722
FXUS66 KOTX 221139
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
439 AM PDT SUN MAR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HYDROLOGY: ST JOE AND COEUR D'ALENE RIVERS NEAR BANKFULL WITH
ADDITIONAL SMALL RISES INTO SUNDAY. STEHEKIN RIVER IS FALLING
BUT LEVELS STILL HIGH
- NEXT SYSTEM: UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING VALLEY RAIN, MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW, AND BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH COLDER NIGHT
TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS FORECAST TO RETURN TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS VALLEY
RAIN, MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW, AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. A
RETURN TO WARM, DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WEEKS END.
DISCUSSION
TODAY AND MONDAY: THE INLAND NORTHWEST WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH OVER SOUTHWEST US. IT IS BRINGING DRY,
WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH LEVEL STRATUS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. A WEAKENING GRADIENT BEHIND YESTERDAYS
SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO WEAKER WINDS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
LOW 60S. WITH CLEAR SKIES, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE OPTIMAL
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL DIP INTO UPPER 20S AND 30S FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT. AN INCOMING SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY
NIGHT AND KEEP LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: A LOW IS CURRENTLY OFF OF CALIFORNIA
AROUND -140 DEGREE LONGITUDE. IT WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 200-250% OF NORMAL. NBM PROBABILITIES OF PRECIP AMOUNTS
ARE AROUND 50-80% FOR HALF AN INCH FOR THE IDAHO PANHANDLE.
EXTREME EASTERN WASHINGTON IS AROUND 20-40% PROBABILITY. THE
CASCADE CREST HAS A 50% PROBABILITY FOR ONE INCH. THE LOWLANDS
ALONG THE CASCADES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
RISING SNOW LEVELS WILL LIMIT THE SNOW AMOUNTS FOR MOUNTAIN
PASSES. STEVENS COULD RECEIVE 3-6 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
10-90% PROBABILITY FOR STEVENS PASS IS 1-10 INCHES. SHERMAN AND
LOOKOUT WILL STRUGGLE TO GET AN INCH. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY
WITH THE PASSING SYSTEM. CURRENT NBM HAS GUSTS 20-30 MPH. SOME
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE GUSTS REACHING NEAR 40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
NEAR ZERO AFTER THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S
AND 30S. /JDC
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH SUNDAY. MAIN THREAT FOR SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
ALONG THE CASCADE CREST AND WITHIN THE CLEARWATER AND ST JOE
RIVER VALLEYS MAINLY THROUGH 16Z. STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
GUST TO 15KTS AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS INCLUDING KGEG AND KSFF FROM
19-02Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY. /SB
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 52 32 58 41 50 38 / 0 0 0 10 90 70
COEUR D'ALENE 50 32 57 40 50 39 / 0 0 0 10 90 90
PULLMAN 50 34 56 43 52 40 / 0 0 0 10 90 80
LEWISTON 55 37 60 45 56 45 / 0 0 0 10 80 80
COLVILLE 55 31 58 38 50 35 / 0 0 0 10 100 70
SANDPOINT 50 32 53 37 45 39 / 0 0 0 20 100 90
KELLOGG 49 34 56 41 50 40 / 0 0 0 20 90 100
MOSES LAKE 59 32 60 43 56 39 / 0 0 0 10 70 30
WENATCHEE 57 35 57 43 53 37 / 0 0 0 10 90 30
OMAK 56 34 58 42 53 38 / 0 0 0 10 90 40
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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