155
FXUS66 KOTX 210706
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1206 AM PDT SAT MAR 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HYDROLOGY CONCERNS: RAIN-ON-SNOW IN THE IDAHO PANHANDLE WILL
BRING RISES ON SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS THROUGH SATURDAY.
- NEXT SYSTEM: UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING MOUNTAIN SNOW AND POTENTIAL WIND IMPACTS AND TRAVEL
IMPACTS OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES.
SYNOPSIS
SATURDAY WILL MARK THE START OF A COOLING AND DRYING TREND AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THE CURRENT PLUME OF MOISTURE SOUTHEASTWARD
OUT OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS FORECAST TO RETURN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS MOUNTAIN SNOW,
LOWLAND RAIN, AND BREEZY WINDS.
DISCUSSION
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE INLAND NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING. AS OF 12AM, THE FRONT
IS NEAR-STATIONARY WITH NORTH-CENTRAL WASHINGTON, THE COLUMBIA
BASIN, AND NORTHEAST WASHINGTON IN A POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 20S TO 30S. NORTH IDAHO DOWN INTO THE SPOKANE
AREA AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON REMAIN IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 40S.
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND PROVIDE THE
NECESSARY FORCING TO ACCELERATE THE FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL
FORCE A BAND OF RAIN FROM THE CENTRAL IDAHO PANHANDLE INTO
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
0.10 TO 0.20 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON, THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, AND THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE LOWLANDS. THE HEAVIEST TOTALS
WILL BE ACROSS THE SHOSHONE COUNTY MOUNTAINS WITH TOTALS BETWEEN
0.50 TO 1 INCHES. THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON A PRIMED SNOWPACK WILL
BRING RISES ON RIVERS, BUT FLOODING IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
PWAT VALUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO
PANHANDLE DROPPING FROM OVER 0.70 INCHES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TO
UNDER 0.30 INCHES BY THE AFTERNOON. NOT ONLY WILL THIS BRING AN END
TO THE PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION THAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE CASCADES
AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE THIS PAST WEEK, BUT IT WILL ALSO BRING MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. A PERIOD OF DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY WILL REDUCE MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT RATES,
ALLOWING LOCAL RIVERS TO BEGIN RECEDING.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS MID-WEEK AS A SURFACE
LOW MOVES UP THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF BROADER TROUGHING IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA ON TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST TUESDAY,
BRINGING A RETURN IN PRECIPITATION, AND THEN THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE INLAND NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH AND PROGRESSION
OF THE SURFACE LOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING
IN ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAKER, MORE NORTHERLY TRACK ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA WOULD FAVOR SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND A TIGHTER
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT, PROMOTING A STRONGER WIND THREAT TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. CONVERSELY, A STRONGER AND MORE SOUTHERLY
PRIMARY LOW WOULD DIMINISH THE RIDGE INFLUENCE AND SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WHILE ACCELERATING THE ARRIVAL OF THE SUBSEQUENT SYSTEM.
THIS LESSENS THE WIND THREAT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT
INCREASES IT FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING. CURRENTLY, THE NBM GIVES THE
INLAND NORTHWEST A 50-80% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH
ON WEDNESDAY AND A 20-40% CHANCE FOR GUSTS GREATER THAN 45 MPH. SNOW
LEVELS WOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW THE PASSES WITH A 50%
CHANCE FOR 6 INCHES AT STEVENS PASS BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. /VMT
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: AN INCOMING COLD FRONT IS PUSHING A BAND OF MOISTURE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION, BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN AT KGEG, KSFF, AND KCOE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
BETTER CHANCES EXIST AT KPUW AND KLWS BETWEEN 09-15Z. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT AT KPUW WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE WITH PRECIPTIATION. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE INLAND NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KNOTS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPUW WITH
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 55 29 50 32 55 40 / 30 0 0 0 0 20
COEUR D'ALENE 55 29 51 30 55 38 / 50 0 0 0 0 20
PULLMAN 52 30 50 34 54 41 / 90 0 0 0 0 20
LEWISTON 59 34 56 36 58 45 / 80 0 0 0 0 10
COLVILLE 58 28 52 30 56 36 / 20 0 0 0 0 10
SANDPOINT 53 30 48 30 52 36 / 50 0 0 0 0 20
KELLOGG 50 31 48 33 54 39 / 90 0 0 0 0 30
MOSES LAKE 58 30 56 33 58 42 / 10 0 0 0 0 10
WENATCHEE 52 32 53 35 56 41 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
OMAK 58 31 55 32 57 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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