079
FXUS66 KOTX 150006
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
506 PM PDT TUE APR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A ROBUST COLD FRONT TO DELIVER VALLEY RAIN, MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY.
- DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BRING
LOWLAND RAIN, MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. SOME
SNOW WILL MAKE IT DOWN TO THE LOWLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ON THE TAIL END OF THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: A GULF OF ALASKA LOW CONTINUES
PUSHING A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR INTO THE
INLAND NORTHWEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS ARE AROUND HALF AN
INCH (120-140 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL). THE COLDER AIR WILL DROP
THE SNOW LEVELS FROM 4000FT TO 2000FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE WITH VALLEYS ALONG THE CASCADES AND
NORTHERN VALLEYS CHANGING FROM RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW MIX OR SNOW BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE CONFINED TO
ABOVE 3500FT AS GROUND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATION. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND A WARNING HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR MANY OF THE REGIONS MOUNTAIN PASSES THROUGH
THURSDAY. STEVENS PASS HAS A 25-75 PERCENT PROBABILITY SNOW
RANGE OF 11-13 INCHES. SHERMAN HAS A 4-5 INCHES RANGE. LOOKOUT
HAS A 9-14 INCH RANGE. SNOQUALMIE PASS HAS A 12-14 INCH RANGE.
MODELS ARE INDICATING WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAINS
OF THE REGION. THE STRONGEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER IS OVER
NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE THUNDER FOR THE CASCADES.
THE LOW IS ALSO TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS IT SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION. IT WILL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TONIGHT WITH GUSTS INTO THE
30-40 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE BASIN. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH
GUSTS 15-25 MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE IN THE TEENS.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DIP. WHILE THE
HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. THE LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN HAVE REACHED EARLY
GROWING SEASON. COLD SENSITIVE VEGETATION COULD BE IMPACTED. IF
WINDS REMAIN BREEZY, IT WILL LOWER THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN BEHIND THE
EXITING LOW. A DRY WARNING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE IS A
LOW MOVING NEAR COAST OF SOUTHERN OREGON ON MONDAY. DEPENDING ON
THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT, IT COULD LEAD TO LIGHT SHOWERS
RETURNING TO THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. /JDC
AVIATION
00Z TAFS: THE NEXT SYSTEM HAS MOVED IN, USHERING IN RAIN AND
LOWERING CEILINGS AT GEG, SFF, COE, AND PUW. AS THESE ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION MOVE THROUGH, CEILINGS WILL DROP TO MVFR. CEILINGS
MAY IMPROVE TO VFR BRIEFLY IN BETWEEN ROUNDS OF PRECIP. THERE
IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE FOR ALL SITES BUT PUW TO DROP FURTHER TO
IFR. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN TO IFR AT PUW AROUND
14-15Z. GUSTY WEST- SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT EACH
TAF SITE, WITH MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO HIT 25-30KTS.
BEHIND THE FRONT, COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN, WITH HREF SHOWING A
20-40% CHANCE OF A RAIN SNOW MIX AT GEG, SFF, COE, AND PUW
STARTING AROUND 18Z. HOWEVER, WHETHER THERMAL PROFILES WILL COOL
ENOUGH FOR MIXED RAIN/SNOW IS ONE OF THE MORE UNCERTAIN PARTS
OF THIS FORECAST, SINCE GFS/ECMWF WET BULB TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING AND INDICATE ONLY RAIN. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO
CLOSELY MONITOR. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ELEVATED EVEN AFTER
THE COLD FRONT PASSES, AND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MWH/EAT
WILL REMAIN AT VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND IS EXPECTED
TO SEE CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH AROUND 12Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH 18Z FOR ALL TAF
SITES. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS DROPPING TO MVFR WITH
PRECIPITATION AT GEG, SFF, COE, AND PUW. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
PUW DROPPING TO IFR STARTING AROUND 14-15Z. LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT GEG, SFF, COE, AND PUW STARTING
AROUND 18Z. MOST IMPACTFUL ALTERNATE SCENARIO WOULD BE EITHER
PRECIPITATION REMAINING RAIN OR STAYING AS A RAIN MIX LATER THAN
EXPECTED, WHICH WOULD REQUIRE AMENDMENTS. /AS
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 38 49 29 50 29 54 / 80 70 30 30 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 37 47 30 48 29 51 / 100 90 50 50 10 10
PULLMAN 37 44 29 45 29 50 / 90 90 60 50 10 10
LEWISTON 43 51 34 50 34 55 / 80 90 50 40 10 0
COLVILLE 34 52 27 54 26 59 / 90 60 30 30 0 0
SANDPOINT 37 45 30 46 29 51 / 100 90 60 70 20 20
KELLOGG 36 42 28 42 29 46 / 100 90 70 80 30 40
MOSES LAKE 39 56 30 58 30 60 / 30 20 10 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 37 51 33 55 34 59 / 50 20 10 0 0 0
OMAK 35 53 31 58 32 61 / 50 20 10 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MOSES LAKE AREA-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-
WENATCHEE AREA.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKANOGAN
HIGHLANDS.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR WESTERN
CHELAN COUNTY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR WESTERN
OKANOGAN COUNTY.
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM PDT
THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS.
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