483
FXUS66 KOTX 260011
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
511 PM PDT WED MAR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CASCADE PASS SNOW: WINTRY TRAVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OVER THE CASCADES AS SNOW LEVELS DROP TO BELOW PASS
LEVELS.
- GUSTY WINDS: WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS 20 TO 40 MPH.
- HYDROLOGY: THE STEHEKIN RIVER AT STEHEKIN IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN ABOVE ITS ACTION STAGE (19.5 FT) FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
OTHER AREA RIVERS WILL STAY ELEVATED BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW
ACTION STAGE.
SYNOPSIS
SNOW LEVELS DROP BELOW MOUNTAIN PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING,
RESULTING IN WINTRY TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVER THE CASCADES THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS CHANCES WILL EXIST ELSEWHERE, WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE SATURDAY, WITH A DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER. ADDITIONAL SHOWER
CHANCES ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT: THE INLAND NW REMAINS IN SITUATED
ON THE MORE UNSTABLE SIDE AN EXITING COLD FRONT, WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THAT IS SET TO PUSH
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE 18Z SOUNDING DID SHOW ABOUT 100
J/KG OF SBCAPE, WHICH WAS HIGHER THAN MOST MEMBERS OF THE HREF
SHOWED AT THAT TIME. THIS INSTABILITY IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND WANE WITH SUNSET. AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES IN THIS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE THREAT OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. THE FIRST CHANCES WILL REMAIN
WHERE IT IS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN THE HEATING OF THE DAY: OVER
THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST,
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ELSEWHERE. STEADIER PRECIPITATION
WILL BE NEAR THE CASCADES. RECENT TEMPERATURES AT PLACES LIKE
STEVENS PASS WERE AT 36 DEGREES, BUT AS AFTERNOON PROGRESSES
INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THOSE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AND
LEAD TO MORE SNOW. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR WESTERN CHELAN AND WESTERN OKANOGAN COUNTY THROUGH TONIGHT,
WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE FOR SOME SPOTS. THIS
AFTERNOON THE TEMPERATURES AT PLACES LIKE STEVENS PASS ARE A BIT
MORE FOR EFFECTIVE ACCUMULATION, BUT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO DROP LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND THE INCOMING
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO RAMP UP THE THE SNOW RATES THEN.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CONVERGENCE ZONE THAT DIRECTS ITSELF TOWARD
THE CASCADES CREST IN THE PROXIMITY OF STEVEN PASS. SNOW RATES
NEAR 1/2 INCH PER HOUR ARE FORECAST THIS EVENING TO EARLY
OVERNIGHT. SNOW TOTALS THERE THROUGH THURSDAY AM ARE FORECAST TO
BE UP TO 6 INCHES. THE HIGHER CASCADE VALLEYS, SUCH AS NEAR
COLES CORNER, TELMA AND MAZAMA COULD SEE 0.5 TO 2 INCHES. IF
THAT CONVERGENCE ZONE SETS UP WELL AND EXTENDS OFF THE CREST IT
COULD BRING SIMILAR AMOUNTS NEAR PLAIN AND WINTON. ALL THESE
PLACES ARE MORE LIKELY TO START AS RAIN OR A MIX WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S, BUT AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES THAT SNOW RISK INCREASE.
FARTHER EAST IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES ACROSS THE BASIN TO
WA/ID BORDER, MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. THESE WILL BE MORE HIT-AND-MISS IN VARIETY, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MOSTLY RAIN CHANGING TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
AFTER SUNSET. THE INSTABILITY IS SUCH THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
EMBEDDED T-STORMS; GIVEN THE ACTUAL SOUNDING WAS A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN GUIDANCE I INCREASED COVERAGE OVER THE RAW NBM INPUT, BUT
THAT STILL DOESN'T MEAN A BIT RISK.
ADDITIONALLY IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH GUSTS NEAR 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE, LOCALLY TO 40 MPH NEAR THE
CASCADES AND BLUE MOUNTAINS. SPEED GRADUALLY WANE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL ARE FORECAST TO BE LARGELY IN THE 20S, WITH
SOME ISOLATED TEENS IN SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS NORTH AND SOME
LOW 30S TOWARD THE DEEPER BASIN AND L-C VALLEY.
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: LOW-AMPLITUDE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN THURSDAY. PRECIP CHANCES LINGERING NEAR THE CASCADE
CREST AND ID PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS WANE AFTER THURSDAY MORNING.
POPS REMAIN LOW THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
50SAND 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS. IT WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
PERIOD OF UNSETTLE WEATHER, WITH MOSTLY MOUNTAIN SNOW AND
LOWLAND RAIN. AT THIS TIME SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS LOOK
MINOR, WITH LITTLE IMPACT. WIND WILL REMAIN BREEZY THURSDAY,
WITH GUSTS NEAR 15-25 MPH AND AGAIN A LITTLE BREEZINESS COMES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /SOLVEIG
AVIATION
00Z TAFS: CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY OVER NORTHEAST WASHINGTON INTO NORTH IDAHO THROUGH
06Z. THERE IS A 30-50% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO IMPACT COLVILLE
(K63S) TO SANDPOINT (KSZT) TO DEER PARK (KDEW) AND SPOKANE/COEUR
D'ALENE (KGEG/KSFF/KCOE). THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL KEEP WINDS
GUSTY INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS (THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z) WITH
WINDS DECREASING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. AFTERNOON MIXING WITHIN
THE POST- FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT BREEZY WINDS AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES. DUE
TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES ON THE COOL SIDE, THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW PELLETS MIXING IN WITH SHOWERS AT
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 28 46 28 56 35 58 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 29 46 27 56 34 57 / 40 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 28 44 29 56 37 57 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 33 50 31 60 39 61 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 26 50 26 56 31 59 / 30 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 30 46 27 53 32 55 / 60 10 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 27 42 28 56 37 58 / 60 10 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 29 53 28 60 36 63 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 31 50 33 55 37 61 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 29 52 31 56 35 60 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR WESTERN
CHELAN COUNTY-WESTERN OKANOGAN COUNTY.
ID...NONE.
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