276
FXUS66 KOTX 241152
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
452 AM PDT TUE MAR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BRINGING VALLEY RAIN,
MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW, BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
- FALLING RIVER LEVELS ON STEHEKIN, COEUR D'ALENE, AND ST JOE
RIVERS INTO MONDAY, AND THEN ANOTHER RISE FOR MID-WEEK
SYNOPSIS
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS VALLEY RAIN, MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW, AND
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. A RETURN TO WARM, DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY: A LOW IS CURRENTLY OFF OF CALIFORNIA
AROUND 39 DEGREE LATITUDE, -128 DEGREE LONGITUDE. IT PUSHING A
WARM FRONT INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INCREASING
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS TO 200-250% OF NORMAL. NBM
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE AROUND 50-80% FOR HALF AN
INCH AND 30-50% FOR AN INCH OVER THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. EXTREME
EASTERN WASHINGTON IS AROUND 20-40% PROBABILITY. THE CASCADE
CREST HAS A 50% PROBABILITY FOR ONE INCH OF PRECIP. THE LOWLANDS
ALONG THE CASCADES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
RISING SNOW LEVELS WILL LIMIT THE SNOW AMOUNTS FOR MOUNTAIN
PASSES FOR TUESDAY. COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY WILL LOWER
SNOW LEVELS AND BRING SNOW TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INLAND
NORTHWEST. STEVENS COULD RECEIVE 2-6 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE 10-90% PROBABILITY FOR STEVENS PASS IS 2-10 INCHES. SHERMAN
AND LOOKOUT WILL STRUGGLE TO GET AN INCH. WINDS WILL ALSO BE
BREEZY WITH THE PASSING SYSTEM. CURRENT NBM HAS GUSTS 25-35 MPH.
SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE GUSTS REACHING NEAR 45 MPH ON
WEDNESDAY. ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN STEADILY INCREASING THE WIND
SPEEDS EACH UPDATE. THE ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING WEAK INSTABILITY
OVER NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE IS POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
NEAR ZERO AFTER THURSDAY MORNING AND STAY LOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. THE RIDGE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BREAKDOWN ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PRESS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST .IT
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLE WEATHER IN THE MIDWEEK.
/JDC
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: A MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
WITH LOWERING CIGS AND RAIN. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL ACROSS THE CASCADE CREST AND AGAIN INTO THE RISING TERRAIN
OF NE WA, PALOUSE, AND NORTH IDAHO. THESE AREAS WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES (60-70%) FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS A 10-20%
CHANCE FOR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE
FOR RAINFALL RATES TO BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES AROUND
KELLOGG, COEUR D ALENE, AND SANDPOINT AND LOWER CONFIDENCE AT
PULLMAN, SPOKANE, AND COLVILLE. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER
19Z ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND OVER EXPOSED RIDGETOPS. PER
THE HREF, THERE IS A 90% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 30
MPH FROM RITZVILLE TO SPOKANE TO DEER PARK WITH ISOLATED, BRIEF
GUSTS TO 45 MPH EXPECTED OVER THE UPPER RIM OF THE COLUMBIA
BASIN BETWEEN AIRWAY HEIGHTS AND WILBUR. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT AS RAIN TAPERS OFF.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS TOWARD 21-00Z WITH
INCREASING CONFIDENCE AFTER 23Z KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW. WIND GUSTS
HAVE POTENTIAL TO BE SPORADIC WITH RAIN WITH BORDERLINE LLWS AT
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW BETWEEN 22Z-08Z WITH WINDS 2000-4000 FT AGL
INCREASING 35-45KTS. IF MIXING DOES NOT HAPPEN AND BRING GUSTY
WINDS TO THE SURFACE, POSSIBLE LLWS AT AROUND 2KFT, OUT OF
SOUTHWEST AT 45KTS. /SB
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 52 39 51 29 48 27 / 100 90 20 20 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 51 40 51 29 48 26 / 100 100 30 40 10 0
PULLMAN 55 42 48 29 45 28 / 90 100 50 30 10 0
LEWISTON 61 47 56 34 51 30 / 70 100 50 20 0 0
COLVILLE 51 36 53 28 51 25 / 100 60 40 30 10 0
SANDPOINT 47 39 49 30 46 26 / 100 100 60 60 30 0
KELLOGG 50 42 48 30 43 28 / 100 100 60 60 30 0
MOSES LAKE 60 38 55 30 54 29 / 70 30 10 10 0 0
WENATCHEE 57 38 50 32 50 32 / 90 20 20 10 0 0
OMAK 54 37 55 29 53 31 / 90 30 20 10 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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