016
FXUS66 KOTX 251149
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
449 AM PDT WED MAR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CASCADE PASS SNOW: WINTRY TRAVEL CONDITIONS DEVELOP TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE CASCADES AS SNOW LEVELS DROP TO
BELOW PASS LEVELS.
- GUSTY WINDS: WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS 25 TO 40 MPH.
- HYDROLOGY: THE STEHEKIN RIVER AT STEHEKIN IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN ABOVE ITS ACTION STAGE (19.5 FT) FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
OTHER AREA RIVERS WILL STAY ELEVATED BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW
ACTION STAGE.
SYNOPSIS
A PASSING COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SNOW LEVELS BELOW MOUNTAIN
PASSES, RESULTING IN WINTRY TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVER THE CASCADES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND MAKING FOR A DRIER AND WARMER END TO THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY: THE REGION IS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MOISTURE PLUME. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND DROPPING SNOW
LEVELS. PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS WILL STEADILY DROP THROUGH
THE DAY WITH DRY AIR FILLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. PERCENT OF
NORMAL WILL START AROUND 80-90% AND DECREASE TO 40-50%. MAIN
CONCERNS FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD WILL BE MOUNTAIN PASS SNOW,
PRIMARILY FOR THE CASCADES, AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN.
FOR SNOW AMOUNTS, ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR
SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. STEVENS COULD RECEIVE 5-8
INCHES. THE 10-90% PROBABILITY FOR STEVENS PASS IS 4-10 INCHES.
AS WITH THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, SNOW AMOUNTS ARE BASED ON
WHERE THE PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE FORMS. IT IS CURRENTLY
FORMING IN THE AREA OF STEVENS PASS. THE DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT
ANY SNOWFALL ALONG THE LOWER SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. ELEVATIONS
HIGHER THAN 4000FT COULD GET 1 TO 3 INCHES. LOWER ELEVATIONS
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET UP TO AN INCH. SHERMAN AND LOOKOUT WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET AN INCH. WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BREEZY
THROUGH THE DAY. TRENDS HAVE THE WINDS WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. CURRENT NBM HAS GUSTS 25-35 MPH. SOME ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HAVE GUSTS REACHING NEAR 40 MPH. THE ENSEMBLES ARE
SHOWING WEAK INSTABILITY OVER CASCADES, NORTHEAST WASHINGTON,
AND NORTH IDAHO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE IS
POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE REGION STARTING THURSDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE NEAR ZERO
AFTER THURSDAY MORNING AND STAY LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS
WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. THE RIDGE PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO BREAKDOWN ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
PRESS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IT WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER PERIOD
OF UNSETTLE WEATHER IN THE MIDWEEK. /JDC
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: STEADY SOUTHWEST, UPSLOPE FLOW IS LEADING TO A RAGGED
STRATUS DECK OVER NORTH IDAHO WITH A FEW FINGERS BACKBUILDING
ACROSS THE STATELINE INTO EASTERN WA. THIS RAGGED STRATUS VARIES
FROM 1000-3000 FT AGL. THERE IS A 30-50% CHANCE FOR THE STRATUS
TO BECOME BROKEN BY SUNRISE BETWEEN KGEG-SFF-KCOE. FURTHER
SOUTH, A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DELIVERING CEILINGS 4-5K FT
AGL AROUND PUW-LWS WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS. A MIDLEVEL WAVE
PIVOTING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND BUILDING CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH 30-50%
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. HIGHEST RISK WILL BE OVER NE WA AND N ID
AROUND COLVILLE, SANDPOINT, AND COEUR D ALENE THOUGH A 20-30%
EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO LEWISTON, PULLMAN, SPOKANE, AND DAVENPORT.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY 20-06Z WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS. AFTER 06Z,
WIND GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AND DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE
REGION ENDING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR BROKEN MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 17Z AT
GEG/SFF/COE/PUW. HIGHEST HREF PROBABILITIES EXIST BETWEEN
GEG/SFF AND PUW. THE INCOMING WAVE WILL BRING A LOW THREAT FOR
SHOWERS TO EXPAND AS FAR WEST AS MWH THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW
AND PRECIPITION MENTION WAS LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST. /SB
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 52 28 47 28 55 34 / 10 20 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 52 28 47 27 57 34 / 10 40 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 49 28 44 29 56 35 / 40 20 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 56 33 51 31 60 38 / 50 20 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 54 27 50 26 57 31 / 20 30 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 50 29 46 27 52 32 / 30 60 20 0 0 0
KELLOGG 48 28 43 28 56 35 / 40 60 20 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 57 30 53 29 60 36 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 53 31 51 32 55 37 / 20 10 0 0 0 0
OMAK 55 29 52 31 57 35 / 20 10 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR WESTERN
CHELAN COUNTY-WESTERN OKANOGAN COUNTY.
ID...NONE.
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