPF ADVERTISED FROM THE AIGFS AND AIFS ENSEMBLES,
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A RETURN OF WINTRY WEATHER IN THE
MOUNTAINS NEXT WEEK. /DB
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: IT IS CURRENTLY RAINING AT GEG, SFF, COE, PUW, AND
LWS. FOR MWH/EAT, THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH 21-00Z.
CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY AT VFR/MVFR FOR MANY OF THE TERMINALS.
OVERALL, MODELS ARE TRENDING A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES GIVEN THE INCOMING WINDS BEGINNING
AROUND 22Z. THROUGH THEN, THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR,
POSSIBLY IFR, THOUGH PROBABILITIES OF IFR ARE LOW AT 10-20%.
FOR GEG, SFF, COE, PUW, LWS, RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06-09Z.
EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND
20-22Z, WITH GUSTS 20-30KTS EXPECTED. HIGHER GUSTS ARE MORE
LIKELY NEAR PUW AND LWS. NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, AS
WINDS DECREASE, THERE ARE SOME CHANCES FOR LLWS, PARTICULARLY AT
EAT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES. LOW CONFIDENCE IN SITES DROPPING TO IFR BRIEFLY THROUGH
22Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF RAIN ENDING. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE
ON ANY IMPACTS TO SPECIFIC TERMINALS IS LOW. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
LLWS, PARTICULARLY FOR EAT, THOUGH ALSO POSSIBLE FOR PUW AND
LWS. /AS
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CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 33 50 31 47 38 52 / 70 10 10 10 40 10
COEUR D'ALENE 35 48 31 44 36 50 / 90 40 20 30 50 40
PULLMAN 35 43 31 45 37 52 / 80 40 20 30 40 30
LEWISTON 39 50 34 50 40 58 / 80 50 20 20 30 10
COLVILLE 31 51 29 50 34 52 / 60 10 10 10 40 20
SANDPOINT 35 46 31 43 35 46 / 90 50 20 30 60 60
KELLOGG 36 42 32 40 37 46 / 100 80 50 50 70 70
MOSES LAKE 34 55 33 55 40 60 / 10 0 10 10 20 0
WENATCHEE 38 50 36 54 43 57 / 10 10 10 10 20 10
OMAK 35 53 33 52 38 55 / 30 0 10 10 20 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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