688
FXUS66 KOTX 240601
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1101 PM PDT MON MAR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BRINGING VALLEY RAIN,
MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW, BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
- FALLING RIVER LEVELS ON STEHEKIN, COEUR D'ALENE, AND ST JOE
RIVERS INTO MONDAY, AND THEN ANOTHER RISE FOR MID-WEEK
SYNOPSIS
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS VALLEY RAIN, MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW, AND
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. A RETURN TO WARM, DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. AFTERNOON SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING JUST
EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
DRIVING THIS MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS A
ROBUST 170+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OUT AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH ALONG THE 150W LONGITUDINAL LINE WILL
SUPPLY FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT TO SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW THAT
TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. AN AREA OF
BAROCLINICITY IS TAKING SHAPE AT AROUND 42N 138W WHERE
CYCLOGENESIS IS UNDERWAY. THE PROGNOSIS IS FOR THE THE LOW TO
DEEPEN FROM AROUND 1000MB CURRENTLY TO 990MB AS IT MOVES INTO
NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT
WILL PUSHING ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING. GOOD
MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH THE WARM FRONT AND THE MOISTURE
PLUME WITH PWATS PUSHING 250% OF NORMAL WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS
REGIONWIDE. DOWN SLOPING WILL OCCUR WITH WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE CASCADES WHICH WILL NEGATE THE UPWARD MOTION FROM THE WARM
FRONT TO AN EXTENT ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE CASCADES. LIGHT RAIN
OF UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED FOR PLACES LIKE WENATCHEE, OMAK, AND MOSES LAKE. THE
RAIN SHADOW WILL NOT EXTEND MUCH ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN
WASHINGTON WITH PLACES LIKE COLVILLE, SPOKANE, AND PULLMAN
EXPECTED TO GET A GOOD DOSING OF RAIN WITH TOTALS IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF TWO TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE WILL SEE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF OF AN INCH OF
RAIN EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS THAT WILL SEE OVER A HALF OF INCH
TO NEAR AN INCH OF RAIN. THE CASCADE CREST WILL SEE A ROUND OF
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH THE WARM FRONT WITH BETWEEN 1.00-1.50
INCHES. THIS WILL GENERALLY BE AT LEAST A HALF TO TWO-THIRDS
LESS THAN THE LAST ROUND OF RAIN THAT PUSHED THE STEHEKIN RIVER
ABOVE THE 24 FOOT STAGE. THE LONGEVITY OF THIS SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME DOESN'T RIVAL THAT OF THE MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER FROM LATE LAST WEEK. WE WILL SEE RISES ON RIVERS,
INCLUDING THE STEHEKIN RIVER, AND SMALL STREAMS, BUT FLOODING IS
NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. THE STEHEKIN RIVER IS
A SPECIAL CASE AS IT IS VERY SENSITIVE TO RISES AND A FLOOD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.
SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE TUESDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW
OVER STEVENS PASS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY, BUT SNOW ISN'T
EXPECTED TO START STICKING UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS AS
TEMPERATURES COOL. TOTAL SNOWFALL OVER STEVENS PASS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 5 TO 8 INCHES.
SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN INTENSITY AND POSE A MINOR
IMPACT TO TRAVEL. WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MORE UNCERTAINTY IF SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO STICK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
ALSO BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE BREEZY ON TUESDAY AND BECOME GUSTY
BY WEDNESDAY IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS WHERE COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL MAXIMIZE MIXING POTENTIAL. WINDS ALOFT WILL
DECREASE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH WITH GUSTS GENERALLY ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE UP AROUND 30 MPH ACROSS THE EXPOSED AREAS OF THE
COLUMBIA BASIN. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALSO BRING CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED ACROSS NORTHEAST
WASHINGTON INTO THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AND MORE ISOLATED INTO THE
COLUMBIA BASIN. THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS WILL BRING
SNOW AND/OR GRAUPEL AS THE PRECIP TYPE OVER NORTHEAST WASHINGTON
INTO THE IDAHO PANHANDLE TO RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE COLUMBIA
BASIN.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT
THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES WARM UP INTO THE
60S BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. SOME MELTING
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SLIGHT RISES FOR RIVERS. WE ARE NOT
LOOKING AT A BIG WARM UP AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. THIS WILL
LIMIT THE AMOUNT SNOW MELT THAT RUNS OFF ACROSS WATERSHEDS.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW LONG THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE INLAND NORTHWEST. EARLY INDICATIONS SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL BE
FAIRLY SHORT LASTING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS DISPLACING THE RIDGE BY NEXT MONDAY. /SVH
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. CHANGES WILL ARRIVE
AFTER 15Z TUESDAY TO 00Z WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING
AND CEILINGS CONTINUING TO LOWER THROUGH THE DAY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER
18-21Z. KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW WILL BE UNDER MVFR CEILINGS AFTER
01Z. BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 15Z
TUESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS TOWARD 21-00Z
WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE AFTER 01Z KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW. LOW
CONFIDENCE LLWS AT KGEG/KSFF 21Z TUESDAY TO 06Z WEDNESDAY (I.E
CONTINUING BEYOND THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD). IF MIXING DOES NOT
HAPPEN AND BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE, POSSIBLE LLWS AT
AROUND 2KFT, OUT OF SOUTHWEST AT 45KTS.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 42 52 39 51 29 48 / 10 100 90 20 20 0
COEUR D'ALENE 40 51 40 51 29 48 / 10 100 100 30 40 10
PULLMAN 43 55 42 48 29 45 / 20 90 100 50 30 10
LEWISTON 46 61 47 56 34 51 / 20 70 100 50 20 0
COLVILLE 40 51 36 53 28 51 / 10 100 60 40 30 10
SANDPOINT 38 47 39 49 30 46 / 10 100 100 60 60 30
KELLOGG 42 50 42 48 30 43 / 20 100 100 60 60 30
MOSES LAKE 45 60 38 55 30 54 / 10 70 30 10 10 0
WENATCHEE 44 57 38 50 32 50 / 10 90 20 20 10 0
OMAK 41 54 37 55 29 53 / 20 90 30 20 10 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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