231
FXUS66 KOTX 140913
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
213 AM PDT TUE APR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A ROBUST COLD FRONT TO DELIVER VALLEY RAIN, MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND
GUSTY WINDS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BRING
LOWLAND RAIN, MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. SOME
SNOW WILL MAKE IT DOWN TO THE LOWLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ON THE TAIL END OF THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
TODAY TO THURSDAY: LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF AK DROPS INTO OUR
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY SHIFTS OUT THURSDAY. THIS
BRINGS MODEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD
COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL LARGELY IN THE MID 40S AND 50S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID-30S TO LOW 40S TONIGHT, THEN DROP INTO
THE MID-20S TO MID-30S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH MEANS
SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH TODAY FROM THE
WEST AS THE LOW APPROACHES, BECOMING LIKELY IN THE CASCADES AND
NORTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON AND OVER MOST OF
THE REMAINING CWA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER CENTRAL WA WHERE THE SHADOWING WILL
KEEP POPS TO AROUND 40-50%, HIGHEST TUESDAY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. OVERALL CHANCES START TO WANE FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND THEN START TO END COMPLETELY HEADING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ABOUT 15 PERCENT CHANCE FOR EMBEDDED
T-STORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
SNOW LEVELS AROUND 3.5-4.5KFT TUESDAY AFTERNOON DROP TO 2-3KFT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND 1-1.5KFT BY THURSDAY MORNING. SO LOOK FOR
MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWLAND RAIN TO START, CHANGING TO A LOWLAND MIX
OR EVEN ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES START TO WANE BY THEN, BUT IT STILL LEAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATION IN THE LOWLANDS THAT TIME
FRAME.
THE BIGGEST SNOW IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAIN PASSES.
HERE ARE SOME PROBABILITIES FROM TUESDAY TO THURSDAY MORNING
(48-HOURS):
2 4 6 8 12
STEVENS PASS 100% 95% 85% 65% 20%
SNOQUALMIE PASS 100% 85% 65% 45% 15%
LOOKOUT PASS 100% 80% 50% 35% 10%
SHERMAN PASS 50% 20% 5% 0% 0%
WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT OVER WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY
AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE OVER WESTERN OKANOGAN
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT; OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND NOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ID PANHANDLE, ABOVE 3000 FEET, FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE CHANCE FOR 0.1 INCHES OF SNOW AT SELECT LOCATIONS OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AM: PULLMAN 60%,
SANDPOINT 55%, SPOKANE 20%.
RAIN AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 TO 0.60 INCHES ARE FORECAST AROUND THE
EAST THIRD OF WA AND ID, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING AROUND SMALL STREAMS
AND CREEKS AND LEAD TO SOME PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND FIELD FLOODING. THE NWRFC FORECAST SOME RISES ON
MAINSTEM RIVERS INTO MIDWEEK, THOUGH NONE REACH ACTION STAGE.
PARADISE CREEK, HOWEVER, COULD APPROACH ACTION STAGE TOWARD LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SO THIS WILL BE MONITORED,
BECAUSE IT COULD EASILY PUSH ABOVE ACTION STAGE (OR MORE).
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY/GUSTY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SOUTHWEST
WINDS TODAY AT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-40 MPH. WINDS TURN MORE
WEST-NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS BUT
GUSTS AROUND 20-30 MPH.
FRIDAY TO MONDAY: HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER WEATHER COMES IN
FRIDAY, BUT ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND INCREASING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW CHANCES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE PRIMARY LOW STAYS OFF THE COAST UNTIL
MONDAY, SO POPS ARE 20-40%, UP TO NEAR 60% AT THE IMMEDIATE
CASCADE CREST AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY. IT WILL
BE A BIT BREEZY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL, EXCEPT
SUNDAY WHEN VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
/SOLVEIG
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING ARE FORECAST TO GIVE AWAY
TO MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR GEG/SFF/COE/PUW OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AM AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPANDS TO STRATUS. THIS LIFTS TOWARD
VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN FOR THE LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON, BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN WITH RAIN AND A RETURN TO MVFR AT
GEG/SFF/COE/PUW. RAIN CHANCES START NEAR THE EAT/MWH IN THE
LATER MORNING TO AFTERNOON AND EXPAND TOWARD THE EAST TOWARD
EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIKELY TOWARD 23-01Z. WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH GUSTS NEAR 20-30KTS
POSSIBLE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING;
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS AT GEG/SFF/COE/PUW
10-18Z, WITH HREF SHOWING AROUND 60-70% CHANCE. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 18-00Z, THEN MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS AT GEG/SFF/COE/PUW 00-06Z.
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS AT EAT/MWH/LWS WITH RAIN, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 51 38 49 30 49 29 / 50 90 70 30 30 0
COEUR D'ALENE 49 37 46 30 47 29 / 50 100 90 50 50 10
PULLMAN 51 38 44 29 44 29 / 20 90 100 60 50 10
LEWISTON 58 44 52 34 50 34 / 10 80 100 50 40 10
COLVILLE 52 35 51 28 53 26 / 80 90 60 30 30 0
SANDPOINT 46 37 44 30 45 28 / 80 100 90 60 70 20
KELLOGG 46 37 43 29 41 28 / 60 100 100 70 80 30
MOSES LAKE 57 40 56 30 58 31 / 30 30 30 10 0 0
WENATCHEE 55 37 52 34 55 34 / 40 50 20 10 0 0
OMAK 56 37 53 31 58 31 / 60 60 30 10 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR WESTERN OKANOGAN COUNTY.
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM PDT
THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS.
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