578
FXUS66 KOTX 222125
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
225 PM PDT SUN MAR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
VALLEY RAIN, MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW, BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS
- FALLING RIVER LEVELS ON STEHEKIN, COEUR D'ALENE, AND ST JOE
RIVERS INTO MONDAY, AND THEN ANOTHER RISE FOR MID-WEEK
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH COLDER NIGHT
TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS FORECAST TO RETURN TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS VALLEY
RAIN, MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW, AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. A
RETURN TO WARM, DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WEEKS END.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: ANOTHER NIGHT OF DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL LEAD TO STRONG RADITIONAL COOLING FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S TO MID 30S. PASSING HIGH CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING TO FULL POTENTIAL, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO LIMIT
THE TEMPERATURE FALL MUCH. ON MONDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING MILDER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES, REACHING THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY: THIS IS THE WETTEST DAY OF THE 7 DAY
FORECAST. A MOIST SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY TAKES AIM
AT THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE
TO 200-250% OF NORMAL. MODELS STILL SHOW THIS SYSTEM TO BE A
QUICK HITTER, LASTING ONLY 12-18 HOURS. THUS, WHILE SOME
ADDITIONAL RIVER AND STREAM RISES ARE FORECAST, THE RISE IS
EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF WITH NO MAIN-STEM RIVER FLOODING EXPECTED.
SNOW LEVELS INITIALLY START OFF 3500-5000 FEET BUT QUICKLY RISE
TO 5500-7500 FEET BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE INCOMING WARMER
AIR. AROUND 1" OF SNOW IS FORECAST FOR STEVENS AND SHERMAN
PASSES TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SNOW LEVEL CLIMB. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 0.35-0.75" INCHES FOR
EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO EXCEPT LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR
THE CASCADE CREST AND ID PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS. LESS THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH IF FORECAST FOR MOST OF CENTRAL WASHINGTON.
WEDNESDAY: AS A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM
PUSHES EAST INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA, IT SENDS A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION WITH SHOWERS BECOMING CONFINED TO MAINLY THE
CASCADE CREST AND ID PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS. THE CHANCE FOR 1" OR
MORE OF SNOW IS 90 PERCENT FOR STEVENS PASS, AND 30 PERCENT FOR
LOOKOUT PASS. THE FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS, BUT
SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS WITH PRECISE SPEEDS. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY, THE NBM CONTINUES TO CARRY A 50-70% CHANCE OF GUSTS
EXCEEDING 40 MPH FOR THE WENATCHEE AREA, COLUMBIA BASIN, WEST
PLAINS, AND PALOUSE. THE CHANCE FOR GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 MPH IS
10-20% FOR THESE SAME AREAS.
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY: MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FOR LATE IN THE WEEK FOR WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS. CURRENTLY THE NBM IS SHOWING A 70-80% CHANCE THAT
THE MILD AND DRY WEATHER EXTENDS INTO SUNDAY AS WELL. JW
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 15KTS
AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS INCLUDING KGEG AND KSFF FROM 19-02Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z
MONDAY. JW
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 33 57 42 51 39 51 / 0 0 10 90 70 30
COEUR D'ALENE 32 57 39 51 40 51 / 0 0 10 100 90 50
PULLMAN 35 57 42 53 40 48 / 0 0 10 90 90 60
LEWISTON 38 61 46 58 46 55 / 0 0 10 80 80 50
COLVILLE 31 59 38 50 37 55 / 0 0 10 100 70 40
SANDPOINT 32 54 37 46 39 52 / 0 0 10 100 90 60
KELLOGG 35 56 42 51 40 47 / 0 0 10 90 100 70
MOSES LAKE 33 61 44 57 39 59 / 0 0 0 80 30 10
WENATCHEE 36 58 42 54 38 55 / 0 0 0 90 30 20
OMAK 34 59 42 53 38 58 / 0 0 10 90 40 20
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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