328
FXUS66 KOTX 212113
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
213 PM PDT SAT MAR 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HYDROLOGY: ST JOE AND COEUR D'ALENE RIVERS NEAR BANKFULL WITH
ADDITIONAL SMALL RISES INTO SUNDAY. STEHEKIN RIVER FALLING BUT
LEVELS STILL HIGH
- NEXT SYSTEM: UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING VALLEY RAIN, MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW, AND BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH COLDER NIGHT
TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS FORECAST TO RETURN TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS VALLEY
RAIN, MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW, AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE REGION
TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT AS NOTED BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
CENTRAL WASHINGTON DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S, AND EVEN
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE METHOW VALLEY. AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX
TONIGHT AND SKIES CLEAR, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH
LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S DUE TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.
WE ARE NOT IN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL GROWING SEASON YET, BUT WITH
THE MILD MARCH IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT ANY EARLY BLOOMERS OR
EAGER PLANTERS WILL HAVE COLD TEMPS TO CONTEND WITH TONIGHT. THE
DRY AIR PERSISTS ON SUNDAY WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS OVER
NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND IDAHO, AND SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S. ON MONDAY ANOTHER DRY DAY IS IN STORE, BUT SLIGHTLY
WARMER AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WEATHER SYSTEM.
TUESDAY: THIS IS THE WETTEST DAY OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST. A MOIST
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY TAKES AIM AT THE REGION AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 200-250% OF NORMAL.
THANKFULLY, THIS BOUNDARY IS A QUICK HITTER, LASTING ONLY 12-18
HOURS. THUS, WHILE SOME ADDITIONAL RIVER AND STREAM RISES ARE
FORECAST, THE RISE IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF WITH LOWER RIVER
LEVELS IN THE CASCADES AND ID PANHANDLE COMPARED TO THOSE
OBSERVED THIS WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS INITIALLY START OFF 3500-5000
FEET BUT QUICKLY RISE WITH THE INCOMING WARMER AIR. NBM SHOWS A
30% CHANCE OF 1" OR MORE OF SNOW AT STEVENS AND SHERMAN PASSES
BEFORE SNOW LEVEL CLIMB. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BETWEEN 0.25-0.50" INCHES FOR EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO EXCEPT
LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR THE CASCADE CREST AND ID PANHANDLE. LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IF FORECAST FOR MOST OF CENTRAL
WASHINGTON.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY: AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST
SNOW LEVELS FALL AGAIN WITH POST FRONTAL WESTERLY FLOW FAVORING
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AND ID
PANHANDLE. YET THE NBM ISN'T SHOWING MUCH SNOW FOR MOST OF OUR
MOUNTAINS, WITH THE CASCADE CREST PASSES MOST FAVORED FOR SNOW.
THE NBM FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM SATURDAY FOR STEVENS PASS
IS SHOWING A 70% CHANCE FOR 4" OR MORE, 50% CHANCE FOR 6" OR
MORE, AND 15% CHANCE FOR 12" OR MORE.
FINALLY, WEDNESDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A WINDY DAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. FOR THE TYPICAL WINDY SPOTS (WENATCHEE AREA,
COLUMBIA BASIN, WEST PLAINS, PALOUSE) THE NBM IS CARRYING A
50-70% CHANCE OF GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH. JW
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN TODAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. AS OF 17Z SKIES HAD CLEARED OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND THE NORTH IDAHO PANHANDLE EXCEPT FOR
FLAT CUMULUS DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE DRIER AIR
WILL PUSH INTO SE WASHINGTON AND THE SOUTH ID PANHANDLE THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON
REGIONWIDE OUT OF THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 15-25
KTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT KPUW/KCOE
THROUGH 20Z AS DAYTIME HEATING AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE PRODUCED A LOWER STRATOCUMULUS DECK BEFORE CLOUD
HEIGHTS RISE. JW
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 29 52 32 57 41 51 / 0 0 0 0 10 90
COEUR D'ALENE 30 50 32 56 40 50 / 0 0 0 0 20 100
PULLMAN 30 50 35 55 43 53 / 0 0 0 0 10 90
LEWISTON 34 55 37 60 46 58 / 0 0 0 0 10 80
COLVILLE 24 55 30 57 38 50 / 0 0 0 0 10 100
SANDPOINT 30 50 31 53 38 46 / 10 0 0 0 20 100
KELLOGG 31 49 34 56 41 50 / 0 0 0 0 20 100
MOSES LAKE 30 59 34 60 43 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 70
WENATCHEE 34 57 35 57 42 53 / 0 0 0 0 10 80
OMAK 30 56 34 58 41 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 90
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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