767
FXUS66 KOTX 240802
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
102 AM PDT TUE MAR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BRINGING VALLEY RAIN,
MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW, BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
- FALLING RIVER LEVELS ON STEHEKIN, COEUR D'ALENE, AND ST JOE
RIVERS INTO MONDAY, AND THEN ANOTHER RISE FOR MID-WEEK
SYNOPSIS
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS VALLEY RAIN, MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW, AND
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. A RETURN TO WARM, DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY: A LOW IS CURRENTLY OFF OF CALIFORNIA
AROUND 39 DEGREE LATITUDE, -128 DEGREE LONGITUDE. IT PUSHING A
WARM FRONT INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INCREASING
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS TO 200-250% OF NORMAL. NBM
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE AROUND 50-80% FOR HALF AN
INCH AND 30-50% FOR AN INCH OVER THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. EXTREME
EASTERN WASHINGTON IS AROUND 20-40% PROBABILITY. THE CASCADE
CREST HAS A 50% PROBABILITY FOR ONE INCH OF PRECIP. THE LOWLANDS
ALONG THE CASCADES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
RISING SNOW LEVELS WILL LIMIT THE SNOW AMOUNTS FOR MOUNTAIN
PASSES FOR TUESDAY. COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY WILL LOWER
SNOW LEVELS AND BRING SNOW TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INLAND
NORTHWEST. STEVENS COULD RECEIVE 2-6 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE 10-90% PROBABILITY FOR STEVENS PASS IS 2-10 INCHES. SHERMAN
AND LOOKOUT WILL STRUGGLE TO GET AN INCH. WINDS WILL ALSO BE
BREEZY WITH THE PASSING SYSTEM. CURRENT NBM HAS GUSTS 25-35 MPH.
SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE GUSTS REACHING NEAR 45 MPH ON
WEDNESDAY. ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN STEADILY INCREASING THE WIND
SPEEDS EACH UPDATE. THE ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING WEAK INSTABILITY
OVER NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE IS POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
NEAR ZERO AFTER THURSDAY MORNING AND STAY LOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. THE RIDGE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BREAKDOWN ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PRESS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST .IT
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLE WEATHER IN THE MIDWEEK.
/JDC
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. CHANGES WILL ARRIVE
AFTER 15Z TUESDAY TO 00Z WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING
AND CEILINGS CONTINUING TO LOWER THROUGH THE DAY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER
18-21Z. KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW WILL BE UNDER MVFR CEILINGS AFTER
01Z. BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 15Z
TUESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS TOWARD 21-00Z
WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE AFTER 01Z KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW. LOW
CONFIDENCE LLWS AT KGEG/KSFF 21Z TUESDAY TO 06Z WEDNESDAY (I.E
CONTINUING BEYOND THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD). IF MIXING DOES NOT
HAPPEN AND BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE, POSSIBLE LLWS AT
AROUND 2KFT, OUT OF SOUTHWEST AT 45KTS.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 52 39 51 29 48 27 / 100 90 20 20 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 51 40 51 29 48 26 / 100 100 30 40 10 0
PULLMAN 55 42 48 29 45 28 / 90 100 50 30 10 0
LEWISTON 61 47 56 34 51 30 / 70 100 50 20 0 0
COLVILLE 51 36 53 28 51 25 / 100 60 40 30 10 0
SANDPOINT 47 39 49 30 46 26 / 100 100 60 60 30 0
KELLOGG 50 42 48 30 43 28 / 100 100 60 60 30 0
MOSES LAKE 60 38 55 30 54 29 / 70 30 10 10 0 0
WENATCHEE 57 38 50 32 50 32 / 90 20 20 10 0 0
OMAK 54 37 55 29 53 31 / 90 30 20 10 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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