958
FXUS66 KOTX 272042
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
142 PM PDT FRI MAR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM, DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- WETTER WEATHER NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LARGELY LOWLAND RAIN
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
- HYDROLOGY: THE STEHEKIN RIVER AT STEHEKIN IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN ABOVE ITS ACTION STAGE (19.5 FT) FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
OTHER AREA RIVERS WILL STAY ELEVATED AND BEGIN TO RECEDE
SLOWLY THIS WEEKEND.
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH A DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE REGION NEXT WEEK WITH
RAIN, MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE
CONTROLLING FACTOR IN THE WEATHER THIS PERIOD, WITH VARIABLE
MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS AFTERNOON THERE ARE JUST SOME OF THOSE THIN HIGH CLOUDS,
WITH THE THICKER OF THEM RETREATING NORTH WITH THE JET STREAM
JUST ALONG THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE BORDER. AS WE HEAD INTO
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE SLIDES IN AND
THE JET AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH SOME. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME THICKER
MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS HEADING INTO SATURDAY, THINNING SOME INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 30S, WITH
SOME 20S IN THE NORTHERN AND CASCADES VALLEYS. HIGHS WILL BE
LARGELY IN THE 50S, WITH SOME 60S OVER THE DEEPER COLUMBIA BASIN
AND L-C VALLEY.
SUNDAY TO TUESDAY: THE PATTERN TURNS ACTIVE WITH THE FIRST
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION. A FRONTAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST, WITH THE LEADING WARM FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE COLD FRONT SHIFTING ACROSS THE CASCADES LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO FOCUS OVER OREGON AND THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF IDAHO, SKIMMING BY SOUTHEAST WA
AND THE LOWER ID PANHANDLE. THIS IS ALL TO SAY NOT A LOT OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERATED BY THIS SYSTEM,
BECAUSE AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES BY THE PWATS DROP TO 20-50% OF
NORMAL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES START NEAR THE CASCADE CREST AND
ID PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY MORNING, INCREASE TO LIKELY IN
THESE AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME HIGH CHANCE TO
LOWER LIKELY POPS ALSO COME INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF WA TOO IN
THAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME FRAME, WHILE CENTRAL WA WILL
SEE LIMITED CHANCES (5-15%). HEADING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETREAT INTO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND WANE, UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE TENDRILS OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM START TO INCREASE POPS AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AM.
SNOW LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 2-4.5KFT SUNDAY AM, LOWEST NEAR THE
CASCADES AND HIGHEST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THEY
MODERATE TO AROUND 3-6KFT IN THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE DROPPING
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SO TO START THIS LOOKS LIKE A MOUNTAIN
SNOW AND LOWLAND RAIN SYSTEM, UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN A MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWLANDS. SNOW AMOUNTS
OF 1-3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES AND AROUND 1
INCH NEAR LOOKOUT PASS. HOWEVER MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EVEN
POSSIBLE AROUND THE NORTHEAST WA MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, THE ID
PANHANDLE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, THE HIGHER PALOUSE (INCLUDING MAYBE
NEAR PULLMAN), AND THE CAMAS PRAIRIE, LARGELY FOR MONDAY AM.
MINOR MEANS TRACE TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE DRY AIR
INTRUSION INDICATED IT COULD BE A BIT BREEZIER THAN THE NBM
SHOWS, SO I DID BUMP UP THE SPEEDS/GUSTS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
GUSTS NEAR 15-30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. LINGERING GUSTS OF 10-20
MPH POSSIBLE ARE FORECAST MONDAY. THE STRONGEST OF THESE BOTH
DAYS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE CASCADES INTO CENTRAL WA. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S, WITH MONDAY BEING THE COOLEST DAY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S.
WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY: ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONGER
SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA ON WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING A WETTER SYSTEM THROUGH THE INLAND NW, FOLLOWED BY A
COOLER AND UNSTABLE TROUGH AND SHOWERY WEATHER OVER THE REGION
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE VALLEY RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX, MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND BREEZY
WINDS. A SOUTH TO NORTH ORIENTATION TO THE FRONT WILL EVEN GIVEN
THE OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS AND NE WASHINGTON MOUNTAINS SOME SNOW,
WITH A PERIOD OF WINTER TRAVEL LIKELY FOR ALL OF THE MOUNTAIN
PASSES. THE NBM 48 HOUR CHANCES OF 4 INCHES OR MORE IS 65%
AT SHERMAN PASS, 65% STEVENS PASS, AND 45% FOR LOOKOUT PASS.
NBM ALSO HAS A 25% CHANCE OF THE 48 HOUR TOTALS EXCEEDING 8
INCHES AT STEVENS PASSE AND 15% AT SHERMAN PASS.
RAIN AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.35 AND 0.70 INCHES ARE FORECAST IN THE
LOWLANDS, LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR SOUTHEAST WA TO THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE AND LOWER IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES AND CENTRAL WA AT
0.05 TO 0.15 INCHES. THE MAINSTEM RIVERS ARE LARGELY EXPECTED
TO HAVE ONLY MINOR RISES. HOWEVER SOME SWELLING OF SMALL STREAMS
AND CREEKS ARE POSSIBLE. EARLIER THIS WEEK, ON TUESDAY THE 24TH,
THERE WERE REPORTS OF FIELD FLOODING AND FLOODING IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS AROUND SOUTHEAST WA. THE WATER TABLE LIKELY IS
PRETTY HIGH THERE AT THE MOMENT AND SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING
TO MONITOR TOWARD NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL BREEZY AGAIN, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. DETAILS ARE
COMING TOGETHER BUT GUSTS NEAR 20-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE, LOCALLY
TO 40 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY IN THE THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S, WITH LOWS IN THE 30S WITH SOME MID-20S IN SOME OF THE
SHELTERED NORTHERN VALLEYS. /SOLVEIG
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH 00Z, THEN SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
00-18Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN WITH SPEEDS OF
LESS THAN 10 KTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 35 58 37 51 32 48 / 0 0 0 30 50 10
COEUR D'ALENE 35 57 37 49 33 48 / 0 0 0 40 70 30
PULLMAN 36 55 38 52 33 45 / 0 0 0 40 60 30
LEWISTON 38 61 42 58 39 51 / 0 0 0 20 50 30
COLVILLE 33 60 35 53 30 50 / 0 10 0 40 50 10
SANDPOINT 32 54 37 47 33 47 / 0 0 0 60 80 40
KELLOGG 37 55 38 48 34 43 / 0 0 0 60 80 50
MOSES LAKE 35 64 37 58 33 53 / 0 0 0 0 10 0
WENATCHEE 37 61 38 55 32 50 / 0 0 0 0 10 0
OMAK 33 61 37 57 32 53 / 0 0 0 10 10 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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